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Coming into the season Bowling Green was pegged as the district and region favorite with Warren Central running just behind. South Warren was considered the dark horse with Warren East and Greenwood bringing up the rear. And now three months later…. that's pretty much where we’re at. For the fifth time in the last six years we have a tie at the top, with both Warren Central and Bowling Green finishing at 7-1 in the district. It was suggested at the district meeting that a different method for breaking the tie be used in the future, but this year we had the standard. Each coach flipped coins, and whoever came up with a heads while the other had tails got to draw an envelope. Bowling Green’s D.G. Sherrill won the toss but drew the 2 seed, handing Warren Central the 1 spot. The rest of the district shook out easily with South Warren, Greenwood, and Warren East falling in that order with no ties. Warren Central and Bowling Green are the favorites, but each has been pushed at times by their potential opponents. And with the snow wiping out the final week of the season, who is to say we couldn’t have something crazy? To the matchups….. 14th District Tournament at South Warren High School February 23rd #4 Greenwood vs. #5 Warren East – Greenwood entered February in control of their own destiny to escape the 4/5 game, but could not come up with the necessary win over South Warren, and then fell by 20+ against both Bowling Green and Warren Central. Warren East had their chances as well, starting their district slate with a win over South Warren, but repeatedly coming up short afterwards, losing seven straight district games – including a 1 point OT loss to Greenwood and a 4 point loss to South Warren to cement their fate. And so each team finds themselves in the unenviable position of needing to win twice just to reach the region tournament. As to the matchup, the season’s matchups were tight contests, each won by the Gators, by 7 and the aforementioned 1 point game in OT. The two games were just two weeks apart, and came in a stretch for the Raiders where they only played one game in between. It was also part of a two week span that saw the Gators playing their best ball of the year, winning six of seven games. Outside of that span, Greenwood has gone 3-17. Based on the season results, the Gators should be favored, but honestly, the Raiders are the better team. And the third time will be the charm. Prediction: Warren East by 8 February 25th Predicted Matchup #5 Warren East vs. #1 Warren Central – If you’re just looking at the scoreboard, the Dragons dominated the Raiders in their two matchups this season, winning by 20 and 21 points. In the case of the first matchup, that was pretty much the story. The Dragons led by 13 at the half, and after a 14-0 run in the third quarter put the game away fast. But the second game at Warren East, the Raiders were right there in the fourth quarter. After trailing by 11 at halftime, Warren East opened the third with a 15-4 run to tie the game, and trailed by just 3 entering the final frame. But one possession undid it all when Jared Savage was fouled going for a dunk and East’s Antwan Gilbert received a technical. Savage hit four free throws then Rajee Anderson hit a three to complete a 7 point play, and that was that. The point being that Warren East showed in that game that they could stand toe to toe with the Dragons, even if the final score didn’t show it. Eli Brown did not play in the first game, and has shown in his sophomore and senior years to be an inside presence that the Dragons struggle with, especially defensively. The Raiders are a streaky three point shooting team, and you can never count out three point teams. The perimeter game is where the Dragons are vulnerable as they have typically run a 1-3-1 zone in the last two months, daring teams to beat them from behind the arc. Warren East shot 6/14 from three against Central the last time out, and if they can match or better that clip, they have a chance. Should Greenwood advance out of the 4/5 game they have shown a bit of fight themselves against Warren Central, mostly in their initial matchup. For years the Gators have known that their best chance of pulling the upset is to slow the tempo and ugly up the game. They hit the blueprint perfectly in the first half of their first game against Central, hitting 5 of 12 threes, including 4 of 7 in the first quarter. That enabled them to get up on the Dragons and force them into their style. It led to a 22-12 first half lead and 24-18 halftime score. But in the second half, it all melted away, and they were unable to duplicate that success in the second game beyond a slow paced first quarter. Against Greenwood the Dragons have turned more to their full court press compared to calling it off against other teams, and the Gators have not handled it well. Should these two meet, expect that to continue, and if the perimeter game is more like the second matchup (4 of 19), don’t expect Greenwood to compete. Prediction: Warren Central by 10 over Warren East or Warren Central by 19 over Greenwood February 26th #2 Bowling Green vs. #3 South Warren – In choosing between the potential draws, this was the one that South Warren was probably wanting. They lost by an average of 25 points against Warren Central, but against Bowling Green, they lost by a combined 11 points. Plus, the Spartans get to host the district tournament for the first time ever, giving them a chance to finally get a district semifinal win from the comforts of their own homecourt. Neither Warren Central or Bowling Green really wanted to be put into that situation, but it is the Purples that face it. Not that they have overwhelming fear – they’ve never lost to the Spartans in 11 all-time meetings. And though the margins were close, the Purples by and large outplayed South Warren for around 6.5 quarters of the 8 they’ve played. The first game they jumped out to a 14 point halftime lead and mostly maintained from there, never letting it get closer than seven. In the second game Bowling Green was all over South Warren early with a 15 point lead in the second quarter and 10 point lead at halftime. But in the third quarter it all went wrong as South Warren exploded for a 23-9 advantage and led by as much as seven in the fourth quarter. But at the midway point, Bowling Green did what Bowling Green does, getting to the line, turning the Spartans over, and they held on for the win. Setting up this game, neither team is liable to change their formula all that much. Bowling Green is going to utilize fierce man to man D and full court pressure to try to force the issue with the Spartans. The Purples have a great inside out game with Tucker Sine knocking down threes from the perimeter while talented sophomores Terry Taylor and Kyran Jones can get to the rim. Meanwhile South Warren is likely to lean on their perimeter game from Dayton Gumm and Michael Hicks in particular. The Spartans shoot just under 38% from three as a team and have four players that have hit more than 22 threes on the year, led by Gumm with 54 makes on 55.1% shooting. Brandon Stacker’s height will lead to some inside looks and Gumm and Marquise Walker can slash inside, but they’re going to need to continue to shoot well from three to have a shot at this. They combined for 17/35 (49%) in the first two games, and they’ll need all of that to finally break through the glass ceiling. And you know what? This is the year… no, can’t do it. Prediction: Bowling Green by 7 February 28th Predicted Matchup #1 Warren Central vs. #2 Bowling Green – You might think it lazy or just simply lacking daring to predict this matchup year after year, but you have to play the odds. These two have met in the last seven district tournaments, and five of those matchups came in the district finals. No other district team has beaten them in the district tournament since Greenwood knocked off Bowling Green in the 2007 district semifinals. You have to figure the day will come where one will falter but how can you in good conscience pick that? Especially when the two are in the clear cut top 3 of the region (along with Monroe County)? No, this is the matchup you expect until someone else proves otherwise. Going by the scoreboard, Bowling Green’s win over Warren Central was more impressive than the other way around, but the games were pretty similar. In the first matchup at Warren Central, the Dragons could never fully shake the Purples loose, but Bowling Green never led for a single second, even though it went to overtime. Bowling Green struggled with the length of Central in that game, and it was only a furious rally from six points down in the final minute capped with a buzzer beater putback that sent the game to OT. Jared Savage and Kobe Caldwell turned in magnificent performances for Warren Central, combining for 46 points, while the Purples struggled outside of Terry Taylor’s 5/7 shooting for 14 points and Tucker Sine’s five three pointers. In the second game, there were lead changes, but Bowling Green stayed on top for the most part, erasing a small halftime deficit in a flash, making their first five shots of the second half, four of which were threes. Warren Central managed to stay in shouting distance, with several possessions down 1 or 2, but much like Bowling Green in the first game, they couldn’t get over the hump to take the lead. Consequently, the chance passed when the Purples made their final four shots of the game, including back breaking threes by Deangelo Wilson and Terry Taylor to put the game out of reach. In all, the Purples shot 9/15 from three in the game, including 6/7 in the second half, and shot 60% from the floor. In setting up a potential district final matchup, let’s get this out of the way – if Bowling Green shoots as well as they did in that second matchup, there’s not a team in the region that will beat them. They have shot on average 31% from three for the season and have only made more than five three pointers in nine games. The Purples have typically relied on their strong inside game, ability to get easy baskets off of pressure turnovers, and get to the free throw line at will. As a team they average 53% shooting from inside the arc, so if they are feeling it from the perimeter, it is over. For the Dragons, that’s a dangerous proposition because as mentioned earlier, much of their defense has been predicated on daring teams to beat them from three. In the first game, the Purples could not (5/14), but they did in a big way the second time. It will be interesting to see if the Dragons stray from their 1-3-1 to try to take the open threes away, but if they do, it opens up the lanes for slashers like Perry Ayers and Malik Carothers. For Warren Central offensively, they’d like to get the ball worked inside as much as possible. Bowling Green has typically shown them a man to man defense, one of the few opponents that do not zone the Dragons. In the first two games Central has had trouble getting Chris Amos established on the inside where he makes almost 60% of his shots. Contributions from him would be a huge boost to draw attention from the big guns, Jared Savage and Kobe Caldwell. Caldwell is the type to drive to the rim or do a pick and pop off a screen while Savage can do just about anything on the floor. In the second game Savage did a lot of posting which led to inside shots and frequent trips to the free throw line. The inside game has to get established because this is one of the weakest three point shooting teams ever for Warren Central, posting just a 30% average from the perimeter. In their matchups with Bowling Green they went just 5-26 from three. But inside the Dragons are fairly consistent, and were in their two matchups this year with Bowling Green, shooting between 40-45% from the floor in each game and hovering around 50% from inside the arc in the two matchups. It’s Bowling Green that wildly fluctuated, and ultimately, that’s going to be the key to the game. If Bowling Green is knocking down open looks, they win. If not, fortune favors the Dragons. Sounds simplistic, but really, that’s the key. And this being a neutral floor, the bet here is that the shooting regresses from the torrid pace the Purples had at home, leading to…. Prediction: Warren Central by 3

There are not many 4th Region records in any time recent that I would claim to not know, but Monroe County accomplished something this season that I am not certain of how long it has been since it occurred. The Falcons ran through their regular season unbeaten against 4th Region teams, and I cannot tell you the last time a team outside the 14th District accomplished that. It is very rare and Monroe County is to be applauded for it. I point that out so you may understand that it is a no-brainer that they are the clear cut favorite for the 15th District crown. That’s not to say they’re incapable of being beaten, but that judging from the results of this season, it seems quite unlikely. Only Allen County-Scottsville’s 64-63 nailbiter result shows vulnerability within the district, the only district contest Monroe County did not win by double digits. Oh, and the tournament is at Monroe County where the Falcons have not lost since last January. To the matchups..... 15th District Tournament at Monroe County High School February 24th #1 Monroe County vs. #4 Glasgow – This is a rematch of last season’s district semifinals, which Monroe County narrowly escaped as the top seed, 67-64 in overtime. That season they split with the Scotties and had actually lost to them by double digits during the year. We actually predicted a Glasgow upset but came up just short. So does that mean Glasgow has a shot this season? No, it does not mean that and no, they do not. Sadly, Glasgow has been in complete disarray this season, stumbling to a 4-22 record and losing to Monroe County three times by an average of 35 points per game. Expect the same here. Prediction: Monroe County by 35 February 25th #2 Barren County vs. #3 Allen County-Scottsville – Since the previous game was a rematch of last year, naturally this is as well. In fact, be it in the semifinals or finals, this is the fourth straight year these teams will meet. All three previous matchups were won by the Trojans, which isn’t a good omen for Allen County-Scottsville. Neither is what occurred in the last meeting of the two teams, a 65-48 blowout win for Barren County on the road at AC/S back on January 23rd. This was after the Patriots were game in an 88-83 triple overtime thriller back in early December that earned our game of the week honors. The Patriots had a strong start to the year relatively speaking. They went 0-3 against a competitive schedule, but then reeled off 7 straight wins and overall won 11 of 14. But since mid-January the needle moved in the other direction, and they are just 3-8 in their last 11 games. Even the wins have been suspect, coming against teams that are a combined 14-64, and none were even by double digits. This is a team that was in desperate need of some momentum coming into the postseason, but it is not going to happen thanks to the snow. The Patriots do have two of the top scorers in the region in big man Dylan Haper (19.6 PPG) and Jake Sikes (15.0 PPG), and they’ll need them to come up big. Barren County meanwhile has been chugging along as they usually do, posting another 20 win season and a strong 16-4 record in their last 20 games. Their only region losses have been to four of the top teams in the region, Monroe County (twice), Bowling Green, Warren Central, and Russell County. Barren County is the type of team that can bury you in a hurry if they heat up from outside, led by sharpshooter Wade Coomer, who has made 47 treys on the season and averages 18.8 points per game. Nick Mabe helps shoulder the load with a 13.2 PPG clip as well. Ultimately, it is hard to see AC/S pulling the upset with the way their last month and a half has gone. Prediction: Barren County by 12 February 27th Predicted Matchup #1 Monroe County vs. #2 Barren County – The undefeated region campaign for Monroe County is a true feather in their cap, but it isn’t the game they’re really hunting. They’re out for titles, and that begins with the district title. They have not won one since moving over to the 15th District in 2006, last winning a district crown back in 2004 when they were in the 16th District. It’s been a long, long wait, and there’s nowhere better for them to try to do it than on their home court. We predict they’ll have to go through Barren County to do it, and the Trojans are the three time defending district champions, which includes a bit of an upset victory by the Trojans over Monroe County a year ago. The Falcons have the KABC player of the year in Dillon Geralds, who can play just about anywhere on the floor. When he gets hot he will have no conscience about where he shoots it from and you can bet he’ll make them. He can play the post, the wing, up top, anywhere. He’s surrounded by perimeter shooters that have helped the Falcons to a modest 35% clip from three, and four players have made 30 or more treys. It makes the Falcons very difficult to guard and is why they boast one of the state’s highest scoring margins with an average victory of over 14 PPG. They are tournament tested thanks to their run through the region’s All A tournament and a run to the finals of the state tournament. They have experience in close games too, winning a trio of games against one of the region’s best - Clinton County - by a combined 5 points. Simply put, the Falcons can play any way they need to, and they are the class of the district. After they get this trophy, they’ll look for more at Diddle. Prediction: Monroe County by 9

Last year the 13th District was chaos, with seemingly anyone capable of beating any other team. There’s not nearly as much of that this season and everything settled into a nice package at the end, with Logan County sweeping everyone, Russellville sweeping everyone else, and Franklin-Simpson just sweeping Todd County Central. Which would seem to set up a boring 13th District tournament, but there is just a bit of intrigue out there thanks to a long midseason absence of the best player in the district, and what his return might bring to the postseason. To the matchups….. February 24th #1 Logan County vs. #4 Todd County Central – Logan County may have been sweating it down the stretch, watching the scoreboard to see what was happening with Franklin-Simpson. Last year Franklin-Simpson fell into the 4 spot and knocked off the Cougars by 1, ending Logan County’s hopes of returning to the region tournament for just the second time since 1998. This year Logan County played the Wildcats for a half with a healthy Tavin Lovan, and held on to win by 8. Without Lovan in January, Logan County blew the doors off by 21. But they knew Lovan would be back, and thankfully he returned in time to lead the Wildcats to a pair of wins over Todd County Central, knocking the Rebels down into the 1/4 game with Logan County. The Cougars dominated the season series between the two, winning by 35 on their homecourt, then 18 on the road back on January 9th. They do have the disadvantage of playing the Rebels on the road, but it’s a far less daunting task. Todd County Central is just 3-26 on the year with only a single region win, that over hapless Glasgow. The Cougars were playing well leading up to the snow layoff, with close losses to powerful Hopkinsville and Bowling Green interspersed with a trio of wins. The Cougars should roll with their balanced attack from Ben Wright (15.5 PPG), Tahmir Graham (12.1 PPG), Taylor Blakemore (12.0 PPG), and Noah Whittinghill (10.8 PPG). Prediction: Logan County by 23 February 25th #2 Russellville vs. #3 Franklin-Simpson – This is the one to watch. This is probably the best 2/3 game in the entire region. Franklin-Simpson’s 9-17 record is the most deceiving record in the entire Commonwealth because of the midseason absence of Tavin Lovan. Lovan averages 26.4 points per game. 26.4. Leaves just a bit of a gap when he’s not on the floor, which he wasn’t thanks to a broken non-shooting wrist suffered in their loss against Logan County on December 12th. He did not return until January 30th against Todd County Central. In between, the Wildcats went 2-14, including losing their last nine without him. You can do the quick math to see that they went 7-3 when was in uniform, and that includes the game he only played a half of against Logan County. He played against Russellville in their second matchup, in just his second game back. The Panthers won a tight one 68-66 despite Lovan’s 35 points. That matchup proves that even with Lovan there the Wildcats need someone else to step up. Russellville for their part has put together a solid 12-11 campaign, with many of their losses suffered against the upper echelon of the region. They put together a strong 7 game winning streak during the middle of January, and have a trio of double digit scorers in DeAndre Bradshaw (13.4 PPG), Lee McMurry (13.1 PPG), and Jason Mitchell (12.0 PPG). The Panthers have a history of winning in the district semifinals, and their 11 straight region tournament appearances are a 4th Region record. Neither team in this is going to be an easy out, but someone has to come out on top. In this case, we’re going with the team with the best player. Prediction: Franklin-Simpson by 2 February 27th Predicted Matchup #1 Logan County vs. #3 Franklin-Simpson – It’s been hammered above that the season matchups between these two aren’t necessarily indicative of what will happen here, so we won’t dwell on it. Logan County, though, has established themselves as a bit of a dark horse for the entire region. They’ve had some lows (13 point loss to Greenwood, 24 point loss to Barren County), but have put up a lot of fight when playing the likes of Warren Central and Bowling Green, and have proven themselves capable of making some noise in the region tournament. It was mentioned in last year’s preview that Logan County has not won the district since 1993 when there were only three teams, and haven’t won a four team district tourney since 1988. We thought they’d get it done then but Franklin-Simpson was standing in their way. They’ll be in their way again, but this time the Cougars finish the job. Prediction: Logan County by 6

The 15th District was one of those that was easy to get a handle on the top for most of the year. There was Barren County, and then the rest of the district. The Trojans won their first five district games and looked to be on their way to an undefeated slate. All but one of those wins were by double digits, but a home win over Monroe County in January required OT, and was the first sign of vulnerability for Barren. That vulnerability was exposed on January 25th when Glasgow blasted them by 14 points. It was a game that didn't ultimately matter for seeding purposes, but was a sign that Barren County could be beaten. And who should Barren County end up playing in the district tourney? Glasgow. To the matchups..... 16th District Tournament at Barren County High School February 18th #1 Barren County vs. #4 Glasgow - In 2009, this was the matchup in the district semifinals, only with the reverse situation. Then, it was Barren County that entered as the 4 seed and Glasgow was considered a dark horse candidate for winning the region. But Barren County stunned the region by knocking off heavily favored Glasgow to advance to the region tourney. This year is on more even ground that that matchup was. Glasgow has been uneven, but the Scotties have notched big wins over teams like Russellville and Wayne County, and of course the win over Barren themselves. Barren has the big win over Russell County as well as one over Bowling Green, but have had some real head scratchers, such as the loss to Glasgow, a near loss to Monroe, and especially a loss to Franklin-Simpson. But the Trojans are at home, just as they were in 2009 when they beat Glasgow. They won their home game against Glasgow this year. And they should win it again. Just don't be shocked if it goes the other way. Prediction: Barren County by 5 #2 Monroe County vs. #3 Allen County-Scottsville - Monroe County took their lumps in December, falling to both Barren County and Glasgow in the district, but January and February have been much kinder to the Falcons. They went 3-1 in the district in the new year, including sweeping their opponent Allen County-Scottsville. Monroe's only losses were to teams rated in the top 6 of the region, falling by 3 to Bowling Green, 3 to Barren in OT, and 15 at Clinton County in the All A Classic. AC/S is a team going in the other direction. After a respectable 7-3 start, the Patriots are 7-10 going into a week that will see them likely take losses to Warren Central and Russell County. There's a good chance they'll enter the postseason losing 4 straight and 6 of 8. Adding that plus Monroe's previous victories over them, it's an easy choice as to who wins. Prediction: Monroe County by 9 February 21st Predicted Matchup #1 Barren County vs. #2 Monroe County - Win or lose, it may not matter what happens in the 15th District final. Come the region draw, either team will be hoping to draw a team from the 13th District to avoid the landmines of the 14th or 16th District. It didn't profit Barren County any last year when they ended up drawing Russell County and making a swift exit from the region tourney. Which isn't to say it means nothing in the moment. Barren County will be looking to win back to back districts, something they haven't done since 2003 & 2004. Monroe will be looking for their first district title since 2004 when they were in the 16th District, and a Falcon win would complete a four year run that saw every team win one district title. Monroe will face a tough task in beating the Trojans at home, where Barren County fell only once this season. The Falcons did have their better game against Barren there, but the Trojans will make it back to back and complete a three game sweep of the Falcons. Prediction: Barren County by 6

The 14th District tournament has been dominated by Bowling Green and Warren Central for the last 17 years. That's how long it has been since another team won the tournament, with Greenwood taking the title in 1996. The two teams were ranked #1 & #2 in our preseason rankings of the 4th Region and expected to meet for an unprecedented fourth consecutive region final. Just one problem.... They play in the semifinals of the district. Warren East crashed the party this year earning a season sweep of Warren Central. And despite being swept by Bowling Green themselves, coach Casey Simpson snatched the 1 seed for the Raiders at the district tournament draw to break the three way tie. So there will be at least one top team absent from the 4th Region tourney. It remains to be seen if someone can break the 17 year hold on the district. To the matchups..... 14th District Tournament at Greenwood High School February 18th #4 South Warren vs. #5 Greenwood - The Spartans swept the season series between these two teams by a combined 35 points. The Gators have managed to keep it close in a couple of district games against Bowling Green and Warren East, but haven't remotely solved the Spartans. It says here that they won't in the tournament either. Prediction: South Warren by 10 February 20th Predicted Matchup #4 South Warren vs. #1 Warren East - The Raiders are looking to return to the region tournament for the first time since 1997. The district draw gave them a clear path there, avoiding Bowling Green who swept them. Their predicted opponent South Warren nearly upset the Raiders in December, losing on a last second tip in by Aaron Strange. It gave East a win in a game they led for only 12 seconds in the second half. The Raiders led the entire second half in the rematch, but still only won by 5. A win is no guarantee, but this Raiders team has the feel of one destined to get back to region. The Spartans take the step of winning a postseason game this year, but East stops them short of their first region tourney appearance. Should the Gators pull the upset of South Warren, their Cinderella story will end against the Raiders. East won by only 6 in their early January meeting, but bombed them to the tune of a 25 point victory in the last matchup. Prediction: Warren East by 9 over South Warren or Warren East by 14 over Greenwood February 21st #2 Bowling Green vs. #3 Warren Central - The regional tournament's loss is the 14th district tourneys gain. These two teams met in the last 3 region finals but will meet in a district elimination game for the first time since 2008. Bowling Green won that 2008 matchup and has won 6 of the 9 previous district semifinal matchups between these two teams. Warren Central has been the thorn in the Purples' side this season, dealing them their only two district losses and as of this writing 2 of the 3 losses Bowling Green has suffered in their last 14 games (the other to BGP Top 5 team Hopkinsville). Central, for their part, is 14-0 against teams not named Warren East since late December, averaging a margin of victory of 17 points in those wins. In the season series between these two, the Dragons were thoroughly dominant for 7 of the 8 quarters played, but it was that 8th quarter that showed what the Purples were capable of, storming back from an 18 point deficit entering the 4th quarter of their first matchup to take a 5 point lead. The Purples ultimately fell in double overtime of that game, but it's enough to plant a seed of doubt in the Dragons and a grain of confidence in the Purples. It's a sign that either team can walk out of this game and the winner will enter the region tournament as the favorite regardless of the district final outcome. It's tough to beat a team three times in the same year, but the Dragons have also never lost a postseason matchup to the Purples in a year where they swept the regular season series, going 7-0 in those games. The prediction here is that they extend that record. Prediction: Warren Central by 4 February 23rd Predicted Matchup #1 Warren East vs. #3 Warren Central - While no team other than Warren Central or Bowling Green has won the district since 1996, for Warren East the drought is even longer. You have to go all the way back to 1989 to find the last time the Raiders won a district championship, a title they owned in their first 20 years, winning 10 times. Former district member Franklin-Simpson, which hasn't played in the district since 1994, has won one more recently (two in fact). Getting to region is the most important goal for Warren East but it would be a statement if they could break that drought and hold Warren Central and Bowling Green have had. In this predicted matchup, it would require them to defeat Warren Central for a third time this year. The Raiders won the first two matchups by pulling away in the second half of each low scoring affair, ultimately winning by margins of 9 and 7 points. East matches up well with Central, matching their interior presence and have utilized dead-eye shooting from the perimeter to fell the Dragons. If this year is any indication, you can throw out all other Central games when looking at what the Dragons have done. Central has been held below 60 points three times and only twice since December 21st - both were in their losses to Warren East. The Raiders have left the Dragons befuddled after each matchup, and with the Dragons having to compete in a far more difficult semifinal matchup, the prediction here is that the Dragons will leave this one the same way. Prediction: Warren East by 3

So with UK beating Florida, here is the bracket... (1) UK vs winner of: (Fri 1pm) (8) LSU vs (9) Arkansas (Thurs 1pm) (4) UF vs winner of: (Fri 3:30pm) (5) Bama vs (12) USC (Thurs 3:30pm) (2) UT vs winner of: (Fri 7:30) (7) Ole Miss vs (10) Auburn (Thurs 7:30pm) (3) Vandy vs winner of: (Fri 10pm) (6) MSU vs (11) UGA (Thus 10pm) PDF

Do you have a hat? Here’s what you do – write down Allen County-Scottsville, Barren County, Glasgow, and Monroe County on 4 separate strips of paper, fold them up, throw them in the hat. Rustle it around a few times, then pull one out. That method of choosing a champion for this district is almost as likely to produce the correct choice than one based on rational analysis. The district was just all over the place this year. The regular season only served to give us two teams tied for first, two teams tied for third, necessitating coin flips to break each. Preseason favorite and currently highest ranked team Barren County played six district games that were decided by a total of 17 points. Three of Allen County-Scottsville’s four losses came by a combined 11 points. #4 seed Glasgow blew out #1 Monroe County twice. It’s crazy. To the matchups..... 15th District Tournament at Glasgow High School February 25th #1 Monroe County vs. #4 Glasgow – So Monroe County has to be thrilled. Four years go by without them being the #1 seed, but they win the tiebreaker at the district meeting to get the “plum” spot. You know they had to be hoping they’d get Allen County-Scottsville, a team they beat twice, most recently by 30 on February 7th. But no, they draw Glasgow. Waaaaay back in December the Falcons took down the Scotties 74-64 at Monroe County. That came a week after the Falcons had beaten Barren County on the road, and everything was looking great. But then came the All “A” Tournament matchup. Monroe County had just dealt Clinton County their only loss in region play for the year, and looked to be region favorites. Glasgow pulped them by 23 and went on to win the tournament. No problem, shake it off, didn’t count for the seeding purposes. Then Glasgow beat Monroe County by 12 about two weeks later, this time in Glasgow. Where the district tournament is to be played. It’s one of those rare cases that you ignore the seeds and look at the results. And the results say, Glasgow is winning this game. Prediction: Barren County by 5 February 26th #2 Barren County vs. #3 Allen County-Scottsville – Barren County doesn’t have quite the squad they did last year, but they’ve been more than worthy of the favorite tag they had coming into the year, despite their close calls in district play. They lost only two district games, each by a point, and strangely enough both at home. While the other teams have had wild swings in momentum, for the most part, Barren County has stayed on an even keel. They played Warren Central to a 3 point game in early January, have won most of their close games (7-4 in games decided by 6 or less) and haven’t taken any terrible losses. It’s the type of performance you expect from a team with six seniors. Allen County-Scottsville, meanwhile, could scarcely have had worse luck during the year, especially in close games. They went 4-9 in games decided by 6 or less, three of those losses to 15th District teams. They recovered a bit late with a three game win streak, but had a stretch from late December to early February where they lost 10 of 12 games. Anything is possible, and they did split with Barren County in two games that were decided by a total of 3 points, but it’s hard to pick the Patriots here. But that’s not to say it isn’t possible they pull the upset. Prediction: Barren County by 6 February 28th Predicted Matchup #4 Glasgow vs. #2 Barren County – Like last year, the winner and loser of this doesn’t have a huge amount on the line, because they want whoever comes out of the 13th District in the first round of region. Oh sure, maybe they’d like to avoid Warren Central out of the gate, but it’s not like whoever else comes out of the 14th isn’t tough as well, and the 16th District is the same way. But this predicted matchup would be a treat because these two rivals have played some outstanding games this year. Barren County swept the season, winning by 9 in early January and by 2 in OT earlier in February. In the first game, no one could miss. Both teams shot over 55% from the field and combined for 161 points. The second game had a lower score but ratcheted up the drama, with Glasgow missing an opportunity to win in regulation and having a three pointer that would have won it rim out at the close of OT. It’s always crazy when these two hook up, no reason to believe it won’t be again. History isn’t on Glasgow’s side – they haven’t won district at home since 1999. The Trojans are the two time defending champion. It says here they’ll make it three. Prediction: Barren County by 3