First round action, so it's an elimination game.

 

Who do you like, by how much, and why? What do you think will be the difference in the game?

 

 

Previous Meetings:

2/5/14: Lexington Catholic 58, Dunbar 55 (@ Lexington Catholic)

2/10/14: Dunbar 55, Lexington Catholic 51 (@ Dunbar)

 

 

 

Game Notes:

Both teams played each other in February, with the last game coming on the 10th. I'm going to say that the coaches wanted to win for purposes of seeding, but probably didn't force their hand and pull out all of the stops knowing that Lafayette had practically locked up the #1 seed in the district and that there was a good chance they'd end up playing one another.

 

It's important to note that Dunbar super sophomore Darius Williams did not play in the Bulldog's initial loss to Lex Cath, and would have been a huge factor in that game considering he's their leading scorer and that he dropped 31 in the second meeting. The same is true, albeit to a lesser extent, for the absence of Knights guard Michael Talbott, who was out resting a foot injury when Dunbar bested them in the second meeting. Talbott only score 4 points in the second meeting, but backcourt-mate Jarrod Griffin's production spiked down from 10 points to 4 from the first to second meetings between the two and that is likely in direct correlation to Talbott's absence. I'm also unsure as to whether Dontell Brown (more on him later) played in the first meeting between the two.

 

 

 

Dunbar has been on a bit of a tear lately. Part of this is freshman center Dontell Brown's emergence in the paint, and part has been a confidence building road win over Bryan Station without super sophomore guard Darius Williams in the lineup.

 

The Bulldogs faded down the stretch last week with an overtime loss to Henry Clay, but that doesn't look as bad now that we've seen the Blue Devils knock off Madison Central. Also, you have to take into account that they had played a lot of games in only a few days, which did coincide with their decline over the past week.

 

Darius Williams leads a young core that includes he, Brown, and freshman guard Taveion Hollingsworth, who had 19 points in the first game (with Williams out). Senior guards Troy Black and Donnie Lewis will be counted on to provide a steadying force for the squad, as they are really two of the only upper classmen, along with junior guard PJ Corio, who see many minutes in the regular rotation.

 

 

Lexington Catholic, like Dunbar, has suffered from playing a lot of basketball in a very short amount of time due to rescheduling of games due to weather. They take on a good Lincoln County team and then go on the road to face a very stiff test in taking on Wayne County to end their season. Coach Salsman's Knights are no strangers to success, but have lost 3 of their last 4 as things stand now. 7 of Catholic's 9 losses have came after January 3rd, which means that they've lost those 7 gams in roughly a 6 week span.

 

Catholic is more battle tested than Dunbar considering the events they've played in and the absence of cupcakes from their schedule, but not by leaps and bounds. If you haven't looked at Dunbar's schedule, you should check it out, as you might be surprised.

 

 

 

Keys to the Game:

Dunbar will get after Lexington Catholic in aggressive man-to-man pressure. If Catholic guards Jarrod Griffin and Michael Talbott can break their man down off the dribble, they could look to get all the way to the rim and score. If that happens, eventually, it will force Bulldog defenders to step up/help off, which is dangerous when you have two excellent finishers in Robert Dence and Reese Ryan waiting at the rim for a dump off. Offensively, if the Bulldogs are to win, it's probably going to need to be behind a huge effort from Williams. He's had some down games, but scored 31 points in Dunbar's win over the Knights the last time they met.

 

Wait, you only mentioned the post threats, couldn't Dunbar help off from the wings? Sure, they could, but you'd be crazy to give junior guard Tanner Johnson a look from 3. Johnson is one of the leading scorers and outright top players in the 11th, and is the pro type traditional Lexington Catholic shooter who is so fundamentally sound that he can use his tall, lanky frame to score in a variety of ways when coaches try to take away his shot at the expense of defending his penetration. It's no coincidence that Johnson dropped 28 in the win and was held to 14 in the loss for the respective Dunbar games. I'm going to guarantee that Coach Chalk's team will have someone assigned to Johnson at all times, and if they forget that, they might be making a quick trip to the bench for a reminder.

 

Johnson is just one wing, so it's possible that Dunbar might help off on other wings, so for argument's sake, just assume that Johnson is on the strong side. Helping off of the weak side, though not as dangerous as leaving Johnson, is a risky proposition as well. Catholic is usually adept at ball reversal and have number of kids who can knock down set shots when the other team dares them to by giving them open looks and plenty of time to set their feet.

 

Other than what's already been mentioned, I'd expect that Dunbar might try to get Taveion Hollingsworth going offensively. The youngster had 19 in the first meeting, but was held to only 5 in the second. Donnie Lewis will be steady (12 and 7 points in the respective games). Troy Black is a senior who had 13 in the first and only 2 in the 2nd, which was probably more of a function of Brown and Williams being available in the latter. I'll expect the senior to be counted on and steady, but I'm not sure that his offensive role is going to be one intent on having him score.

 

 

 

Lexington Catholic will get after Dunbar with their trademark 2-2-1 full court or three-quarter court press variations. Look for them to try and trap the Dunbar guards and attempt to sweep the passing lanes, which can lead to favorable numbers in transition. Even if the Knights aren't super aggressive in their pressure and just use it to attempt to dictate the pace and tempo, you're probably going to see them look to make Darius Williams give up the ball and then work incredibly hard to get it back once he's given it up.

 

On the interior, Robert Dence and Reese Ryan are capable of hurting the Dawgs. Dence had 15 and Ryan 10 in the win against, but were held to 6 and 8, respectively, in the loss to Dunbar. Some of this is probably due to Dontell Brown's emergence, as he is a high energy guy who'll hustle, rebound, and step in and take the charge. Some of it is probably due to Talbott not being available for the second game, thus eliminating some the potential for ample penetrate-and-dump finishes around the basket.

 

Lex Cath is the deeper team, playing as many as 10 kids, many of which can do some different things and can give them versatility in what they throw at you. Joseph Ogbogu, Sam Letton (a gridiron stud), Donovan Morris, and Byron Booth are some kids who could see minutes.

 

 

 

Conclusions:

 

 

1. How well the younger Bulldogs handle the atmosphere will be telling.

 

This game will be at Dunbar, so the Dawg Pound will be rockin', but the younger Bulldogs will have to keep their emotions in check and not get caught up in the moment. You never know how young teams are going to react because we haven't seen them in these situations and there is absolutely no way to simulate them.

 

If you are Dunbar, you are prepared to, if forced, use some timeouts to calm your kids down, especially early. This can be dangerous, however, as timeouts are often a Coach's best friend when it comes to attempting to stop the bleeding during an opponent's run(s), which brings us to our next point.

 

 

2. Weathering the storm during runs will be determinative of the outcome.

 

Containing runs will be huge as the first two meetings were defined by one squad winning a quarter by at least 8 points. Other than that, the margins in each quarter were tight, as 0-4 points were the scoring differentials in the remainders. (Game 1: Q1: LC+4, Q2: D+8, Q3:LC+1, Q4:D+1; Game 2: Q1: LC+2, Q2: Tie, Q3: LC+8, Q4: D+3).

 

Lexington Catholic is typically one of the top free throw shooting teams in the state, which makes a huge difference late in close games, especially in tournament play. Because of this, and the runs I mentioned earlier, it will be especially important that Dunbar not fall too far behind later on in the game, because they don't want to play the free throw game with them.

 

 

3. The victory will go to the team who best limits turnovers under pressure, gets their leading scorer in rhythm, and limits runs.

 

I think the winner is the team who wins is the one who values the ball by limiting turnovers, gets their primary scorer comfortable and in a rhythm, and, most importantly, who doesn't collapse, even momentarily, while the other is making a big run.

Dunbar is at home and playing well lately. Catholic is on the road and not playing so well lately. However, Catholic knows how to win games like this. If Catholic stays out of significant foul trouble and they get normal production from Johnson, they win by 5.

Bump.

Lexington Catholic 63-52.

If you have the choice between taking in either this one or Bryan Station-Henry Clay in person and you can do only one, which do you choose (assuming you aren't affiliated with any of the schools)?

Close games are decided many times by free throw shooting. I'll take the Knights.

Anyone disagree as far as the analysis goes? You all are probably more familiar with each than I, so by all means, let me know.

The analysis was excellent and spot on.

The analysis was excellent and spot on.

 

Thanks. I appreciate it.

Dunbar by 5.

I really think that this one could be one of the toughest 1st Round games to pick. Literally nothing would surprise me.

Have seen them both this year, LC by 8, I still believe LC is the better team,,time will tell..