From mid-afternoon until mid-evening, there is a chance of a few tornadoes, as well as sporadic damaging winds and large hail in areas of the central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley.

In this setup, a few supercells are likely, and some of them might develop into long-tracked ones. These seem most likely to occur in the southeast Ohio to northern West Virginia area, where the early evening hours should have the highest tornado risk. Otherwise, a combination of destructive wind blows and large hail is anticipated.
 

 

 

Sunday evening update.

A few severe storms are expected to develop across northeast Kentucky. Gusty winds, hail, and lightning are the main threats. A spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out; however, the threat is low. The main time window for strong storms is 3-9 PM EDT.

Please keep us updated on this one @nWo.

Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a tornado threat will be possible.

The jet will support strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings this afternoon from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia have MLCAPE peaking near 1500 J/kg with wind shear in the 60 to 65 knot range. This will support a severe threat associated with isolated supercells and short bowing line segments.

Large hail will be most likely with supercells. In addition, the low-level jet is forecast to steadily increase in the late afternoon and early evening near the area of high dew point values. This will create strong low-level shear favorable for a tornado threat. The tornado threat is expected to be the greatest from northeastern Kentucky into parts of West Virginia. I would include the Cincinnati/northern Kentucky area also. Supercells and short bowing line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage during the early to mid-evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the level 2 slight risk area for today. The timing for the maps below is from 3-11 PM EDT.