March 22, 201610 yr Some parts of Kentucky could see strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. At this time the main area of concern looks to be southcentral Kentucky. The rest of Kentucky should see some thunderstorms with possible high winds and heavy down pours in the strongest storms. Now for southcentral Kentucky. The EHI index is centering around the southcentral KY area for the possibility of severe storms that could possibly produce a tornado. Other threats look to be damaging winds and hail. This map is centered around 8 pm EDT. This map shows the possibility of a tornado. Most non-tornadic storms have value less than 1. A majority of significant tornadoes have been associated with a values greater than 1. As you can see in this map the possible storm values are around 1. I will be watching this closely and post updates when the information warrants it.
March 23, 201610 yr Author Wednesday morning update: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a outlook map that pretty closely matches the maps I posted last night. Southcentral Kentucky is now in a slight risk area for strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. The rest of Kentucky is in a marginal risk area. The best chance to see severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, severe hail and a few tornadoes is in southcentral KY. I'll post an update later today.
March 23, 201610 yr Author Midday Wednesday update: According to the NAM model both the chance for the formation of supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes have increased. Also it seems the storms may pass through a little earlier that first thought. The following maps are for around 5 pm EDT Thursday. I want to see this evening's updates before I make a decision to go into severe weather alert mode. Everyone should stay weather aware tomorrow afternoon into the evening ours. Especially west of I-65.
March 23, 201610 yr I would almost bet tomorrow is sunny and warm all day long until I have to get up for work Friday morning and then all hell will break loose and Friday will actually be the bad day of the two
March 24, 201610 yr Author Wednesday evening update: As of this evening the main area of concern that I'm watching is around the Owensboro down to about the Bowling Green area. Around 5 pm EDT seems to be the main threat time for tornadoes in that area. The threat diminishes as the storms cross Kentucky and could be around the I-75 corridor around 8 pm EDT. The main threats from these possible storms are damaging winds, hail and of course a few tornadoes. One thing I want to see if it still is showing the possibility of two lines of storms that the NAM is showing tonight. The first looks to come through during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Then the second one later on into the night. The second one looks to be the weaker of the two. The storms look to clear out by Friday morning. If this trend continues in the morning I will go into a Severe Weather Threat mode then. 8pm EDT
March 24, 201610 yr Author Here are the radar images I was talking about from the NAM model. 2 pm EDT 5 pm EDT 8 pm EDT
March 24, 201610 yr Author Thursday morning update: It still is possible to see two lines of storms later today. The first one looks to pass through WKY mid to late this morning and then pass through the rest of KY by the early afternoon. It doesn't look these will be severe in nature but some could be strong. As with any thunderstorm cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain will be possible. The second line is still showing and that is where I think most of our possible severe weather will come from. I look for this line of storms early evening into the night time hours. As of now it looks like they will be just west of the I-65 corridor around 8 pm EDT and then be around the I-75 corridor about 11 pm EDT. To me the main threat area is still from around the Owensboro down to the Bowling Green area. Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. The threat for tornadoes will diminish as this line of storms progress eastward. I've already got our Severe Weather Tracker Thread at the top of this forum for everyone to follow the progression of these storms. Be weather aware later today. These show the atmosphere is conducive for severe storms before the line passes through. 5pm EDT 5 pm EDT 8 pm EDT 11 pm EDT SPC 8pm EDT thunderstorm outlook
March 24, 201610 yr Author The second line of storms is now forming stretching back to the southwest from just west of Louisville to about Central city and is moving in a east/northeast directionthrough Kentucky.
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.