On Sunday, a powerful upper trough will move across the Plains, rapidly deepening as it progresses toward the Midwest. A surface low will track across northern Missouri into Illinois, with a cold front extending southwestward across Missouri, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas. As low-level moisture improves, instability will build, particularly into the late afternoon, with values potentially reaching 1000 J/kg in parts of Arkansas and Texas.

The most significant threat will be from a developing squall line during the evening across parts of Kentucky, which may produce widespread wind damage and a few tornadoes. The shear environment will be strong, with southerly winds at 850 mb exceeding 70 knots, contributing to a strongly forced squall line. Although instability at low levels will remain somewhat limited, the strong forcing and wind shear should support the development of severe storms capable of significant wind gusts and tornadoes.

Areas at greatest risk include central and western Kentucky, where the squall line is expected to reach by late evening or overnight. The threat of wind damage and a few embedded tornadoes will be highest, with storm evolution likely becoming clearer as the event nears. Severe weather is expected to persist into Monday morning across parts of the region.

According to the Storm Prediction Center's day three outlook, parts of western Kentucky are under a level 3 out of 5 enhanced risk area for storms on Sunday. Eastward to about I-75 is a level 2 out of 5 slight risk area.

Many of these locations have a CIG 1 intensity level. There is a 30% chance of damaging wind gusts of 75 mph in the enhanced risk area. A supercell environment with hail larger than 2 inches in diameter is possible. Tornadoes rated as EF2+. These occur at a 15% chance in the slight risk area. 

This is a developing situation. Everyone should continue to check for updates. 

 

 

 

 

@theguru

Conference call scheduled for this afternoon by the NWS-Louisville office for media and emergency managers. 

The severe threat is increasing. This appears to be mainly a nighttime event. As of now, the main threats are damaging winds of 60-70 mph. Spin-up tornadoes are possible. 

With this being a nighttime event, have multiple ways to get watches and warnings. On the conference call they suggested that when you go to sleep, have your shoes and clothes close by your bed. Maybe go to bed with shorts and a t-shirt or something similar. 

The level 3 enhanced risk area has been expanded eastward to just beyond I-65. The level 2 slight risk area extends to the east of I-75

Those in western Kentucky should be alert Sunday evening and night.

 

 

The weather forecast for Kentucky and Cincinnati from Sunday into Sunday night indicates significant activity due to an approaching cold front. Throughout the day, gusty southerly winds are expected, with peak gusts potentially reaching 40-60 mph, particularly in regions near the front's arrival. This situation could lead to isolated wind damage, especially in southern Indiana, western Kentucky, and parts of Ohio.

As the afternoon transitions into evening, thunderstorms are anticipated to develop alongside the advancing cold front, with the highest chances for severe weather occurring between 4 PM and midnight. The primary threats during this period will consist of powerful, gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and the risk of tornadoes, especially in the late evening as storms may form into a squall line. This line of storms is expected to progress eastward through Kentucky and southern Ohio from 9 PM until midnight.

The cold front will continue moving eastward overnight, with the squall line reaching Kentucky and Cincinnati by midnight. A moderate risk of tornadoes exists in the area, particularly ahead of the front where moisture and instability coincide with strong wind shear. Heavy rain, localized flooding, and gusty winds are likely to persist throughout the night, with the front clearing the region by early Monday morning, ushering in cooler and drier conditions for the start of the workweek.

Keep an eye on updates throughout the day, as conditions may shift rapidly.

 

 

 

 

 

Latest forecast:

The weather forecast for Kentucky and the Cincinnati area from Sunday to Monday indicates a period of instability. An advancing upper trough from the Plains will bring a strengthening jet streak that will impact the region. As the late afternoon and evening approach, strong southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front, allowing moisture to flow into the Ohio Valley.

This setup will create an environment conducive to severe thunderstorms, particularly from late afternoon into the evening hours. Storms are anticipated to form along the cold front, stretching from southern Illinois into southeast Missouri, and will reach Kentucky by late afternoon. These storms are likely to produce damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, especially as they intensify during the evening. The risk of tornadoes will rise as the front advances eastward, with the threat of strong winds and tornadoes extending from southern Illinois and Indiana to western Kentucky, Tennessee, and northeast Arkansas.

As the cold front moves rapidly southeast overnight, the possibility of severe weather will persist across Kentucky and Cincinnati, with concerns about damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remaining. Conditions are expected to stay conducive for strong storms into the night, and if development occurs, a conditional risk of tornadoes could extend into Alabama and Georgia.

By Monday morning, the front will have passed, but some storm activity may still be present, primarily affecting the southern and eastern regions of Kentucky. It is advisable to remain vigilant for hazardous conditions, including significant wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and the possibility of tornadoes

 

 

I'm going to go ahead and make Sunday a BGP Severe Weather Alert Day. This will happen at night, and the threat level is rising. The tornado threat for western Kentucky has gone up to about 15% with a CIG 1 intensity level. This means that a tornado that forms could be as strong as EF2+ or more. This area includes the cities of Murray, Paducah, Owensboro, and Bowling Green. There is a 10% chance of this happening in the brown area and a 2% chance of it happening in the green area.

 

The threat of damaging winds has also increased. In the pink area, there is a 45% chance of damaging winds with gusts up to 74 mph. In the orange area, a 30% chance, and in the yellow, a 15% chance. 

 

@theguru

Wow, up to possibly 75mph winds.

At least where I reside, in Zone 2 (the yellow) in that video, the worst it looks like are gusts of up to 40mph.

Then crazy cold again on Monday, ugh.

According to the most recent model projections, Kentucky and the Cincinnati area are expected to face a considerable risk of severe weather later today. A strengthening surface cyclone is set to move northeast, accompanied by the 850 mb jet streak, which will mainly influence the lower Great Lakes region by the afternoon. A robust southerly flow, reaching speeds of 40-50 knots, will extend across the Mid-South and into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee, facilitating moisture return as surface dew points rise into the low 60s Fahrenheit.

In the Ohio Valley, prefrontal moisture is anticipated to be somewhat sparse, resulting in modest CAPE values. Nevertheless, this drier environment prior to convection might allow for stronger winds to be mixed down to the surface, potentially exceeding the wind speeds generated by thunderstorms. There is still a chance of wind gusts surpassing 60 mph, particularly with the formation of a pre-frontal squall line that will progress eastward through the Mississippi Valley and into the lower Ohio Valley.

Late afternoon into evening presents an opportunity for discrete supercell development, especially in western Kentucky as the squall line moves forward. If such development occurs, the likelihood of stronger tornadoes increases. However, the overall tornado risk may be limited to meso-vortices (a small, intense whirl of rotating air that can form within larger storm systems, such as squall lines) along the front edge of the squall line, particularly in the more humid regions of the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South.

Be prepared for substantial wind gusts and potentially damaging storms, especially from late afternoon into the evening, with an elevated risk for tornadoes as the squall line continues to evolve and advance eastward.

Stay informed with the latest weather alerts throughout the day.

The period covered by the following maps is from 7 pm EDT Sunday to 8 am EDT Monday. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An upper-level trough will gradually deepen and become negatively tilted. Between 5 and 6 p.m. EDT, a jet streak of about 65-100 kts will pass through the trough's entrance region. Around this time, the jet streak will enter the exit region, causing dew points to reach the 60s. This will allow strong to severe storms to develop in western Kentucky. Individual cells begin to form during this time, as visible on the HRRR radar. These individual cells are worth keeping an eye on because they will be in an area with potentially favorable tornadogenesis conditions. 

The individual storms will congeal into a line of storms around 10 pm EDT as the system moves into areas less conducive for tornado development. At this time it will become more of a damaging wind event.

 

 

The Storm Prediction Center just sent these out. There is now a 15% chance that a tornado could form in western Kentucky. If one does, it is expected that the maximum intensity be EF2+. They could be weaker or stronger. 

 

 

 

 

Update from the NWS-Louisville office:

 

 

Look at this Monster!