Oldham County vs. South Oldham Predications/Updates

[ColonelMike]

Oldham County and South Oldham play their first game of the season this Saturday against each other in a key district 29 seeding contest.

What:  Oldham County Colonels (0-0) vs. South Oldham Dragons (0-0)

Where:  Oldham County HS, Buckner, KY

When:  Saturday, 1/16/2021      Throw in  at 7:30 pm  

Broadcast Coverage:  Live video coverage of the game will begin at 6:30 pm on the Pegasus Sports Network at www.pegasussportsky.com

Oldham won both meetings between the two schools last year, 64-59 in January 2020 and 88-85 in the District 29 championship.

This has been one of the most hotly-contested games in the region every year and features the two winningest programs in the 8th Region over the last five seasons.

Oldham has won 9 of the last 12 meetings between the two schools, but the games have almost all been close.   In the last 12 matchups, six have been decided by six points or less (including the last four games, all decided by 3-5 points).   Of the four decided by double figures, South won two games by ten points each; Oldham won by 21 in 2018 and by 14 in 2016, both times in the District 29 finals.

The two teams have played in the District 29 finals for five consecutive years and 7 of the last 8.    Oldham won six of those seven meetings, although the Dragons had the last laugh in 2013, when Oldham won the district title game, 59-52, only to fall to the Dragons in the Region 8 championship game, 58-48.

This game kicks off the season with a huge contrast:  Oldham returns four starters (Doug Oak, Tyler Slone, Xander Wagner-Rose, and Sam Campbell) from last year's 8th Region runner-ups, and a fifth starter (Grant Gibson) who played probably half the available minutes at point guard.    South Oldham graduated ten seniors from last year's region tournament team, returning only 6'6" Ben Michel.

The winner may well be who can kick off the rust soonest!

Thoughts!

CM

Live video coverage begins at 6:30 pm on www.pegasussportsky.com

[ColonelMike]

Key players to watch:

In Game 1 of the season, ALL of them, BUT...

For South, I'm really going to be watching these two early on:

- Ben Michel - the 6'6" junior took a back-seat in the stats columns last year to that big senior class, which included 2019 8th Region POY Luke Morrison and all-region guard Seth Johnson.    But Michel, who is the only returning South starter, poses a real challenge for opponents' defenses.   He is a legitimate three point shooting threat from the outside - pretty much a must for any player at South - and creates a defensive dilemma.   Is your "big" mobile enough to go out and challenge him on the perimeter?  Or do you try to guard him with a guard who may be only 6'0" tall?  A good ballhandler, Michel is also a threat to penetrate to the rim.

- Cole Davis - Davis takes over the reins at point guard for South, and gets a baptism of fire right out of the gate.  To beat Oldham, you have to be able to overcome the Colonels' 32 minutes of full-court pressure.   Davis - who had very few minutes with the varsity last year - doesn't get a warm-up game.   How he handles the press may be decisive in terms of South's success.

For Oldham County...

- Grant Gibson - Gibson is the only player who didn't start last year for Oldham, but he pretty much split the time at PG with Steven Votaw, so he's hardly inexperienced.   That said, his backup is unproven; there likely won't be a fresh sub waiting at the table constantly to keep his legs fresh - at least not in the first few games of the season - like there was last year.   Gibson's ability to run the offense is unquestioned, but the pressure of logging significantly more minutes will provide him with a new challenge.

- Xander Wagner-Rose - Wagner-Rose is one of my candidates for a potential breakout season, after averaging around 10 ppg last year.   On a balanced OC team, his point totals may not go up much, but he just might be able to challenge the double-double plateau this year.   A mobile 6'7", he's usually going to be the biggest player on the court, and has the quickness to out-position his counterpart on the other team.

It's game one for these two teams, so everyone is under the coaches' microscopes Saturday.   If anything like most Oldham-South games, this one will be fun, even if it is full of game one sloppiness.

Pegasus goes on the air with coverage with a special one hour pre-game show Saturday at 6:30 pm.   www.pegasussportsky.com

CM

[Mojocat]

"Oldham has won 9 of the last 12 meetings between the two schools, but the games have almost all been close."

Wow.  Didn't know that was the case.  I suspect it will soon be 10 of 13.  If there was ever a year when South Oldham could take off the entire summer, skip most of the fall, and get only a portion of its normal practice time in before playing the first game.....it's not this year.  Replacing 10 seniors would be tough under any circumstances.  Under Covid.....well, we'll see how this develops.  OC, meanwhile, is at the complete other end of the spectrum.  They return the  top 5 scorers - and have a 6th player (6'10 Hayden Burgess) that I think may turn out to be really good.  Saw him at the JV level last year - he's frail, or was.  If he has added some strength, will be hard to contend with down low for most teams.  I'm not into moral victories, but as a South fan, my hope is they find a way to keep it close.......

 

[ColonelMike]

I've called these games ever since South was opened in 1989....these games are like U of L vs. UK .....records, expectations, common sense....none mean anything.   It's almost always flat out war.

[ColonelMike]

It will be a little different in the gym.  Pegasus will set up on the concourse.   Check out the live stream beginning at 6:30 pm tomorrow at www.pegasussportsky.com

FINALLY - time for basketball in the OC....

[ConverseAllStar]

1 hour ago, ColonelMike said:

I've called these games ever since South was opened in 1989....these games are like U of L vs. UK .....records, expectations, common sense....none mean anything.   It's almost always flat out war.

CM - If this game is a "flat out war", it will resemble the Anglo-Zanzibar War of 1896 (supposedly the shortest war of all time).  I see Oldham County's depth, experience, and size overwhelming the Dragons this time around.

 

[ColonelMike]

45 minutes ago, ConverseAllStar said:

CM - If this game is a "flat out war", it will resemble the Anglo-Zanzibar War of 1896 (supposedly the shortest war of all time).  I see Oldham County's depth, experience, and size overwhelming the Dragons this time around.

 

😄  On paper, you're probably right.   If I'm handicapping this game, it's hard not to conclude that Oldham wins this one, probably by a healthy margin.   The Colonels have all the tangible advantages on their side.

But I cover both teams, and have come to learn that Steve Simpson is just about one of the best in the business.   It's a one-game affair, not a series....if this South team can shoot as well as prior Steve Simpson teams - and the jury's out in that regard - then who knows?

We'll see....but without a doubt, Oldham goes into this game as a strong favorite.

I like the Anglo-Zanzibar War analogy....  😄  I had to look it up....fascinating.

[ColonelMike]

I will post updates as I can tonight from Buckner.

CM

[ColonelMike]

Half

South Oldham 33

Oldham County 29

Ben Michel with 12 points in the first quarter for South....

[ColonelMike]

Oldham 45 - 40 with 1:57 to go in third

[ColonelMike]

end of three

Oldham County 47 South Oldham 40

 

[ColonelMike]

Final

Oldham County 59 South Oldham 51