There has been a good deal of discussion this week regarding the correctness of polling. Fivethirtyeight.com gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4% chance at winning the presidency only to see Donald Trump win with a sizable number of electoral votes. Many have argued that proves polling untrustworthy, while also avoiding the fact that if there is a 71% chance something will happen, then there is a 29% chance that it won't.

 

No matter your views on politics, one area where ranking and polling was 100% in the Bluegrasspreps' Class 3A Rankings. With the playoff competitors winnowed to the final eight, every team left was in the final rankings and this weekend promises four regional finals that should be exciting, competitive events.

 

Listed is a reminder of the end of season top ten in Class 3A:

 

1. Belfry

2. Corbin

3. Lexington Catholic

4. Central

5. Bardstown

6. Russell

7. Caldwell County

8. Boyle County

9. Elizabethtown

10. Casey County

 

Central and Lexington Catholic win big on way to Region Finals Repeat

 

Most all of the state expected Central or Lexington Catholic to represent the west side of Class 3A in the state finals and Lexington Catholic did just that, in part because they were able to squeak out a 14-13 victory at Central in the regional final. For a second consecutive year, the Yellowjackets and Knights are considered the favorites to make it to Bowling Green and this Friday's regional final will go a long way toward that end once again.

 

#4 Central (7-5) jumped on Boyle County early with a scoop-and-score fumble return by Luke Bowman on the first play of the game and the Jackets had little trouble from then on, coasting to a 37-6 victory. As always, defense comes first for Central, but the early score certainly surprised coach Ty Scroggins, who told the Courier-Journal, "They were emotional and jacked up to begin the game and it kind of shocked me. I didn’t know we were going to go out there that quick and put seven points on the board, but our defense came ready to play.” (Central thrashes Boyle County | | USA Today High School Sports).

 

For Boyle, ranked eighth, the inability to move the ball on offense led to a quick realization that it wouldn't be their night. Boyle coach Chuck Smith told the Advocate-Messenger, “We just started off with that fumble...and just got us back and behind so fast and so quick. Their other score came fast as well. You can’t do that against a good team and expect to beat them. We got behind so quick, then after that we started losing our confidence, I think.” (Rebels offense stalls at Central | The Advocate-Messenger)

 

Meanwhile, Lexington Catholic (7-5) was making short work of #5 Bardstown in a 53-14 blowout that surprised many. Catholic's dual quarterback system paid dividends on the ground and through the air, with Kirk Fagot rushing for 176 yards and three scores while Beau Allen threw for 196 yards. The result was very similar to LexCath's first round rout of Bardstown in 2015.

 

Bardstown coach David Clark was impressed, telling the Kentucky Standard “We will see that team play for the state championship. From what I’ve seen, they’re a really good football team, really good football team.” (CLASS 3A REGION 2 PLAYOFFS: LexCath machine steamrolls Bardstown | KYStandard.com). But not everyone agrees with Clark. Central running back Corey Johnson said, “We’re ready to make that trip. We want revenge because they put us out last year. Now we’ve just got to make it happen.”

 

Region III - Can Russell Score AND Defend Well Enough to Scare Belfry?

 

#1 Belfry continued its dominant defensive play, tossing their fifth shutout in six games, by routing Fleming County 61-0. The Pirates (11-1) held Fleming to 78 total yards while tallying 378 yards of their own, 362 on the ground. Belfry has been touted all season as the prohibitive favorite to win a fourth consecutive Class 3A title and Fleming County coach Bill Spencer sees no reason to think otherwise, telling the Ledger-Independent “They are the best football team I’ve ever lined up against and we played against Boyle County in their heyday and we know what a good football team is. They were a heck of a football team.” (Pirates punish Panthers | Sports | maysville-online.com).

 

Any discussion of the best defenses in Class 3A will include Belfry but it should also include Russell. The #6 Red Devils have allowed only 106 points on the season, second to Corbin, and had no trouble with Pike County Central, winning 56-14 to record their eighth straight victory. Now Russell (10-1) will renew an old rivalry, meeting Belfry for the 25th time in school history, including eight playoff games in the last thirteen years. Russell has not of yet seen an offense capable of the numbers put up by Belfry and it will most definitely be a challenge to win on the road.

 

Elsewhere in the Playoffs

 

#2 Corbin (11-1) had no difficulty dispatching Bell County, romping to a 44-8 victory. The Redhounds have outscored their opponents 472-93 through twelve games, but will have to outscore Casey County for a second time this season in order to win a regional championship.

 

#7 Caldwell County (8-4) finally won a close ballgame, knocking off Adair County, 17-12. The Tigers have lost twice this season by a single score and have been eliminated from the playoffs three of the last four years by one score margins. Now Caldwell must travel to Elizabethtown in a rematch of last year's playoff game won by E'town by - you guessed it - a last second touchdown.

 

#9 Elizabethtown (9-3) dominated Paducah Tilghman from start to finish, winning 47-13. E'town has averaged 46 points per game over their current seven-game winning streak.

 

#10 Casey County (10-1) went to Estill County and did enough to slow the ground-and-pound Engineers while putting up big offensive numbers themselves. Typically a pass-heavy attack, Casey went to the ground for 242 yards, something coach Steve Stonebraker said you have to be able to do, telling the Advocate-Messenger, “Kids always ask, ‘Are we going to be a running team or a passing team?’ and I say, ‘We’re going to take what the defense gives us.’ We need to be able to do both." (Casey uses speed, quick scores to bury Estill | The Advocate-Messenger) How well they do both will determine whether they can close the gap in the second meeting with Corbin after falling 35-7 on October 21.

 

Predictions

 

Region I - Elizabethtown 29 Caldwell County 26

 

Region II - Lexington Catholic 31 Central 20

 

Region III - Belfry 35 Russell 12

 

Region IV - Corbin 35 Casey County 14

This regional finals weekend is always my favorite of the season. There is just so many good games statewide in all classes that it really holds my attention.

 

That Elizabethtown/Caldwell game should be a barn burner and the Lexington Catholic/Central game is a big matchup that really would not surprise me much either way it turns out.

 

Belfry and Corbin are heavy favorites too, but I won't sell Russell short. Too much history built into that Pirate/Red Devil rivalry not to expect the unexpected so to speak when they match up.

^Agreed, I think The Lexington Catholic/Central game will be a great one. Caldwell County/Elizabethtown should be fantastic as well.