An area of low pressure will move into the lower Great Lakes region on Sunday, with a threat of thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon into the late evening. Confidence is steadily growing in all severe threats (including a tornado threat). Areas along and west of I-65 will see the greatest potential for severe weather. A flooding threat could also develop later Sunday and linger into Monday.

 

 

 

An area of low pressure will move into the lower Great Lakes region on Sunday, with a threat of thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon into the late evening. Confidence is steadily growing in all severe threats (including a tornado threat). Areas along and west of I-65 in western Kentucky have the highest chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday, while central Kentucky could see storms weaken somewhat as they move east depending on atmospheric recovery. Eastern Kentucky appears to have the lowest severe threat, though a few strong storms could still arrive Sunday evening or overnight.

Forecast Confidence: Moderate, with uncertainty tied to how much the atmosphere recovers after morning thunderstorms.
 

 

 

 

 

For Kentucky, the primary severe weather threat is expected to arrive later Sunday as thunderstorms developing over Illinois and Indiana move east into the Ohio Valley. While the most significant risk for widespread severe weather, including strong tornadoes, is forecast to remain northwest of the state across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, some of these storms could maintain strength as they approach western and northern Kentucky.

The atmosphere over Kentucky is expected to become increasingly warm, humid, and unstable during the afternoon and evening as moisture returns behind any morning storm activity. This will create a favorable environment for thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall. The greatest severe weather risk appears to be across western and north-central Kentucky, with storms potentially spreading eastward during the evening and overnight hours.

Forecast confidence decreases farther east across the state because the exact position of the outflow boundary left behind by earlier storms remains uncertain. Small shifts in this boundary will determine where the strongest storms develop and track. While the highest-end severe threat is expected to remain just northwest of Kentucky, residents across much of the state should closely monitor forecasts, as a few storms could become severe if the atmosphere recovers as anticipated. Damaging straight-line winds appear to be the primary concern, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially near any lingering boundaries.

 

 

 

 

I've noticed some bowing in the lines in the HRRR simulated radar for tomorrow evening and early morning Monday. The bulge could be the most violent part of the system. Usually produces severe straight-live winds that could cause significant wind damage. The northern tip of the bow could create a high risk of brief tornadoes. 

These need to be watched to see if they actually form.

 

 

 

A potentially significant severe weather event is expected across parts of Kentucky this afternoon and evening as a strong storm system moves east from Missouri into the Ohio Valley. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of the strongest storms, the environment will be capable of supporting organized severe thunderstorms.

Storms are expected to move into western Kentucky during the afternoon before spreading east across central Kentucky and eventually into eastern portions of the state through the evening and early night. If enough sunshine develops ahead of the storms, the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable, allowing thunderstorms to intensify quickly.

The primary threats will be widespread damaging wind gusts capable of producing scattered tree damage and power outages, along with large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible, especially across western and central Kentucky, where wind shear will be strongest. An isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out if discrete supercells are able to develop ahead of or within the main line of storms.

Storms may organize into a line with embedded rotating cells as they track eastward, allowing the severe weather threat to continue well into the evening. The greatest risk currently appears to be across western and central Kentucky, with the threat gradually shifting into eastern Kentucky during the evening before storms weaken overnight.

Main Threats: Damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph capable of downing trees and power lines, large hail, a few tornadoes with the possibility of an isolated strong tornado, torrential rainfall leading to localized flash flooding, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning.

Residents across Kentucky should remain weather-aware throughout the day and have multiple ways to receive warnings, as conditions could change quickly. Even with some forecast uncertainty, severe weather could develop rapidly with little advance notice.

 

 

 

 

Update:

Thunderstorms are expected to increase across Kentucky this afternoon and evening as a well-organized line of storms moves east out of Missouri and into the Ohio Valley. Warm, humid air combined with increasing instability will provide a favorable environment for storms to strengthen as they enter the state.

The greatest severe weather threat will be across northern, central, and eastern Kentucky, where storms are expected to become more intense through the afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. While a few storms could initially develop into rotating supercells capable of producing isolated tornadoes, the overall storm mode is expected to evolve into one or more fast-moving lines capable of widespread damaging wind gusts.

The main threats across Kentucky will be damaging straight-line winds of 60 to 75 mph, isolated tornadoes, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, torrential rainfall that may lead to localized flooding, and hail up to around quarter size in the strongest storms.

Storms are expected to move into western Kentucky late this afternoon, spread across central Kentucky during the evening, and reach eastern Kentucky overnight while gradually weakening. Even so, severe storms may persist well into eastern Kentucky before exiting early Monday morning.

Residents across Kentucky should remain weather aware throughout the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours, as warnings may be issued with little lead time and conditions could deteriorate quickly.

 

 

 

 

Those in the Cincinnati/NKY area should be weather-aware this evening. 

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 1233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0423 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

   Areas affected...Southern and Central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 212123Z - 212300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat is increasing across portions of
   southern Indiana as thunderstorms with a history of producing
   tornadoes across southern Illinois move east into the area. A
   tornado watch will be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells with a history of producing
   tornadoes have developed this afternoon across portions of southern
   Illinois in association with a convectively augmented vorticity
   maximum moving east within zonal mid-level flow. Ahead of these
   supercells, a surface boundary is slowly lifting northward across
   portions of Indiana. To the south of this boundary, surface
   dewpoints have risen into the 60Fs to low 70Fs contributing to
   MLCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg. Along the boundary easterly
   low-level flow will maximize storm-relative helicity, as indicated
   by the Indianapolis VAD (KIND) which suggests around 300 m2/s2. The
   result will be a continued tornado threat this evening across
   portions of southern and central Indiana and a tornado watch will be
   required soon.
 

 

@theguru

Thanks and here we go again.

1 hour ago, theguru said:

Thanks and here we go again.

I know. There are severe, powerful tornadoes on the ground in Indiana.