Covington Catholic vs Fern Creek

[Oldtimebaseball84]

I don't know a lot about Fern Dale and there isn't a common opponent.......maybe Sir can analyze the two for us..........

 

Game is at 6 pm at Dunbar.

[Oldtimebaseball84]

Please change it to Fern Creek.......sorry.....

[Sir!]

I don't know much about #26 Fern Creek (Maher Rating 8.11). They are in SW Jefferson County and played played a fairly weak schedule out of Region 6 with OAS of 0.85. Lost to North Oldham, Ballard and Dupont Manual the first three games of the season. Tied #9 Oldham County mid-season. Beat #19 North Hardin 2-1 and #27 Henderson County 1-0 in last two games in states. Stats in Henderson County game looked pretty even. They look like a solid Top 20 team, but are definitely the dark horse in the final 4.

 

Forward/winger Kornell Hilliard (51 goals, 13 assists) and midfielder Jacob Teasley (20 goals, 41 assists) look like their best players. They both play club ball for the KY Fire Jr team that Dale Helfrich coaches with a couple Trinity boys on the team. No doubt Jeremy can get some intel. The rest of the cast of players sounds fairly multi-cultural.

 

Hopefully I can get down to the semi-final games Wednesday (having served duty passing out candy on Saturday). My only request if I came down would be that Fern Creek play their backup keeper for at least a portion of the game. I'd love to hear the announcer say "now in goal for the Tigers, Ringzing Tamang." Keep rolling CovCath!

[gameplayedright]

Forward/winger Kornell Hilliard (51 goals, 13 assists)

" Keep rolling CovCath!

 

Is 51 goals correct or is this a typo error, or is this his career goals including club?

[Oldtimebaseball84]

Pp

I don't know much about #26 Fern Creek (Maher Rating 8.11). They are in SW Jefferson County and played played a fairly weak schedule out of Region 6 with OAS of 0.85. Lost to North Oldham, Ballard and Dupont Manual the first three games of the season. Tied #9 Oldham County mid-season. Beat #19 North Hardin 2-1 and #27 Henderson County 1-0 in last two games in states. Stats in Henderson County game looked pretty even. They look like a solid Top 20 team, but are definitely the dark horse in the final 4.

 

Forward/winger Kornell Hilliard (51 goals, 13 assists) and midfielder Jacob Teasley (20 goals, 41 assists) look like their best players. They both play club ball for the KY Fire Jr team that Dale Helfrich coaches with a couple Trinity boys on the team. No doubt Jeremy can get some intel. The rest of the cast of players sounds fairly multi-cultural.

 

Hopefully I can get down to the semi-final games Wednesday (having served duty passing out candy on Saturday). My only request if I came down would be that Fern Creek play their backup keeper for at least a portion of the game. I'd love to hear the announcer say "now in goal for the Tigers, Ringzing Tamang." Keep rolling CovCath!

 

Too bad we can't get multiple likes......this one would have received all of mine

[Yellow Card]

Is 51 goals correct or is this a typo error, or is this his career goals including club?

 

This number looks to be correct gpr. The team scored well over 100 goals on the year and they only had a few wins in which they did not have 4+ goals in the match.

 

I think their ability to score in high numbers has a lot to do with the opponents they played during the season, there are only 2 teams in the top #50 that have a lower opponent strength of schedule. Playing in Region 6, which has a scaled rating of -1.54, makes it hard to compare them with CCH, the 9th Region has a scaled rating just over 4.

 

As noted by Sir!, they do have a few good matches under their belt but I also noticed their scoring is way down when they play quality teams.

 

If I remember correctly, they came into the State Tourney undefeated last season and had similar offensive numbers.

[gameplayedright]

YC thanks for clarifying his goal totals. I have a feeling he will wind up with 51 goals. CCH held a powerful Trinity to one (weak) goal, don't see Fern Creek scoring.

 

Real shame some teams choose to play a weak schedule year in, year out. No rule I know of that says Region 6 teams are not permitted to play teams outside their region. But as noted, ("they do have a few good matches under their belt but I also noticed their scoring is way down when they play quality teams."), playing good teams hampers padding the stat sheet.

[CENTERREF]

Im taking CCH in this one with a strong 3 to 0 win.

 

I believe this team this year will finally bring the state championship to the NKY..

 

 

GO COLONELS!!!

 

#State Champs!!!

[Oldtimebaseball84]

To the CCH players that are reading this......Fern Creek is better than

Trinity and need 100% of your focus, energy and effort to defeat them.....

 

Approach his game as if it can be your last.

[Corner kick]

Good luck colonels!! Bring the title home to NKy.

[wkrp]

CCH...kick Fern Creeks tail. Show them its your time!

Take no prisoners!

Edited November 2, 2015 by MentschTrachtGottLacht
Word Filter Violation

[Oldtimebaseball84]

I don't do predictions......

 

But in looking at the stats.....the one that jumps out at me is that FC is one spot above CCH in the goal differential category......FC has a 3.6 and CCH has a 3.3 differential.

 

FC has a OAS (opponent average strength) of 0.85 and CCH has an OAS of 6.28 according to the Maher rating.

[Sir!]

Who you play is only partly a choice. First, Fern Creek has to play a certain amount of games in Region. They've won Region 6 for the past 4 years. No choice but to play 5 games against Region 6 teams in Districts and Regionals. Add 3 regular season District games and a half-dozen non-District Region games and over half their games are in Region 6 with an overall Maher Rating of -1.54.

 

Fern Creek played 9 games outside of Region 6 this year in the regular season. They were all in Region 7 or 8 and all in the greater Louisville area. It's possible that Fern Creek has budget or policy limitations on travel or that they just can't get the better teams in Lexington or NKY to schedule them. Fern Creek doesn't regularly have some of the top Louisville teams -- Trinity, St. X or KCD -- on their schedule. They did play four pretty decent non-Region area schools in 2015 (North Oldham, Ballard, DuPont Manual and Oldham County).

 

Two years ago Fern Creek had a KY schedule that was nearly as difficult as CovCath's KY schedule (OAS of 5.15 compared to 6.59 for CCH) so I'm not sure that they play a weak schedule "year in, year out."

 

Following the Regional title game this year their coach said he wasn't sure they'd make it that far. They graduated 18 seniors from last year's team. Now here they are in the state quarterfinals. CCH must be a 3-4 goal favorite -- no doubt the toughest challenge Fern Creek has faced this year. Whatever the outcome it should be fun to watch.

[Oldtimebaseball84]

And any team can beat any team on any given Wednesday......

[warbeagle]

familiar with Trinity and Fern Creek. FC plays a weak schedule and has an easy path to this point. CC is strong. 5-1,... FC scores late