Day 2 of a Multi-Day Potential for Severe Weather for Wednesday

[nWo]

Multiple rounds of storms, some of which could be strong to severe, will be possible in the Tuesday through early Thursday AM timeframe. Straight-line wind damage, hail, and tornadoes will be possible with severe thunderstorms. Confidence in the timing of these waves isn't particularly high, but the most impactful one will likely affect us Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. 

 

The CSU-MLP map indicates that Wednesday appears to be the greatest day for significant storm activity. There is a 45–60% risk of storms over most of Kentucky. Between Paducah and Louisville, there is a 60–70% chance of severe thunderstorms in this area of Kentucky. In Eastern Kentucky, the likelihood is 15–30%.

 

[nWo]

Eastern Kentucky should have been rated as having a 30-45% chance.

[nWo]

I really do not like what Wednesday's models are showing. Currently, there is a bigger risk than before. I fully expect sections of Kentucky to be designated as a Level 3 Enhance Risk Area if this pattern continues. The timing of the storms remains uncertain; however, there may be some discrete cell formation as well as an additional linear mode. Every severe weather scenario will be probable. We could expect dew points in the low to mid-70s. This could add fuel to the fire if tornadoes form. The period covered in the following maps is from Wednesday at 8 am to Thursday at 2 am.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

The threat level for severe weather has increased to level 3 Enhanced Risk, as I had predicted.

There is a chance of scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, extending from areas of the southern Plains into the Tennessee, Ohio, and mid-Mississippi Valleys. There should be all of the extreme risks, such as tornadoes, enormous hail, and strong or destructive winds. There might be some powerful tornadoes.

Very big hail will be a worry with early supercells, and severe/damaging winds will probably become a bigger concern as intense convection moves east-southeastward during the afternoon and evening, even if convective evolution is still somewhat unknown. Throughout the day, a moderate to strong low-level jet is expected to move eastward across the mid-MS and OH Valleys, supporting increased low-level shear, particularly close to the warm front. In this ideal shear environment, supercells will raise the risk of tornadoes. Because of the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic conditions, some of these tornadoes may be strong until at least Wednesday night.

 

 

[TheDeuce]

Those dew points in the low to mid 70's is not good. 

[nWo]

9 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Those dew points in the low to mid 70's is not good. 

I know, and the threat level may be raised again. If the modeling guidance continues to show it is needed.

[TheDeuce]

Similar to a few weeks ago, we need storms Wednesday morning to destabilize the atmosphere. 

If we don’t get storms early in the day on Wednesday, we could have a problem on our hands. 

[nWo]

7 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

Similar to a few weeks ago, we need storms Wednesday morning to destabilize the atmosphere. 

If we don’t get storms early in the day on Wednesday, we could have a problem on our hands. 

The very latest is showing even if we get morning storms, we could still have a problem.

[nWo]

From sections of the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are likely on Wednesday. There should be all of the severe risks, such as tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. There may be strong tornadoes among them.

The northern extension of the more severe probabilities has been somewhat reduced in this area, based on the most recent guidance trends that indicate the warm front stalling or not moving as much northward into the Ohio Valley. If not, very large hail is likely, with the first clusters developing along the warm and cold fronts. This could happen across Missouri as early as mid-morning on Wednesday. By early Wednesday afternoon, more supercell development may also happen along or near the warm front, spanning portions of the mid-MS Valley and into the lower OH Valley. With enough 0–1 km shear to sustain low-level updraft rotation, there is also a risk of tornadoes with this warm-frontal activity in addition to the very large hail hazard. Considering the prediction, several of these tornadoes may be strong.

An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds is also apparent through the late afternoon, and likely continues into at least the early evening, as convection should attempt to grow upscale into one or more intense bowing clusters. With that said, convective evolution is somewhat uncertain, and attempting to pinpoint areas of greater severe wind potential remains difficult.

Given this forecast, the Storm Prediction Center now has almost the entire state of Kentucky under a level 3 Enhance Risk Area. For now the greatest tornado threat is west of I-75 and south of I-64. Remember, though that any severe weather mode will be possible in a level 3 area.