weather Winter Weather Threat Mode for Friday-Sunday 1/12-13/2019

[nWo]

I may be premature but I'm going into a Winter Weather Threat Mode for this weekend. Both the NAM and GFS afternoon runs are almost identical. Several inches of snow will be possible from early Saturday morning through Sunday evening mainly north of I-64. South of that look for some freezing rain and light snow accumulations. I will make my first call tomorrow. The NAM still doesn't cover the entire weekend.

 

The possible snow accumulations from the GFS

 

 

Possible freezing rain/ice accumulations

 

 

 

From the NAM

 

 

Possible freezing rain/ice accumulations

 

 

I will update in the morning.

[sportsfan41]

So NwO, think this system stays that far north now?

[nWo]

So NwO, think this system stays that far north now?

 

Hard to say right now. The Canadian has the system a little further south. Also, it has it mainly as a snow event. One thing to note. All three are really close on the possible snow accumulations north of I-64 but the Canadian is more widespread with the snow field.

[sportsfan41]

Hard to say right now. The Canadian has the system a little further south. Also, it has it mainly as a snow event. One thing to note. All three are really close on the possible snow accumulations north of I-64 but the Canadian is more widespread with the snow field.

 

Got ya. Working all weekend, hoping this doesn't make it a complete mess on the roads.

[nWo]

It sure looks like winter is on its way to parts of Kentucky this weekend. Accumulating snows will be possible especially north of I-64. The models are showing this quite well right now. The exact track of the system is still uncertain. The NAM is now showing the snow taking a little more southerly track than the GFS than yesterday's runs. The GFS has most of the accumulating snows north of I-64. The NAM is bringing down to around a line from Elizabethtown to Pikeville. There is enough difference in the models that I'm going to hold off on making any snow accumulation forecasts.

 

This is a new simulation just released this morning. I'm now able to place the models in the same picture so we can compare them side by side.

 

 

 

I will update later today.

[nWo]

I forgot to mention in the above thread that the simulation is to Sunday afternoon around 1 pm.

[nWo]

Just a quick little update. The midmorning runs for the NAM model is showing a more southerly track for this system. The Canadian and GFS are still showing a track to the north. Everyone hold tight looks like we are in for a wild rollercoaster ride until we get closer to the event. Either way, people should pay attention to this system. Especially those north of I-64. Sunday afternoon is still at the end of the NAM run so I'm probably going to give my first snow accumulation forecast later today after the afternoon runs are released.