With the first round of the regional now complete and the semifinals not starting until Monday, let's go ahead and jump in to looking back at the first 4 games of the tournament. We will finish off with a look at the semifinal matchups and what could be in store in the finals.

 

Lincoln County 51, Wayne County 40 - The hosting Patriots kicked off the tournament through a solid fourth quarter performance, outscoring the Cardinals 19 to 6 in the final period. Wayne County was leading 34 to 32 heading into the 4th in what had been a back and forth game up to that point. The Patriots had double-digit scoring performances from Tramane Alcorn, Colton Ralston and Jackson Sims and the Cardinals were led, per usual, by Kendall Phillips and Mason Burchett. 

West Jessamine 70 Rockcastle 50 - This proved to be the most lopsided matchup of the first round. Walker Craig scored 26 of the Rockets' 50, but, as we talked about in the preview, the one-man star power was not enough against the depth of West Jessamine. The game was never really in question and the Colts move on.

Pulaski 65, Mercer County 48 - Though the Maroons pulled away in the end, this game was back and forth all the way into the 3rd. Trevor Ellis scored 19 to lead the Titans. Pulaski's three-headed monster of Fraley, Lancaster and Williams were not to be contained and each did what was needed to eventually beat down the Mercer defense and open the flood gates late.

McCreary County Central 48, Boyle County 44 - The absence of Montavin Quisenberry loomed large as the crowd missed out on what could have been an epic matchup between Kyle Stephens and Quisenberry. Kyle Stephens put the Raiders on his back as they thwarted the best efforts of Jakei Tarter, Avery Bodner and the Rebels.

Semifinal Preview

Lincoln County vs. West Jessamine - This is a rematch of a December matchup between the two regional powers that also took place at Lincoln. The Patriots held the final edge over the Colts 71 to 68 in overtime. Jacob Jones had 21 and Daniel Waters had 19 for the Colts. That game was one of four 70-plus offensive performances the Patriots had this year as Tramane Alcorn led the way with 19. What is surprising about that game is that Colton Ralston was held in check, going 0 for 5 from three. Alcorn had his 19 points off 17 shots. I do not expect the semifinal game to mirror the first game at all with both teams being efficient on both sides of the ball and creating a back and forth game that ends somewhere in the high fifties or low sixties.

Pulaski County vs. McCreary County Central - This is another rematch of an early December game. On December 6th, Pulaski bested the Raiders 67 to 57 behind 21 points from Cayden Lancaster and 20 from Barek Williams. Kyle Stephens was held to 16 and overall the Raiders shot 2 of 13 from long distance. McCreary has done a lot of evolving since then and Pulaski has struggled some down the stretch. It will be interesting to see how these two measure up since that early season contest. The rebounding difference was just by 3 in favor of Pulaski last time so it really seems to have come down to shooting and offensive efficiency. How much will being on a neutral court this time as opposed to being at Pulaski County play a part? Pulaski is the better and deeper team on paper but when you break this down, the Raiders have a legitimate shot. 

Championship Game Thoughts

Lincoln County has beat both McCreary and Pulaski and when it comes to the Maroons, they really just devastated them. West Jessamine has not faced McCreary and fell to Pulaski in early December when the Colts had yet to hit their stride and Pulaski was beginning their red hot start to the year. With that said, it is obvious that whoever wins the Lincoln County vs. West Jessamine matchup will be the favorite in the title game. McCreary or Pulaski could certainly win, no doubt, but they haven't been on the same tier as Lincoln or West in the last month or so. West is the deepest team left, followed by Lincoln and Pulaski in no real certain order with McCreary in the rear. That certainly matters. Final note - I think the championship game is probably destined to be in the mid sixties with the exception that I think West Jessamine has the potential to blow out McCreary running away just based on style and depth. Not that that would happen, but it could. End of the day, this final four should produce some fantastic games and a champion who will represent the region well in the Sweet 16.

Semifinals Prediction 

Lincoln Co. 62 West Jessamine 54. Home court will loom large, and I expect the Patriots to play better.  They haven’t shot the ball great collectively this postseason, and due a breakout night.  I’ll admit I’m less familiar with the Colts than any team in the region.  They physically look the part, and if they can control the backboards that would be huge against a smaller Lincoln Co. Team.  They’re filled with veterans and a great coach that can certainly knock the Patriots off.
 

Pulaski Co. 65 McCreary Central 58. I’ve advocated more than anyone on here for the Raiders.  They’re a tough/veteran group that are led by the best end to end player in the Region Kyle Stephen, but the Maroons have a bully guard of their own with Carson Fraley.  Lancaster will play better (he struggled with early foul trouble against Mercer).  The Raiders will need a better performance out of Maddox McKinney to pull off the upset. 

Monday night should be two great games! 

I’m picking West in a close one and Pulaski by double digits. I think Lincoln’s home court advantage does matter but that West is the better, more talented team.

West Jessamine will need more production from Gavin Salva if they want to pull the upset. He's the difference maker. I think Pulaski will win setting-up Lincoln vs Pulaski in the Championship game. 

I like West 58-53 in the first matchup. I think their size and physicality plays a huge factor in this one. in the second semi I like PC 66-55 MCC does not have enough firepower.