We could be going through another widespread, potentially substantial, severe event. It remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% slight risk area was depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% enhanced risk area is being introduced from Arkansas northeastward to the mid-Ohio Valley. It appears that the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during the afternoon and evening hours.

 

This one worries me more than the system tomorrow. 

 

Model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates (a rapid decrease in temperatures as air rises) atop a moist/daytime heating warm sector will support widespread convective development.

Modeling data suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In addition to very large hail, widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight.