On 1/14/2023 at 7:41 PM, Statsdontlie said:

How is 14-5 inconsistent? Danville don't really have a bad loss. 

 

2 hours ago, LethalPG said:

I don't understand this energy.  For example, Wayne Co. (who is 11-7) has beat Boyle, Garrard and DCA.  I'll give you Lincoln being consensus #1 but any of the other 4 teams can be beat by other teams in the region.  It is collectively the best district (it usually is), but Lincoln is the top dog and the other teams are similar to the rest of the region.

I understand that sentiment. The other teams in the district have proven to be very bearable. Not as good as I had expected, but I think that’s true about the region overalll. I still think it’s easily the best district top to bottom.

1 hour ago, se7ens said:

At the end of the day, there will be two teams from the 45th, with the likelihood that one of them will be Lincoln, then most likely West Jessamine, Mercer County, Pulaski County, Somerset, McCreary and Wayne. That of course is barring upset, the most vulnerable from that list being Somerset. I really feel like the best chances of winning the region are as follows:

1. Lincoln County

2. West Jessamine

3. Pulaski County

4. Wayne

5. McCreary

6. DCA

7. Boyle

8. Danville

9. Garrard

10. Somerset

I don't believe anyone outside this ten can win the region. I believe the winner of the region comes out of the top 5. I think Lincoln wins the district and whoever is runner-up is going to have just a gauntlet to run through to the title, including having a chance to face Lincoln in the title game for what could possibly be the fourth time.

So, yes, it is an amazing district, honestly I think Lincoln has the only legitimate chance to win the region out of the 45th. I definitely could be wrong but I don't think I am.

I agree with your top 3 but, after that, it gets really fuzzy. DCA isn’t playing up their potential, at least not at this point. After that, I think your 4-8 are a complete toss up.

 

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, QueenoftheSouth said:

 

I understand that sentiment. The other teams in the district have proven to be very bearable. Not as good as I had expected, but I think that’s true about the region overalll. I still think it’s easily the best district top to bottom.

I agree, but I don't think the 47th is that far off.  Wayne and McCreary could beat anyone in the 45th outside of Lincoln Co.  And in Wayne's case have, and I wouldn't call this an historically strong Wayne Co. Team.

Just now, LethalPG said:

I agree, but I don't think the 47th is that far off.  Wayne and McCreary could beat anyone in the 45th outside of Lincoln Co.  And in Wayne's case have, and I wouldn't call this an historically strong Wayne Co. Team.

48th I meant.

1 hour ago, LethalPG said:

I think this is a good synopsis of where it currently sits.  I would add SW is improving, and I could see them beating McCreary or Wayne in neutral site game.  I would agree Somerset is vulnerable with their PG out.  They are playing a few FR and an 8th grader right now, so future is bright.  At this point, I would be surprised if anyone other than Lincoln Co. is representing the 12th @ State.  I've liked West Jess. all year as the biggest threat to the crown, and nothing has changed my mind on that.  Their team this year is similar makeup to the Covid year team that got hot, and ran the table!   

I originally had a list out to 14 typed out and Southwestern was my 11th. Could they make the regional? Absolutely. But honestly, I don't see them beating Lincoln, West Jessamine, or Pulaski County, one of their three likely opponents if they get there. So I really don't believe they have a legitimate chance at the title. Somerset is the cutoff for me. A full strength Somerset would be very dangerous.

The problem with Lincoln County was demonstrated in their wins over Boyle and Garrard - sometimes they don't push the pace of scoring against teams with less overall talent and one or two dominant producers can make it a competitive game. If I'm Lincoln, I want to avoid Wayne County, McCreary County and West Jessamine. Ideal draw would, in my opinion, would be getting Mercer County in the first round and being on the same side as Pulaski. I think a road of Mercer, Pulaski, and whoever the other side produces is the best while the loser of the 48th, winner of a Somerset/West Jessamine matchup, and whoever the other side produces is the worst. 

Again, what is funny is that there is a very real chance that Lincoln could get upset in the district semis. Not that it is what is probable, but it is very much possible.