There seems to be a chance for a more organized severe weather event on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of Kentucky east of line just west of Frankfort in a Category 3 Enhanced Risk Area for strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours. West of that line to about Owensboro that part of Kentucky is in a Category 2 Slight Risk Area. The main threats appear to be damaging wind gusts hail and a possible tornado or two.

 

 

 

This simulation for the NAM shows the energy in the atmosphere that could be conducive to the formation of strong to severe storms.

 

 

This is a situation I will be closely watching update later today.

Here is the Friday evening update for Sunday. It looks like there may be a good chance for a widespread severe weather event across portions of Kentucky. This is mainly east of I-65. As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has most of Kentucky east of I-65 in a Category 3 Enhanced Risk Area for strong to severe storms. West of that portions of Kentucky is in a Category 2 Slight Risk Area and portions of western Kentucky in a Category 1. All of the elements of severe weather will be possible. Damaging winds, hail and a couple of tornadoes.

 

 

 

For now the timing looks to be from late Sunday morning to early evening hours before the storms clear eastern Kentucky. The following radar shows this.

 

 

Areas that may see supercell development

 

 

Possivle significant tornadic development

 

 

This could be a significant severe weather event. I'm watching it closely and will post an update early Saturday morning.

 

The chance for strong to severe storms still remains for Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours. Damaging winds, hail and a couple of tornadoes a couple of which could be strong. Also, cloud to ground lightning will be a danger. The SARS is showing the possibility of the stronger tornadoes being around EF-3. Now, this is not saying the tornadoes will form but I just wanted to post what I've been seeing.

 

If the trend continues I will more than likely issue a Severe Weather Alert Day for Sunday. I will update again later today.

Just as a fun FYI, we had an interesting weather experience yesterday morning (about 6:45) near my school in Crestwood. We had an EF1 tornado on for a 9 mile path. I was driving right through it all. There was a point that I felt my car move oddly. It wasn't a hydroplane, but felt as if the rear of my car was about to spin. A few minutes later, my entire path was blocked by a massive downed tree. When I arrived at school, we had power...until the moment that school is supposed to start (8:45). It was then out until 1:30.

70-80 mph winds in Warsaw yesterday around 7:15. Knocked power out in Upper Warsaw and school had to be cancelled.

Severe thunderstorms are forecast for parts Kentucky. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be the primary threats, but isolated hail may accompany the strongest updrafts. As with all strong thunderstorms, lighting will also be a threat.

 

It appears that there will be two lines of storms we will have to contend with. The first should be move through and be around the I-75 corridor around 10 am EST. The second and perhaps the more potent line looks to form around the same area around the 1 pm EST move eastward across Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

 

 

If everything continues to develop as forecast I will issue severe weather alert day in the morning.