A tropical wave known as Invest 97L is being watched for possible tropical development. The likelihood of development has grown in the two-day and seven-day outlooks since my last report. It appears more and more likely that this might develop into a powerful storm. Helene will be the storm's name if it gets named. The leftovers of Hurricane Helene will have some impact on Kentucky if the preliminary spaghetti models are accurate. The first intensity map indicates that it may strengthen into a category 4 storm, as I stated yesterday.

 

 

From the National Hurricane Center-Miami:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of 
organization with a broad area of low pressure located over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical 
depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days 
as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea 
and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where additional 
development is possible. 

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy 
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. 
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this 
system. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally 
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the 
northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor 
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

11:00 AM EDT Advisory from the National Hurricane Center-Miami.

Invest 97L has the potential to become tropical cyclone 9.

 

 

 

It might be a big day today. There are signs pointing to this becoming a massive storm. This part of the gulf is known for producing powerful hurricanes during this time of year. It is important that everyone in the southeast region of the nation pay attention. It is predicted to intensify quickly today. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the Air Force is currently in route to the system. Following landfall, flooding will be a significant issue. There are also reports that suggest this might potentially reach Cat 5. However, none of the models I employ depict that. I do not have access to as much information as others do.

The Goes Satellite is showing this is becoming a massive storm. Also, the spaghetti models are showing a narrowing of the possible track of this system. 

 

 

Invest 97L has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene.

 

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West.  Helene is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday.  A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast of Florida late Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the system has acquired a well-defined center of circulation, and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.  Continued strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could become a major hurricane on Thursday.

 

You can see the center of circulation on the GOES Satellite image. 

 

Another big storm for that part of Florida.