February 20, 20197 yr Strong to severe storms will be possible from late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Medium range models continue to indicate that strong to severe storms will commence across parts of Kentucky. Conditions may become conducive to the evolution of a significant organized mesoscale convective system, potentially accompanied by considerable damaging wind gusts. The highest severe probabilities appear focused in a swath across parts of the Ozark Plateau, lower Mississippi Valley into Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. The environment may also support discrete supercell development in advance of the squall line. In addition to the risk for damaging convective wind gusts, there appears to be the potential for tornadoes some of which could be quite strong. This is what the GFS is showing with its EHI data This is from the GFS-FV3 model is showing. This model will be replacing the GFS soon. I will be watching this closely and post updates when possible.
February 21, 20197 yr Author Most of Kentucky, for now, is in a Category 3 Enhanced Risk Area for severe Storms on Saturday. A Category 2 Slight Risk Area is from about halfway between I-65 to east of I-75. Most of the rest of eastern Kentucky is in a Category 1 Marginal Risk Area from Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. I would like to remind everyone what each category means. Everyone should be on the lookout for strong to severe storms that could spawn several tornadoes some of which could be strong. Damaging wind gusts and hail are some of the other possibilities. I will update later.
February 21, 20197 yr Louisville news channels are calling for 1-1.25" of rain on Saturday. Yeesh...just what we need.
February 21, 20197 yr Author Louisville news channels are calling for 1-1.25" of rain on Saturday. Yeesh...just what we need. I was just looking at the latest modeling data while I'm on my lunch break. Those totals maybe going up some. I'm going to post a more detailed forecast later today.
February 22, 20197 yr Author There is the potential for excessive rainfall this weekend. The Weather Prediction Center has most of Kentucky in with a slight risk of rainfall exceeding flash flooding criteria for Friday through Saturday morning. Parts of Kentuck along the Tennessee border is in a moderate risk for flash flooding. While the flooding potential, for now, is lesser on Saturday into Sunday it is still in the forecast. The NAM has a good section of Kentucky with the potential of 2-4" of rainfall accumulations. The following map is the 48 hr rainfall totals through Sunday. This is in addition to the potential for severe weather late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. I will update on that in the morning. The severe threat has increased some so I may go into a severe weather threat mode then. Take care and have a great rest of your Thursday evening.
February 22, 20197 yr Author I'm happy to report that the severe threat has diminished some. The Storm Prediction Center has lowered the threat level to a Category 1 Marginal Risk for scattered strong to severe storms on Saturday. I'm still seeing the better chance for severe weather in western Kentucky so I'm going to keep an eye on that area. A vast majority of Kentucky is under a flash flood watch.
February 22, 20197 yr Author The Storm Prediction Center has increased the chance of strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon into the evening hours for parts of Kentucky. The best chance seems to be in western Kentucky. While widespread rain and clouds may reduce the chance of severe storms there still may be enough instability for severe storms to form. Damaging winds and tornadoes look to be the main threats. Hail is also possible. This shows where the most instability may be in Kentucky. Here are the latest 48hr rainfall totals through Sunday morning. I may issue a severe weather alert in the morning.
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