This is my initial prediction for the games on Friday. I'm covering the hours of 5 to 11 p.m. EDT. Over Michigan's upper peninsula, an upper-level low is predicted. The majority of the Ohio Valley region will be covered by an accompanying wide upper-level trough. The trough, plus the counterclockwise spin of the low, will generate southwesterly winds and introduce a moist air mass into Kentucky as this system moves eastward. The range of dew points is low to mid-60s. West of I-65, temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-90s. They will be in the middle to upper 80s east of I-65. 

These conditions will cause some lift and vorticity (spin) in the atmosphere. This might be sufficient to provide CAPE values of 1200 J/kg. This will be adequate to generate a few thunderstorms and showers. We are too far away at this point to predict if any of these storms will be severe or strong.

I will post updates as we get closer to Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

Not often we get a vorticity reference on BGP. Well done.  

12 hours ago, mcpapa said:

Not often we get a vorticity reference on BGP. Well done.  

Over the past couple of months I've increased my studies on severe weather a lot. For various reasons I don't watch a lot of TV. Most of my leisure time I spend reading and watching lectures on weather, among other topics. 

For instance, the past couple of weeks I've been watching case studies on some of the biggest tornado outbreaks from the past several years. Learning the parameters that caused them.

6 hours ago, nWo said:

Over the past couple of months I've increased my studies on severe weather a lot. For various reasons I don't watch a lot of TV. Most of my leisure time I spend reading and watching lectures on weather, among other topics. 

For instance, the past couple of weeks I've been watching case studies on some of the biggest tornado outbreaks from the past several years. Learning the parameters that caused them.

Do you ever watch those “deadliest weather” shows, or are they just sensationalist fluff with no real educational value?

10 minutes ago, mcpapa said:

Do you ever watch those “deadliest weather” shows, or are they just sensationalist fluff with no real educational value?

Yes, I do. You can learn some things from it. I mainly watch the ones that analyze the storm, showing the weather conditions that were present to make the storm so bad. Like this one.

 

 

I also watch lectures on weather like this one.

 

The forecast's only significant alteration is the precipitation field's relocation to western Kentucky. If there is any precipitation at all. The threat for strong storms has diminished. 

 

 

 

It should be a good night for high school football. Chances are coming next week.