On Wednesday, a strong upper trough with a negative tilt will pass over the Midwest and into the Great Lakes from the Plains. There will be an overspread of extremely strong vertical lifting accompanied by a jet stream of more than 100 kts. A large, unstable warm sector originating from the MS Valley, OH Valley, and Great Lakes will cause widespread, numerous thunderstorms as a powerful cold front moves eastward. The Storm Prediction Center has most of Kentucky under a level 3 enhanced risk area. A section of eastern Kentucky is in a level 2 slight risk area. 

 

Update:

Strong southerly non-thunderstorm winds on Wednesday, with gusts over 40 mph possible.

Severe thunderstorms will develop west of the Mississippi River during the afternoon. These storms will push into Kentucky and Indiana during the evening hours.

All hazards are in play, though the main threats could be damaging winds and spin-up tornadoes. Confidence in severe storms developing is high.

@nWo, I am sporadically in-and-out of discussions on other topics. But whenever serious weather is predicted, I find that I most often come here; knowing that your wisdom and insight is among the most trustworthy.

Thank you.

5 hours ago, Bluto said:

@nWo, I am sporadically in-and-out of discussions on other topics. But whenever serious weather is predicted, I find that I most often come here; knowing that your wisdom and insight is among the most trustworthy.

Thank you.

Thank you very much. I really appreciate it. 

Numerous severe storms are likely Wednesday night for Kentucky. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and strong tornadoes are possible.

Thunderstorm development appears likely along the trough that will be ahead of the cold front or within the broader warm sector in the lower OH valley by midafternoon. Strong wind shear profiles may support a mixed mode of supercells and clusters as storms develop within very favorable conditions for significant severe weather. Any longer-lived supercell will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, in addition to very large hail and damaging winds. Upgrades in the risk categories may be needed if the current trends continue.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This chart for tomorrow night has gotten my attention. This is a surface-based cape map. It shows the convective available potential energy for thunderstorm development. Some of the readings in the darker colors are around 2500 J/kg if not higher. This means the atmosphere will have moderate to strong instability.  So any storm that comes into this enviroment could rotate and produce a tornado. Some of which could be quite strong.       

The red barb is showing winds at the surface coming out of the south. The blue barb shows winds at around 5000 ft coming out of the southwest.    Finally the black barb shows winds at around 18000 ft out of the west/southwest.  Without going into the details it is showing winds at different hieghts flowing out of different directions at different speeds. 

Everyone across the entire state should be watching this system and be preparing your emergency action plan. 

Update on the potential severe weather event for Wednesday evening through Thursday morning:

The time frame that will be covered is 8 p.m. to 8 a.m. EDT. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid-seventies. The mid-60s to potentially the low 70s will be the dew point.

The resulting air mass will be warm and humid, providing fuel for potential storms. Cape values will fall between 2000 and 3000 j/kg. The significant tornado parameter, or STP-cin, may range from 6 to 7. This implies the possibility of tornadoes with a strength of EF-2 or higher. According to the Skew-T chart, EF-4s are feasible. I anticipate that the threat level will increase if this keeps on, particularly west of I-65.

In light of this, I will issue a BGP Severe Weather Alert.

I want to remind you all once more to review your severe weather plan. Have multiple ways to receive any alerts.

 

 

This is what the Skewed-T chart looks like.