Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 2A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

99.65 Fort Campbell

83.60 DeSales

82.95 Murray

80.75 Newport Central Catholic

79.50 Prestonsburg

78.05 Corbin

72.80 Green County

71.30 Holy Cross (Covington)

68.90 Trigg County

65.80 Caldwell County

64.75 Danville

64.55 Christian Academy-Louisville

63.00 Shelby Valley

57.80 Owensboro Catholic

57.40 Glasgow

54.00 Middlesboro

53.50 Lloyd Memorial

52.85 Bardstown

52.65 Heath

48.30 Hancock County

47.50 Newport

45.45 Monroe County

42.90 Metcalfe County

41.00 Washington County

38.75 Reidland

35.60 Owen County

33.45 Carroll County

33.30 Leslie County

27.45 Knott County Central

25.80 Morgan County

24.05 Fort Knox

22.20 Bath County

9.20 Todd County Central

 

 

Region 1

(4)Todd Co. Central @ (1) Murray - MHS by 79.75

(3) Heath @ (2) Hancock Co. - HC by 1.65

(4) Caldwell Co. @ (1) Fort Campbell - FC by 39.85

(3) Owensboro Catholic @ (2) Trigg County - TC by 17.1

Region 2

(4) Fort Knox @ (1) Green Co. - GC by 54.75

(3) Glasgow @ (2) Danville - DHS by 13.35

(4) Metcalfe Co. @ (1) Bardstown - BHS by 15.95

(3) Washington Co. @ (2) Monroe Co. - MC by 10.45

Region 3

(4) Newport @ (1) DeSales - DHS by 42.1

(3) Owen Co. @ (2) Cov. Holy Cross - HC by 41.7

(4) Carroll Co. @ (1) Newport Cent. Cath. - NCC by 53.3

(3) Christian Acad.-LOU @ (2) Lloyd Memorial - CAL by 17.05

Region 4

(4) Knott Co. Central @ (1) Prestonsburg - PHS by 58.05

(3) Bath Co. @ (2) Middlesboro - MHS by 37.8

(4) Morgan Co. @ (1) Corbin - CHS by 58.25

(3) Leslie Co. @ (2) Shelby Valley - SV by 35.7

Thanks for sharing.

 

Does the HRS change throughout the playoffs, or will they remain the same?

 

Later.

Thanks for sharing.

 

Does the HRS change throughout the playoffs, or will they remain the same?

 

Later.

 

 

It will be updated as the Lit and Cantrall Ratings are updated.

 

If there is a week where either/both are not published, then I'll just revert back to the previous week's numbers.

I could see Danville pulling off the upset tonight. Good field conditions. Coach Harp in the bone running counter could be a big night for the ADS.

Do not think Monroe Co. should be rated that low lost to Green Co. by 7 and beat Glasgow by 14.

I could see Danville pulling off the upset tonight. Good field conditions. Coach Harp in the bone running counter could be a big night for the ADS.

 

I don't know if I read you correctly, I thought if Glasgow beat Danville it was an upset.

 

Glasgow is lower seeded and lower ranked.. Danville also has the homefield advantage?