Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 3A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

Class 1A

Beechwood 89.50

Lexington Christian 82.50

Frankfort 77.05

Raceland 74.90

Hazard 61.95

Mayfield 61.40

Williamsburg 61.20

Crittenden County 59.00

Fairview 58.75

Holy Cross (Louisville) 57.15

Pikeville 53.80

Ballard Memorial 44.00

Paintsville 43.60

Gallatin County 39.30

Harlan 34.65

Ludlow 33.20

 

Ballard Memorial at Crittenden County – CC by 21

Mayfield at Holy Cross (Louisville) – HC by 1.7

Ludlow at Beechwood – BHS by 62.3

Gallatin County at Frankfort – FHS by 43.75

Fairview at Raceland – RHS by 22.15

Lexington Christian at Williamsburg – LCA by 15.3

Paintsville at Hazard – HHS by 24.35

Harlan at Pikeville – PHS by 25.15

 

Class 2A

Fort Campbell 91.35

Newport Central Catholic 88.65

Green County 84.80

Corbin 78.30

Owensboro Catholic 77.00

Danville 76.90

Monroe County 73.00

Middlesboro 72.15

DeSales 71.80

Bardstown 70.30

Prestonsburg 68.25

Holy Cross (Covington) 68.25

Trigg County 67.65

Lloyd Memorial 63.30

Murray 58.05

Bath County 48.55

 

Owensboro Catholic at Trigg County – OC by 3.35

Murray at Fort Campbell – FC by 39.3

Bardstown at Monroe County – MC by 8.7

Green County at Danville – GC by 1.9

Holy Cross (Covington) at DeSales – DHS by 9.55

Lloyd Memorial at Newport Central Catholic – NCC by 31.35

Middlesboro at Prestonsburg – Pburg by 2.1

Bath County at Corbin – CHS by 35.75

 

 

Class 3ACentral 93.10

Belfry 82.75

Breathitt County 78.20

Elizabethtown 76.95

Mason County 70.80

Russell 66.25

Estill County 65.35

Sheldon Clark 64.95

North Oldham 64.60

Harlan County 63.50

Russellville 60.85

Butler County 58.75

Union County 56.50

Shawnee 52.35

Taylor County 51.45

Edmonson County 51.00

 

Butler County at Union County – UC by 3.75

Edmonson County at Russellville – RHS by 15.85

Shawnee at Central – CHS by 46.75

Elizabethtown at North Oldham – E’town by 6.35

Estill County at Taylor County – EC by 7.9

Harlan County at Breathitt County – BC by 20.7

Sheldon Clark at Mason County – MC by 11.85

Russell at Belfry – BHS by 22.5

 

Class 4ABoyle County 101.60

Bell County 100.35

Lexington Catholic 96.15

Franklin-Simpson 81.45

Marion County 79.95

Lone Oak 79.55

Valley 77.40

Bullitt East 77.35

Knox Central 76.80

North Bullitt 73.80

Rockcastle County 73.60

Calloway County 73.60

Allen County-Scottsville 69.65

Franklin County 66.85

Harrison County 59.05

Boyd County 56.30

 

Franklin-Simpson at Calloway County – F-S by 1.85

Lone Oak at Allen County-Scottsville – LO by 3.9

North Bullitt at Valley – VHS by 9.6

Marion County at Bullitt East – BE by 3.4

Lexington Catholic at Harrison County – LC by 31.1

Franklin County at Boyle County – BC by 40.75

Rockcastle County at Bell County – BC by 32.75

Knox Central at Boyd County – KC by 14.5

 

Class 5A

Highlands 115.50

Bowling Green 98.80

Owensboro 95.60

John Hardin 94.85

Johnson Central 94.50

Christian County 90.90

Doss 90.15

Oldham County 89.65

Covington Catholic 88.50

Mercer County 85.60

Hopkinsville 84.35

Ashland Blazer 82.60

Whitley County 82.15

Letcher County Central 76.25

Anderson County 73.15

Pulaski County 71.35

 

Hopkinsville at Christian County – CC by 6.55***

Owensboro at Bowling Green – BG by 9.2

Anderson County at Doss – DHS by 23

John Hardin at Oldham County – OC by 0.8

Ashland Blazer at Highlands – HHS by 38.9

Covington Catholic at Johnson Central – JC by 12

Letcher County Central at Mercer County – MC by 15.35

Pulaski County at Whitley County – WC by 16.8

 

***home team does not receive home field advantage points because it shares the same field as its current opponent

 

Class 6A

St. Xavier 126.35

Trinity (Louisville) 118.90

Scott County 95.95

Madison Central 95.90

Boone County 94.85

duPont Manual 94.65

Henry Clay 94.05

Pleasure Ridge Park 93.20

Ballard 92.05

Male 91.80

Eastern 89.65

Fern Creek 88.75

Simon Kenton 86.45

Conner 84.70

Seneca 83.40

Greenwood 76.75

 

Seneca at Eastern – EHS by 9.55

Ballard at Trinity – T by 32.85

duPont Manual at Greenwood – M by 11.9

Pleasure Ridge Park at St. Xavier – X by 39.15

Henry Clay at Boone County – BC by 6.8

Simon Kenton at Conner – CHS by 4.25

Madison Central at Male – H by 1.9

Fern Creek at Scott County – SC by 13.2

Sorry folks for just now getting this posted. I have had a busy week with classes and now work. But since it is now posted, enjoy!!!

Sorry folks for just now getting this posted. I have had a busy week with classes and now work. But since it is now posted, enjoy!!!

 

Thanks Statman, as always, great stuff

Thanks. Hope they hold true. Look pretty good to me!!!

Looks good. Thanks...