It is possible that a storm will form in the gulf immediately off the Yucatan Peninsula by the end of the next week. Predicting anything this far out is difficult, but the latest GFS suggests that a large hurricane might form and move toward Florida's west coast. I noticed this since last year, at this same time, my wife and I were taking a cruise in this same area. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, indicates that there is currently a 40–60% chance that a system may form by the middle of next week. The models have shown a marked increase in this potential system's strength since the beginning of this week.

If anyone has a cruise planned, they might want to keep a close eye on this system.

From the National Hurricane Center Miami, FL:

Quote

 Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

 

 

A broad area of low pressure should form during the next few days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America.  Hereafter, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.  Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

1 hour ago, nWo said:

A broad area of low pressure should form during the next few days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America.  Hereafter, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.  Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

Not a fan of that projected track. Have family right in the middle of it, one of which just went through major surgery this week.

I'll be keeping a close eye on your updates this week.

10 hours ago, Jumper_Dad said:

Not a fan of that projected track. Have family right in the middle of it, one of which just went through major surgery this week.

I'll be keeping a close eye on your updates this week.

Here's this morning's outlook. We'll get more information once the system forms. 

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few 
days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions 
of Central America.  Thereafter, gradual development of this system 
is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the 
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea 
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week.  Regardless of 
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over 
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

 

 

I am only speculating here. The most recent GFS indicates that this system, which is capable of 957 MB pressure, may strengthen into a category 3 hurricane before making landfall, though I lack concrete data to confirm this. Helene would be the name of it. It is hard to know with certainty what will occur in the next few days. Anyone that has any interests from Louisiana to Florida should monitor this system closely. 

I had planned to publish an update early on Monday. That is, until this afternoon, when I glanced at this model run. The probability has also been raised to 80% by the National Hurricane Center. It is also critical to remember that the tropical system will intensify earlier than expected. It is now anticipated that this will strengthen into a strong storm. This morning, I was talking about a system with pressure in the 950 MB zone. This afternoon's modeling data shows that the pressure is decreasing to the low 930 MB zone. This may suggest that a category 4 storm has a potential chance of developing before it makes landfall at by the end of the week.

 

This is the GOES-East CONUS image from the Gulf of Mexico. If you look just below the Yucatan Peninsula and between that and Cuba, you can see the unorganized system that has the potential to become a hurricane next week.