The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Kentucky in a Marginal Risk Area for possible strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours. This area is north and west of a line from around Bowling Green into in and around the Ashland area. A cold front will push eastward across the Ohio Valley. Storms look to form along this front. Small to marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage may accompany the stronger storms.

 

The main areas I'm watching for the possibility of these storms is from around Louisville to Cincinnati/NKY area. This is are area where the EHI model is showing the most instability. I will update later today. Those who have outdoor plans for Sunday afternoon should keep and eye on the weather in their area. May not be a total washout but be weather aware for these storms could pop up rather quickly.

 

 

Radar from 2 pm to 4 am EDT

 

 

EHI from around 11 am to 8 pm EDT

 

Our big Easter Sunday cookout with family isn't looking good this year....

Saturday evening update:

 

The 18z NAM is showing that the threat for severe weather has diminished but strong storms are still possible that could go severe. For now it looks to more widely scattered storms between the 2-5 pm EDT time period. Mainly in the Louisville, NKY and WKY areas. Western Kentucky could see a more organized strong to severe storm threat. Between the 5-8 pm EDT time period the storms look to shift to the central and bluegrass areas of Kentucky. A line should form from around Elizabethtown and could stretch to EKY. I will update again early tomorrow morning. The main threats look to be possible hail and damaging winds.

Sunday morning update.

 

While the severe threat has diminished some will see some scatter showers and possible thunderstorms this morning. These look to clear out by late morning. There maybe some clearing before the cold front approaches Kentucky. This could ramp up the severe threat some. As surface heating takes place, weak instability is forecast to develop along the front. This combined with increasing low-level convergence should result in thunderstorm development. Scattered thunderstorm development is forecast to occur along and ahead of the front this afternoon. The severe threat looks to be isolated damaging wind gusts and hail as the primary hazards.

 

 

2-6 pm EDT

 

5-8 pm EDT

Ugh. Breckenridge Co is under a flood warning. My daughter's back yard is completely under water. News is reporting 3rd St. in Hardinsburg is flooded. She lives non 4th.