Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 6A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

St. Xavier 126.35

Trinity (Louisville) 118.60

Madison Central 97.15

Scott County 96.40

Boone County 95.05

Henry Clay 93.55

DuPont Manual 93.05

Pleasure Ridge Park 92.80

Henderson County 92.45

Male 89.65

Eastern 88.80

Daviess County 88.75

Ballard 88.15

Ryle 86.40

Fern Creek 85.80

Lafayette 84.20

Simon Kenton 83.05

Madisonville-North Hopkins 82.20

Seneca 81.90

Conner 81.35

Campbell County 80.50

George Rogers Clark 79.05

Shelby County 77.40

Greenwood 76.05

North Hardin 74.70

Apollo 73.55

Graves County 73.05

Meade County 71.30

Bullitt Central 70.70

Marshall County 70.00

Tates Creek 69.60

Central Hardin 68.55

Butler 68.45

Nelson County 66.50

Southern 63.00

Paul L. Dunbar 60.25

Cooper 37.10

 

 

 

Region 1

Seneca at Daviess County – DC by 12.85

Madisonville-North Hopkins at Eastern – Eastern by 12.6

Graves County at Trinity – Trinity by 51.55

Ballard at Henderson County – HC by 10.3

 

Region 2

Butler at Greenwood – G’wood by 13.6

North Hardin at DuPont Manual – M by 24.35

Nelson County at St. Xavier – X by 67.85

Pleasure Ridge Park at Meade County – PRP by 15.5

 

Region 3

Paul L. Dunbar at Boone County – BC by 40.8

Ryle at Henry Clay – HC by 19.15

Simon Kenton at Lafayette – LHS by 7.15

Tates Creek at Conner – Conner by 17.75

 

Region 4

Shelby County at Male – H by 18.25

Bullitt Central at Madison Central – MC by 32.45

Southern at Scott County – SC by 39.4

George Rogers Clark at Fairdale – FHS by 12.75

Fairdale is a 4A school. Did you mean Fern Creek?

 

[/size]

Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 6A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

St. Xavier 126.35

Trinity (Louisville) 118.60

Madison Central 97.15

Scott County 96.40

Boone County 95.05

Henry Clay 93.55

DuPont Manual 93.05

Pleasure Ridge Park 92.80

Henderson County 92.45

Male 89.65

Eastern 88.80

Daviess County 88.75

Ballard 88.15

Ryle 86.40

Fern Creek 85.80

Lafayette 84.20

Simon Kenton 83.05

Madisonville-North Hopkins 82.20

Seneca 81.90

Conner 81.35

Campbell County 80.50

George Rogers Clark 79.05

Shelby County 77.40

Greenwood 76.05

North Hardin 74.70

Apollo 73.55

Graves County 73.05

Meade County 71.30

Bullitt Central 70.70

Marshall County 70.00

Tates Creek 69.60

Central Hardin 68.55

Butler 68.45

Nelson County 66.50

Southern 63.00

Paul L. Dunbar 60.25

Cooper 37.10

 

 

 

Region 1

Seneca at Daviess County – DC by 12.85

Madisonville-North Hopkins at Eastern – Eastern by 12.6

Graves County at Trinity – Trinity by 51.55

Ballard at Henderson County – HC by 10.3

 

Region 2

Butler at Greenwood – G’wood by 13.6

North Hardin at DuPont Manual – M by 24.35

Nelson County at St. Xavier – X by 67.85

Pleasure Ridge Park at Meade County – PRP by 15.5

 

Region 3

Paul L. Dunbar at Boone County – BC by 40.8

Ryle at Henry Clay – HC by 19.15

Simon Kenton at Lafayette – LHS by 7.15

Tates Creek at Conner – Conner by 17.75

 

Region 4

Shelby County at Male – H by 18.25

Bullitt Central at Madison Central – MC by 32.45

Southern at Scott County – SC by 39.4

George Rogers Clark at Fairdale – FHS by 12.75

Fairdale is a 4A school. Did you mean Fern Creek?

 

[/size]

 

Yeah. Sorry about that. I'm going to repost the entire thing with the corrected school. My bad.

Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 6A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

St. Xavier 126.35

Trinity (Louisville) 118.60

Madison Central 97.15

Scott County 96.40

Boone County 95.05

Henry Clay 93.55

DuPont Manual 93.05

Pleasure Ridge Park 92.80

Henderson County 92.45

Male 89.65

Eastern 88.80

Daviess County 88.75

Ballard 88.15

Ryle 86.40

Fern Creek 85.80

Lafayette 84.20

Simon Kenton 83.05

Madisonville-North Hopkins 82.20

Seneca 81.90

Conner 81.35

Campbell County 80.50

George Rogers Clark 79.05

Shelby County 77.40

Greenwood 76.05

North Hardin 74.70

Apollo 73.55

Graves County 73.05

Meade County 71.30

Bullitt Central 70.70

Marshall County 70.00

Tates Creek 69.60

Central Hardin 68.55

Butler 68.45

Nelson County 66.50

Southern 63.00

Paul L. Dunbar 60.25

Cooper 37.10

 

 

 

Region 1

Seneca at Daviess County – DC by 12.85

Madisonville-North Hopkins at Eastern – Eastern by 12.6

Graves County at Trinity – Trinity by 51.55

Ballard at Henderson County – HC by 10.3

 

Region 2

Butler at Greenwood – G’wood by 13.6

North Hardin at DuPont Manual – M by 24.35

Nelson County at St. Xavier – X by 67.85

Pleasure Ridge Park at Meade County – PRP by 15.5

 

Region 3

Paul L. Dunbar at Boone County – BC by 40.8

Ryle at Henry Clay – HC by 19.15

Simon Kenton at Lafayette – LHS by 7.15

Tates Creek at Conner – Conner by 17.75

 

Region 4

Shelby County at Male – H by 18.25

Bullitt Central at Madison Central – MC by 32.45

Southern at Scott County – SC by 39.4

George Rogers Clark at Fern Creek – FC by 12.75

You just about nailed the St. X - Nelson County differential. 72-7.

ttt

Would have nailed Boone Co. game too but put in all their young kids that gave up 15 points.

Almost nailed Trinity Graves as well.