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Storms Possible Thursday 2/19/26

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Strong storms will be possible Thursday afternoon/early evening. This doesn’t appear to be a widespread event, but everyone should be alert. The potential will exist for possible supercell thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes. 
Perhaps the most notable is that the latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last evening's run concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return to the area of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s by around 3 pm to 7 pm EST. Which may move east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development. This may include supercells with the potential to produce tornadoes and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.

The picture shows the setup as of now. There will exist a broad positively tilted trough (black arrow on the left). Most of the winds and the jet streak will have passed the axis of the trough. This will limit somewhat the potential for a severe weather outbreak. 
The blue circle shows diffluence aloft. This is shown by the black isobar lines spreading apart. This means the winds are spreading apart. When this happens, the atmosphere likes to balance itself out and replace the winds by drawing air and moisture from the surface. These will be the ingredients for strong to severe storms.


The bold black arrows show ridges in the trough, and this will be the trigger for storms to develop. 
The yellow circle shows where I think the best chance for storms will exist. 

Keep checking Bluegrasspreps for updates.
 

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This one caught my attention.

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  • Author

According to models, the developing storm's warm sector will see a return of moisture on Thursday afternoon, with surface dew points in the mid-50s to close to 60°F. Warmer mid- and upper-level temperatures, however, might prevent severe storms. Even though forecast soundings indicate marginal instability (CAPE of about 500 J/kg), low-topped convection may still form supercells with strong shear, which could result in small hail and tornadoes. Stronger gusts may also be brought by a small storm cluster. Keep checking back for updates!

 

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  • Author

Briefing slide I just received from the NWS-Louisville office. They also stated that the most concern is for southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky for the strongest severe threat.

 

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  • Author

While the main focus of the storm activity is expected to be in Illinois, southeastern Indiana, and parts of Missouri, Kentucky could still be affected by the weather system. The storms are likely to move eastward through the region, so Kentucky may see some impacts later in the day, particularly in the evening.

Kentucky could experience severe thunderstorms, especially in the western and central parts of the state. These storms could bring heavy rainfall, large hail, and the potential for damaging wind gusts. There's also a small possibility of tornadoes, particularly in the strongest storms, though the risk for Kentucky is expected to be lower than in areas further west.

Overall, Kentucky should stay alert, especially by late afternoon and evening, as the storm system moves eastward. The timing and severity of impacts will depend on how the storms evolve as they move into the region.

 

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