The RPI indicates this will be a close game. What are your thoughts or predictions?

FD by a ton! RPI is useless if they think this should be close!

IMHO

Frank

I meant to get this in when I started the topic:

I'm all but certain that the South Laurel Cardinals will be in for a real awaking when they travel to Lexington tomorrow to play the Frederick Douglass Broncos. My point is to highlight how inaccurate the RPI rankings can be while also saying that I'm a guy who puts a lot of confidence in statistics when properly applied. The RPI has South Laurel as the favorite to win with an RPI of 0.59894 and Douglass an RPI of 0.57704. South Laurel has scored 28 goals and given up 19 goals while going 6-2-0 on the season, 2-0-0 in the 13th region and 2-0-0 in their district. Douglass has scored 33 goals and allowed 13 with a 7-4-0 season record, 2-2-0 11th region record and 1-1-0 district record.  Of the 13 goal that Douglass has allowed, 4 were  given up against Lafayette at Lafayette last week and 2 were given up against Bethlehem in Bardstown. Other important points is that both games were played after the injury bug bit the Broncos at the Smoky Mountain Cup in Gatlinburg which has left them without the services of 2 starters, one who was very important to their defense and one a good offensive player. I do not know how long they may be out.  Younger players are stepping up and the team is adjusting.  Douglass' first game back from Gatlinburg was  Layfayatte while their second game this past Wednesday was against Bethleham where they kept a very good Bethleham offense in check for 79 minutes allowing 2 goals in a span of 60 seconds early in the second half which were scored by Carlie Thurmond. The Broncos shut down  Bethleham and a very good Carlie Thurmond for the remainder of the game. Like I said they are adjusting and I'll simply say after applying statistics a little differently that Douglass should win easily.

At the half the score is Douglass 5 and South Laurel 0. Scoring was Nash at 37:05, Merry weather at 34:47, Rowe at 21:37 at which time Douglass did wholesale substitutions. The subs played with South until the rested starters were put back in at 5:00 minutes remaining in the first half. Douglass' 4th score came at the 1:41 mark in the first half with a second goal by Merryweather assisted by Williams. The 5th and final score of the first half was by Williams at the 59 second mark.

Douglass' 6th goal of the game was H. Flynn assist Williams at 39:06 remaining in the game.

7th score of the game goes to South Laurel and was by Gill at 32:40 remaining in the game.

Score:

Douglass 6 South Laurel 1.

This game was decided early.

Final score:

Douglass 6 South Laurel 1

On 9/8/2023 at 6:20 PM, FrankNicodemus said:

FD by a ton! RPI is useless if they think this should be close!

IMHO

Frank

You are completely correct, not only did the RPI indicate it would be a close game but it favored a South Laurel win. Like I said, I am a statistics guy but the larger the pool of teams the less accurate an RPI will be. I will admit that the deeper into a season you get the more confidence you can put into what it's trying to measure.