Regional Severe Weather Outbreak 3/14/25

[nWo]

A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible.

This will be a nocturnal outbreak, so everyone should be going over their emergency action plan today. Have more than one way to get severe weather warnings.

The individual cells I have circled have me really concerned. This is about 9 pm EDT tonight. Some of these cells have a STP with CIN of 8.2 out of 15. So there is a good chance of seeing EF2-EF5 tornadoes in any supercell that forms. Those in western Kentucky should really pay attention to any storm development west/southwest of their area. 

 

 

 

This is from 9 pm tonight till 8 am Saturday

There will be wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph even with a storm being present. So even if you don't see severe storms, everyone should be prepared for power outages.

 

Here are the very latest Storm Prediction Center maps.

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

The dew points yesterday showed being in the 50° range. The very latest NAM 3km shows the air will be really unstable with dew points in the 60° range in western Kentucky. This plus the significant tornado parammeter and supercell map is why my concern is growing for tonight.

 

[nWo]

A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely.

Ample daytime heating is expected through this afternoon ahead of the system, with elevated convection already occurring across parts of eastern OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. More robust, surface-based thunderstorms will likely develop by early/mid afternoon (2-5pm EDT) along/east of the dryline from parts of eastern NE southward into eastern KS/western MO as a southerly low-level jet attempts to bring shallow boundary-layer moisture northward into the mid MS Valley and vicinity. Intense thunderstorm straight-line gusts peaking locally in the 80-100 mph range are possible with the stronger cores/inflections in the band as it matures. Additional, potentially more discrete, severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon farther southeast along the wind shift into central/eastern MO, generally on the northern periphery of somewhat better low-level moisture from southeast MO southward into the Mid-South. Latest model guidance suggests scattered supercells developing late this afternoon and evening as far south as the MS/AR/TN border region. Various model forecast soundings strongly favor intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter) and potentially multiple strong to intense tornadoes this evening. This substantial, severe threat is expected to continue eastward overnight into parts of the lower OH Valley/Midwest, before convection eventually outpaces the low-level moisture return and weakens.

 

The level 4 moderate-risk area has been expanded to include all of western Kentucky. A level 3 enhanced risk is extended to just about Madisonville. One thing I keep neglecting to mention is about the hatched area. That means a 15% chance of seeing an EF2-EF5 tornado. While that seems low. Only 1% of all thunderstorms produce a tornado. Then you can see that a 15% chance is high.

In the wind damage map, you can see a section of western Kentucky with a greater than 60% chance (high risk) of damaging winds. This is highlighted by the purple from around Paducah to Madisonville. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jumper_Dad]

Several tornados on the ground confirmed in far eastern Missouri and up into Central Illinois. Storms tracking to hit Fulton, Mayfield, Paducah area of western Kentucky soon.

[Jumper_Dad]

Red boxes nearly all have confirmed tornados in them.

[nWo]

So far, there have been 5 confirmed tornadoes in the red circle I highlighted.

[nWo]

This is the area I circled before the storm system moved through Missouri.

 

This map shows the tornado reports red is warning. Black dot tornado reports.

 

[nWo]

This is from the southeast storms

 

[nWo]

With my predictions, I used the new techniques I've been studying this winter.

[nWo]

Here is a list of the tornadoes from southeast Missouri so far:

Town/City  tornado strength

Freemont, MO EF-3
Leeper, MO EF-3
Gads Hill, MO EF-3
Fairdealing, MO EF-2
Poplar Bluff, MO  EF-3
Sikeston, MO EF-1
 

[nWo]

Everyone can probably see which super cell produced the tornadoes.