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11th Region: Rankings and First Round Previews and Predictions

Carl Spackler
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Carl Spackler

Carl Spackler

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The District Tournaments are in the books, and we've arrived at the Regional Tournament.  There were no major upsets in the District Tournaments.  Probably the biggest surprise was a 10-20 Western Hills team getting by Franklin County and into the Regional Tournament.  But Franklin County came in at  11-13 and it was a rivalry game.  Bryan Station's win over Frederick Douglass could also be seen as an upset, given that the Broncos had already beaten the Defenders 3 times this season.  But every game in that series was closer than the previous one, so the Station win was not a shocker. Every game is an elimination game now, with a trip to Rupp Arena and the Sweet Sixteen the prize.  All 4 first round games will be played on Tuesday, at the home of the 4 District Champions.  The semifinals and finals will be played on March 8th and 11th at Paul Laurence Dunbar.  With all 4 opening round games being played on the same night, and the spacing between the rounds, it would seem that preparation time and fatigue should not be a factor in the tournament.  Let's take a look at how the teams rank going into the tournament and preview the opening round. 

Rankings

1. Great Crossing 28-4 (12-0 in the region)

2. Frederick Douglass 23-4 (13-3 in the region)

3. Bryan Station 14-6 (15-3 in the region)

4. Lexington Catholic 22-9 (13-1 in the region)

5. Madison Central 20-11 (9-5 in the region)

6. Lexington Christian 15-17 (10-9 in the region)

7. Western Hill 10-20 (6-11 in the region)

8. Berea 14-16 (3-8 in the region)

Game 1: Lexington Christian at Great Crossing March 4th 700pm 

The Warhawks are undefeated in the region, and only have one loss to a Kentucky school all season--to top ranked St. Xavier back on December 15th.  They are led by Mr. Basketball favorite, and UK signee Malachi Moreno.  Moreno averages 21.8 points and 14.7 rebounds per game.  He shoots a ridiculous 71.7% from the floor.  He is far from the only arrow in Coach Steve Page's quiver.  Fellow senior Vince Dawson averages 18.0 points per game and sophomore LJ Holman is also in double figures with 11.5 points per game.  

Lexington Christian Academy comes in the game at only 1-3 in their last 4 games.  That lone win, however, came over Lafayette 53-52 in the district semifinals, to punch their ticket to the 11th Region Tournament.  The Eagles are led by senior Saxton Howard, who averages 25.9 points per game.  He is joined in double figures by Andrew Maggard and Caleb Marshall, who average 12.5 and 10.8 points respectively.  LCA shoots a lot of three pointers, averaging 23.7 attempts per game.  They are very streaky, however, and only connect on them at a 34.8% rate.  They will have to be hot to have any chance against the Warhawks. 

Prediction: 

It is hard to see this game as anything but a blowout in favor of Great Crossing.  For LCA to stay in this game they will have to be on fire from deep, and find a way to slow down Moreno and Dawson.  If they can stay in the game, and make it close at the end, they might have a chance to exploit the one soft spot in the Warhawks armor: free throws.  Great Crossing comes into the game shooting on 64.9% from the line on the year.  The guess here is that the Eagles won't be able to keep it close enough for that to make a difference.  I'm taking the Warhawks in a blowout in this one. 

Game 2: Berea at Bryan Station March 4th 700pm

Bryan Station has only 6 losses on the season.  Three of those are to Frederick Douglass.  The Defenders, however, were able to put those 3 losses behind them and get revenge on the Broncos in the 42nd District Finals with a 59-56 win.  Station is led in scoring by a pair of juniors.  Amari Owens (22.4) and Taeshawn Adams (13.8) are the only Defenders to average in double figures.  Senior Rashaad Faulkner is just shy of that mark with 9.8 points per game.  

Berea comes into the tournament at 14-16, but with wins in 3 of their last 4 contests.  The Pirates were the beneficiary of the 44th District being the only district to use to blind draw system to determine the matchups.  Berea's 60-42 win over Model was their only win against a district foe all season, but it was enough to get them to the regional tournament.  The Pirates are led in scoring by Jack Hemenway at 15.1 points per game.  Joining him in double figures are Finley Blevins and Tommie Banderman, who both average 11.2 points per game.  Banderman also pulls down 9.2 rebounds per contest to average just shy of a double/double. 

Prediction: 

As with game one, this one appears to be a mismatch.  The Pirates went only 3-8 against regional opponents this season and 2 of those wins were against hapless Paul Laurence Dunbar and Frankfort Christian.  I just don't see this one being close.  My pick is the Defenders in a blowout to set up a matchup with Great Crossing in the semifinals.  

Game 3: Western Hills at Lexington Catholic March 4th 700pm

Lexington Catholic comes into the 11th Region Tournament on a real heater, winners of 8 in a row, and 15 of their last 16.  The Knights feature a very balanced attack on offense, as 4 players average in double figures.  That quarter is led by Max Meagher at 12.7 points per game, right behind him is Ryan Harward at 12.2, Hank Woodall at 10.9m and Jacob Holland with 10.0.  The Knights had to replace 9 seniors from last year's 32-3 Region Runner-Up team, and started off slowly at 6-4, but have it going now.  This is a very dangerous team and could push any of the "Big 3" of Great Crossing, Frederick Douglass and Bryan Station.  

Western Hills at 10-20 is the team that it is most surprising to see in the regional tournament.  The Wolverines top player is senior Javeon Campbell, who averages 19.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Fellow senior Elijah is Western Hills only other double digit scorer with 14.7 points per game.  The wild card in this game might be a couple of players that don't average in double figures for the Wolverines, however.  Senior Cole McDonald shoots 38.7% on three pointers, and has made 60 on the season.  Meanwhile freshman Preston Clouse is at 37.3% on 44 makes from deep.  They will need those 2 to get hot and it 10-12 threes between them to stay in the game.  

Prediction:

This one looks like another one-sided affair.  It's hard to see the Wolverines pushing the Knights deep into this game.  My pick is another blowout in favor of the home team.  

Game 4: Frederick Douglass at Madison Central March 4th 700pm

The Indians experienced a complete turnaround from last season's uncharacteristic 10-23 struggle, as they finished 20-11.  Seemingly the biggest factor in this turnaround was the addition of Jake Feldhaus, who transferred from Mason County to play for his uncle at Central.  The junior has been simply outstanding for the Indians this season as he has poured in 22.1 points and pulled down 11.3 rebounds per game.  Fellow junior Luke Asher adds 15.5 points per game, while senior Cody Morrison also averages in double figures at 10.2 points per game.  The Indians have scuffled a bit over the last month as they are only 5-5 in their last 10 games after a 15-6 start. 

Frederick Douglass has had a great season so far, with a sparkling 26-4 worksheet.  One of those losses, however, came in the finals of the 42nd District, where Bryan Station was able to squeak by them 59-56 on their 4th attempt this season.  That loss however, could end up being a blessing in disguise.  The 11th Region draw put Great Crossing and Bryan Station in the opposite side of the bracket.  The Broncos have a very deep roster, with 7 players averaging between 4.5 and 15.9 points per game.  DeMarcus Surratt leads the attack with 15.9 points per game.  He is joined in double figures by Juante Jenkins at 14.8.  Tate Robinson, and midseason addition Aveion Chenault both check in at 9.1 points per game.  This is not your typical district runner-up.  

Prediction: 

On paper this would appear to be the best matchup in the first round.  The teams have met once this season, with the Broncos taking an 80-63 decision at home.  This time the Indians have the home court advantage.  In the first game Jake Feldhaus scored 35 points and grabbed 12 rebounds.  However, he was the only Central player in double figures.  He will have to have more help this time if the Indians are to advance.  In the end, I think the Broncos are just too strong for the Indians this season and move on to the semifinals by, say 10 points.  

There you have it: the matchups and my predictions.  How do you see it working out?  

  

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