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4A North Oldham at 6A Oldham County Predictions/Updates

Who wins? 7 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins?

    • North Oldham
      14%
    • Oldham County
      85%

Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Featured Replies

OK, where's the various HS fans in Oldham County....

 

North Oldham - after showing improvement over the last three years, going from 0 wins to 2 wins to 4 wins last season, the Mustangs stumbled out of the gate last week and are looking at a tough task to improve on last year's win total against a tough schedule. North Bullitt took the Mustangs' measure last week, 40-14, and NO is now looking at a schedule where they will be favored in only one or two games (likely). Among their opponents will be a brutal district featuring Franklin County, Shelby County, defending 3A state champ Central, and Waggener. North also has to face in-counties foes South Oldham (5A state semi-finalist last year, 12 wins) and 6A Oldham County, which won 10 games last year. Both return considerable talent for the 2019 campaign. This week, the opponent is Oldham County.

 

North has some playmakers - both proven and unproven - but the offensive backfield could be special as they mature. Senior QB Blake McAfee takes over from his older brother as the signal caller, and should fare better when working under center. A mobile QB, McAfee is a threat as a passer and a runner. Behind him, North features two sophomore speedsters...unknown quantities, but known talents. Wideouts Jake Bielinski and Ben Becerra are known quantities if the Mustangs can give McAfee time to throw, and senior tight end Sam Fadel is an excellent release valve for the Mustangs' new signal-caller. Fullback Ben Meece appears on the small side for a fullback, but has historically simply gotten the job done; he may be the best athlete on either side of the ball, pound for pound. The o-line is quick, but smallish, and it may take a few games for the offense to develop the consistency coach Jake Gamsky wants as it comes together.

 

Defensively, the Mustangs will have to improve. Gamsky placed that as his top priority this year, after North was simply unable to outscore teams last year. A former linebacker himself, Gamsky played at South Oldham and at Murray State, and knows what has to be done. He's hoping this defensive unit can hold opponents to 20 points or less per game. There is some talent on the defensive side of the ball, but with so many players going both ways, conditioning will be a huge factor. Key players include Jake Bielinski at defensive back, Ben Meece, and an up-and-comer in sophomore Blake Wetzel, who is already making a name for himself as a defensive back and as a wide receiver.

 

Questions for North: How fast can this extremely talented sophomore class develop? Will the o-line create enough holes for the backs to run through? Can the defense begin slowing down the other team's offense?

 

Playing at home for the second straight week is Oldham County (1-0), who broke away from Eastern last week to win 27-12, after leading just 7-6 at the half. Oldham brings back a lot of skill kids from last year's team that made the second round of the 6A playoffs and won 10 games.

 

Coach Mike Fox, in his third season, has turned around the Oldham County program, going 6-5 in his first year and 10-2 last season. The Colonels have now won 14 of their last 17 games going back to late in the 2017 season. Fox has a growing roster of nearly 90 players, and is hopeful he can platoon effectively this year to keep players fresh. A large, talented roster, momentum, and "energy" - the fans were lined up to see last week's season opener against Eastern - are propelling this team into 2019. A rough outing in the preseason scrimmage versus Ryle may have provided the wake-up call... Can the Colonels take the next step?

 

Offensively, the Colonels averaged 39.8 ppg last year, and return several of the players who made it happen. QB Parker Caudill, an under-sized quarterback, but extremely elusive runner, has moved to the slot, where he will have the opportunity to create mis-matches against linebackers. At QB will be sophomore Sam Young, who saw action as a backup last season before taking over the starting role in the playoffs. Young went 20 of 33 passing for 218 yards last year, 4 TDs / 1 INT, and he got off to a solid, if unspectacular, start last week with a 7 for 10 performance against Eastern, 78 yards and a touchdown, with no picks. Young's efficiency is scary for a kid of his youth; he gives Oldham a lot of promise at the position over the next three seasons.

 

Juan Tapia, who rushed for over 700 yards last year, takes over the lead back role from the graduated Lucas Jones, and he tallied 165 yards and two TDs vs. Eastern....also in the backfield will be the heady Preston Dykes, who runs as hard as any back I've seen.

 

Parker Caudill, Carson Deckard, and Tyler Holvey project to lead a deep receiving corps that may not have the blazing speed of last year, but figures to be productive as a unit.

 

Bryce Rochet (78 tackles in 2018) and Preston Dykes (71 tackles), the #1 and #2 tacklers from the 2018 squad, led the defense into 2019. Rochet and Dykes are two aggressive and smart linebackers that will be the backbone of this year's defense. Dykes had two TFL against Eastern. Jalen Stratton and Joe Lay - also linebackers in Oldham's 3-4 - led the Colonels last week with 6 tackles each.

 

Junior Hunter Sentelle (DB), junior Aiden Gremmert (WR/DB), freshman Jaylen McRoberts (RB/DB), and senior Jake Mutchler (OL/DL) all figure to have prominent roles this season...

 

If North's schedule qualifies as "brutal", Oldham's qualifies as "obscenely brutal." Besides county rivals North and South Oldham (#7, 5A), the Colonels face longtime rival Shelby County, Fern Creek (6A, #8), Manual (6A, #6), and a tough district that includes Madison Central (10 wins and a 6A semi-finalist in 2018) and George Rogers Clark. The Colonels wrap up the season by playing the always-challenging Collins Titans.

 

Key Question for Oldham - Are the Colonels mature enough to take the winning spirit they've developed over the past two seasons and maintain their poise when challenged by the schedule they face this year?

 

Oldham probably goes into this game as the favorite - but it's the role of a favorite in a rivalry game...

 

Live video broadcast at The Pegasus Sports Network - PSN

 

CM

Since coach Fox went to OC it has always felt like Oldham was so close to becoming a top notch team, but they seemed to come up just a bit short. It felt as though in some games OC was firing on all cylinders and others they where just going through the motions. We saw this a little with Eastern in the first half but they turned it on in the second. I think this year could be really special for the Colonels. They know now what it takes to be a top notch team and what it is going to take to reach there goals. This team is hungry and I think there ready for the challenge ahead of them. They have a chip on their shoulder right now. No one thinks they are going to big things in 6a but people are going to be in for a surprise this year, I can just feel it. Regarding this week I’ll take OC 50-14.

  • Author

Some tidbits on the series:

 

- North Oldham leads the series, 5-3.

- Oldham County has won the last three meetings, including 31-0 last year in Goshen.

- Last year's 31-0 score was the first time either team had been held scoreless. It was also the second year in a row that Oldham County scored over 30 points.

- Oldham County very nearly had three 100-yard rushers in last year's game. Lucas Jones carried 23x for 132 yards, 1 TD. QB Parker Caudill carried 9x for 117 yards and 2 TDs, and RB Juan Tapia carried 11x for 91 yards and a score. Caudill - now a RB/WR - and Tapia return to this year's team.

- Oldham County has picked off two North Oldham passes in each of the last three games, all Oldham County victories.

- Both teams are on the re-build with young coaches. North is led by Joe Gamsky, in his fourth season. After going winless in year one, Gamsky has overseen a North program that won two games in 2017 and four games last year. The Mustangs have not won a playoff game since 2014 - when they won 10 games and advanced all the way to the state 4A semi-finals against Owensboro.

- Oldham is led by third-year coach Mike Fox, who has rapidly turned around a team that had suffered through six consecutive losing seasons, going 6-5 in 2017 and 10-2 last year. Last year's round 1 playoff victory was the Colonels' first playoff win since 2012.

  • Author

Oldham led at the intermission, 33-14. The Colonels dominated the first half, but North got two big kickoff returns - one for a touchdown, and the other setting up a long TD run by North QB Blake McAfee.

 

The opening moments of the second half, however, proved to be the Mustangs' undoing as North fumbled away the ball early on their first two possessions of the second half. In each case, Oldham took only three plays to put the ball in the endzone, and with 10 minutes to play in the third, Oldham was up, 46-14, and the game was in hand for the Colonels.

 

Per unofficial stats, Oldham finished with well over 500 yards of offense, including over 300 on the ground. North ran just 12 plays from scrimmage (again, unofficial stats) in the second half.

 

North battled injuries coming into the game, running their #3 running back as the talented Ben Becerra and his backup were both out. Sam Fadel, the starting back for the game, was moved from his starting TE spot. The #1 WR for North - Jake Bielinski - was also out, nursing a pulled hamstring.

 

Senior running back Juan Tapia had a monster game for the Colonels; I don't have his final numbers, but he had over 160 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns at halftime.

 

Oldham County wins its fourth straight game in the series, and has been particularly dominant in the last two games (Oldham won, 31-0, last year, in the only shutout between the two schools). North Oldham, however, still leads the all-time series, 5 games to 4.

 

Congratulations to the Colonels, who move to 2-0 on the season and face Shelby County - their old rivals - at home next week in a game that will be aired on The Pegasus Sports Network - PSN.

 

Best of luck to the Mustangs (0-2), who will try to regroup and will look for their first win next week at home in Goshen against (Louisville) Holy Cross.

 

CM

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