Okay ladies and gentlemen, it is once again that time of year for me to break out the Hensley Rating System for the Kentucky HS football playoffs.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantrall Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last few seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict, but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 2A and the HRS predictions:

 

 

Class 2A

91.10 Newport Central Catholic

85.10 Glasgow

81.20 Holy Cross - Cov.

80.70 Owensboro Catholic

80.40 Somerset

80.30 Danville

76.00 Green County

74.20 Bardstown

71.00 Murray

70.50 DeSales

69.45 Christian Academy - Lou.

64.05 Lexington Christian

63.20 Prestonsburg

62.10 Caldwell County

61.10 Washington County

60.40 Butler County

59.80 Hancock County

57.65 Owen County

51.90 Walton-Verona

50.75 Union County

49.70 Middlesboro

49.40 Leslie County

47.20 Crittenden County

45.55 Newport

43.95 Shelby Valley

42.80 Fort Knox

41.80 Lloyd Memorial

40.90 Carroll County

37.85 Betsy Layne

34.50 Ballard Memorial

32.10 Gallatin County

29.45 Todd County Central

28.45 Reidland

25.45 Bishop Brossart

20.75 Shawnee

20.35 Metcalfe County

15.70 Trimble County

9.75 Clinton County

9.30 McLean County

 

 

Region 1

Union County (5-5) at Murray (9-1) - MHS bu 26.25

Crittenden County (3-7) at Hancock County (6-4) - HC by 18.6

Reidland (2-8) at Owensboro Catholic (10-0) - OC by 58.25

Butler County (7-3) at Caldwell County (5-5) - CC by 7.7

Region 2

Washington County (5-5) at Glasgow (10-0) - GHS by 30

Metcalfe County (2-8) at Bardstown (9-1) - BHS by 59.85

Clinton County (0-10) at Christian Acadmeny of Louisville (6-4) - CAL by 65.7

DeSales (5-5) at Green County (7-3) - GC by 11.5

 

Region 3

Newport (4-6) at Owen County (10-0) - OC by 18.1

Carroll County (8-2) at Cov. Holy Cross (7-3) - HC by 46.3

Gallatin County (5-5) at Newport Central Catholic (9-1) - NCC by 65

Lloyd Memorial (4-6) at Walton-Verona (8-2) - W-V by 16.1

 

Region 4

Betsy Layne (6-3) at Somerset (6-4) - SHS by 48.55

Danville (7-3) at Prestonsburg (5-5) - DHS by 11

Middlesboro (4-6) at Leslie County (8-2) - LC by 5.7

Shelby Valley (5-5) at Lexington Christian Acadeny (4-6) - LCA by 26.1

Informative thought. I will pay attention to see how this turns out.

I can only speak for Region 1, I think Murray wins but not by that much. Hancock and OCath win easily, and Caldwell could win big, close, or lose. Depends on how many turnovers they have. They have not been reliable with the football.

As much as I love my Briar Jumpers, they haven't even scored 48 points in a game this season. I don't think they'll win by that many, but they should win comfortably.

I guess Hancock didn't win easily like the system said it would.... Wow that was an exciting playoff game!!!