March 2, 20206 yr Since it appears this could be a nighttime event I'm issuing a Severe Weather Alert Day for portions of western Kentucky. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of western Kentucky. At the surface, a cold front initially stretching from the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward to western Texas will advance eastward with time, reaching a position form New England to southeast Texas by Tuesday. This front will focus a zone of convection for parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the overnight hours. There is substantial model differences that exist with respect to the degree of cap erosion. Simply put, a cap is a layer of air above a cooler layer of air. for air to rise. you need the air above it to be cooler. so the below air does not move upward in that situation., as the lower level of air is heated up through the day, it becomes warmer than the air above it. so then it rises. and the cap is broken. The HRRR and NAM forecasts are the most aggressive with the elimination of capping by late afternoon resulting in an uncapped unstable environment. This plus favorable shear across the region would support at least isolated supercell storms. Since the HRRR/NAM models are consistently more bullish on the severe threat an upgrade to a category 2 Slight Risk appears reasonable. The primary risk appears to be hail, but locally damaging winds and even a couple of tornadoes would be possible. The timing, for now, appears to be from around 6 pm to 11 pm EDT. The following simulations are from 6 pm Monday to 6 am EDT Tuesday morning Radar EHI Supercell Significant Tornado Parameter
March 2, 20206 yr Author As expected the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the threat for later today. It also has expanded the area to include more of Kentucky that could see strong to severe storms later today. Western Kentucky and portions of southcentral Kentucky are now in a category 2 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms. I am also issuing a BGP Level 1 Tornado threat for western Kentucky and portions of southcentral Kentucky. A category 1 Marginal Risk Area has been expanded eastward. It is now south and west of a line from around Louisville down to Williamsburg. I will be watching this situation closely and post an update whenever possible.
March 2, 20206 yr Author The severe threat is on the increase for western Kentucky. Conditions are continuing to make it possible for severe storms to develop this evening. These storms could produce hail (perhaps significant) expected with the stronger storms. A weather watch may be issued in the next hour or so.
March 5, 20206 yr Crazy hail in the town of Kevil. Yup! Kid you not, I had 5-6 minutes of hail. So now I get to come up with $1k for my roof deductible and $500 for the wife’s car deductible. Fortunately my truck wasn’t home at the time.
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