Some areas could see their first accumulating snow to kick off December. This forecast covers Monday evening through Tuesday morning. A low-pressure system near the Gulf Coast will track up the East Coast during that time, sending moisture toward the Ohio Valley.

Precipitation will begin as rain, but colder air wrapping around the system Monday night will likely change the rain over to snow for parts of Kentucky. At this point, the best chance for any accumulation appears to be north of the Cumberland Parkway, with chances increasing the farther north you go.

Model guidance is still split. The GFS is showing 6+ inches around Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky, but that should be taken with a grain of salt—its nighttime cold bias often leads to overstated snowfall totals. The Euro model is more reasonable, showing a general 1–3 inches.

I’ll have another update this weekend, probably when I return from vacation.

 

 

 

 

 

Any thoughts on Tuesday yet?  I'm supposed to have surgery in Cincinnati that day and I'm hoping the weather doesn't make that commute any worse than it already is. 

1 hour ago, sportsfan41 said:

Any thoughts on Tuesday yet?  I'm supposed to have surgery in Cincinnati that day and I'm hoping the weather doesn't make that commute any worse than it already is. 

This far out it is hard to say, but I'd prepare for around 1-3 inches in that area.

 First Call for Snow Accumulations—Monday Night into Tuesday 

Our first look at the potential for snow early next week shows the best chance for meaningful accumulation stretching along the Ohio River—from around Owensboro up through Cincinnati/NKY based on current GEFS ensemble trends.

• Along the Ohio River: Snow totals of 1–3 inches look possible.
• North of Cincinnati: Some locations could see up to 5 inches.
• South of the river: Expect a dusting to around 1 inch at this time.

One thing to watch: areas right along the Ohio River may see a brief period of freezing rain before switching to snow, with around 0.10" of ice possible.

This is still an early call, so expect adjustments as we get closer. I’ll keep you updated!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second Snowfall Call

Alright, here’s where things stand with the latest data. Both the NAM and GFS are showing a wider area of possible snow. The NAM is doing what it usually does—overestimating the cold and moisture—so I’m taking some of its numbers with a grain of salt. Even so, its coverage area lines up pretty well with the GFS.

The GFS has trended closer to what the Euro was showing, and totals between the two are now much closer. The GEFS ensemble still shows a 90–100% chance of at least 1 inch north of I-64, and those odds drop the farther south you go. The NAM also looks like it’s overdoing the freezing rain potential, while the GFS shows less icing than it did yesterday.

So here’s my second call:

North of I-64: 2–4", with the higher end around Cincinnati/NKY

Just south of I-64 into western Kentucky: a narrow 1–3" band

Farther south: dusting to 2", with totals dropping as you go south.

I’ll put out another update later this evening. Just got home from vacation a couple hours ago and need a little rest first!

I almost forgot to mention that the timing is from Monday evening to Tuesday morning/early afternoon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This will be my last call for snow accumulations. After the snow is over in your area, please post your totals. I will make a new thread for that.