1. Warren Central (27-1)
High Rank - 1, Low Rank - 1, Average Rank - 1

2. Bowling Green (23-7)
High Rank - 2, Low Rank - 2, Average Rank - 2

3. South Warren (21-6)
High Rank - 3, Low Rank - 5, Average Rank - 3

4. Franklin-Simpson (16-9)
High Rank - 3, Low Rank - 5, Average Rank - 4

5. Warren East (18-9)
High Rank - 3, Low Rank - 7, Average Rank - 5

6. Clinton County (15-13)
High Rank - 6, Low Rank - 11, Average Rank - 10

7. Barren County (19-11)
High Rank - 5, Low Rank - 9, Average Rank - 6

8. Todd County Central (17-11)
High Rank - 7, Low Rank - 9, Average Rank - 7

9. Metcalfe County (11-18)
High Rank - 6, Low Rank - 10, Average Rank - 9

10. Greenwood (9-21)
High Rank - 9, Low Rank - 13, Average Rank - 11

11. Monroe County (17-13)
High Rank - 5, Low Rank - 11, Average Rank - 8

12. Russellville (7-20)
High Rank - 9, Low Rank - 16, Average Rank - 12

13. Glasgow (10-17)
High Rank - 12, Low Rank - 15, Average Rank - 13

14. Cumberland County (12-18)
High Rank - 11, Low Rank - 16, Average Rank - 15

15. Russell County (10-20)
High Rank - 12, Low Rank - 15, Average Rank - 14

16. Allen County-Scottsville (7-19)
High Rank - 13, Low Rank - 17, Average Rank - 16

17. Logan County (9-21)
High Rank - 15, Low Rank - 17, Average Rank - 17

18. Foundation Christian Academy (6-18)
High Rank - 18, Low Rank - 18, Average Rank - 18

13th District (at Todd County Central)

With the exception of Russellville's upset of Franklin-Simpson on February 1st, the district played out pretty much as expected.  Franklin-Simpson opened the year as the favorite for the district, and they backed that up, going 5-1 in district play, with the sole loss coming in a game where the team shot less than 40% from the field and even hit only 53.8% of their free throws.  That 55-44 loss briefly gave the impression the district might be shaken up, but Franklin-Simpson asserted themselves two days later in a 12 point win over Russellville and Todd County Central did the rest in clinching the top spot for Franklin.  Todd County Central was #2 in the preseason district ranks, and swept Russellville and Logan County to grab the #2 slot, dropping a tight 46-45 game to Franklin-Simpson in January before falling to them by 12 in late January.  Russellville got the one win over Franklin and swept Logan County, as expected.  That sets up a pair of district semifinal matchups between teams that are looking for three game sweeps over their opponent.  #1 Franklin-Simpson will be a huge favorite over a Logan County squad they have beaten eight times in a row, including by 24 and 27 this season.  The Wildcats are led by 2nd Team All-Region selection Jalen Briscoe and his 17 PPG, with a pair of other scorers in DeMarcus Hogan (15.0 PPG) and Gabe Jones (10.4 PPG).  The Wildcats have won four of six coming into the postseason, losing by a single point to South Warren on free throws with less than a second remaining, and then by three at Warren East several days ago.  Aside from a loss to Warren Central, Franklin has been very competitive in the region, even pushing Bowling Green to the limit on the road in January.  In terms of dark horse candidates outside the 14th District to make a serious run, Franklin is right there for the top choice.  Logan County is just 3-14 in region play, with two of those wins coming over Foundation Christian Academy, and the other a 12 point win over Cumberland County in December.  It would be a massive upset for the Cougars to get the win here, and they have not topped 37 points in either of their previous games against Franklin.  The other matchup figures to be much more competitive.  #2 Todd County Central is led by 2nd Team All-Region selection Jamison Glass (18.3 PPG, 9.3 RPG), who averaged 15 PPG in their two matchups against Russellville.  The Rebels held a huge lead over #3 Russellville in their first matchup at Russellville, lost it, but managed to gain the advantage back in overtime and lock in their district matchup together.  This matchup will be in Elkton, site of their second game, where Todd County Central won by a healthier 12 point margin.  The home court advantage will be one strong factor in Todd Central's favor - the other is a Russellville team coming in with zero momentum.  That surprising win over Franklin-Simpson is their last win to date - they fell in their final seven contests, failing to top 56 in regulation in any of them.  The Rebels will have the best player on the floor, home court, and momentum.  Expect chalk to hold in each of these games.

Predictions
Semifinal - Franklin-Simpson 66 Logan County 40
Semifinal - Todd County Central 61 Russellville 52
Final - Franklin-Simpson 56 Todd County Central 50

14th District (at Greenwood)

Just like last year, the top three teams in the region all reside inside the 14th District.  Warren Central, Bowling Green, and South Warren combined to go 19-1 against the rest of the region, with South's 42-41 loss at Warren East - in their first year outside the 14th District - the only setback for the three.  Unlike last year, there was no splitting of games between the teams, albeit barely in some cases.  Warren Central grabbed their first undefeated regular season in district play since the 2013/14 season, narrowly edging Bowing Green in overtime in their second meeting, winning 75-67 in their only region game to be decided by single digits.  Bowling Green enters as the #2 seed, sweeping both South Warren and Greenwood, with the Purples hanging on for dear life in a 55-50 road win at South Warren in early January.  South Warren earned the #3 seed by virtue of a two game sweep of Greenwood, though they had to survive a strong challenge in their road meeting, winning that game 60-57.  The pecking order was clearly defined, and Warren Central remains the solid favorite.  The Dragons enter postseason play 27-1 and on an 18 game win streak.  They have not lost a game that wasn't on a neutral court, and have been ranked #1 in almost every major poll for the entire year.  Their average margin of victory (23.6 PPG) leads the entire state.  Their 74.8 PPG scoring average is tops in the region by over 10 PPG, their 51.14 PPG allowed is 1.5 PPG lower than the next best.  The entire starting five for the Dragons made the all-region team and head coach William Unseld won coach of the year for the region.  By any metric, the Dragons are a strong favorite and considered the frontrunner to win the entire state tournament.  Chappelle Whitney (16.5 PPG) was named POY by the coaches and athletic directors, Kade Unseld (16.5 PPG) joined him on the first team, with Omari Glover (11.0 PPG) coming in on the second team, followed by Marr Walkup (12.2 PPG) and Isaiah Villafuerte (9.7 PPG) on the third team.  One of the only potential weaknesses for Central is that they don't go very deep in their rotation, with only seven typically playing.  But there may not be a better starting five in the state.  They'll open their run at tournament host Greenwood, who they defeated by margins of 46 and 32 during the season.  Greenwood was the last region team to beat them, winning at home in double overtime in January of 2022.  The Gators have had struggles with keeping their team healthy during the year, but enter the postseason as a high point.  Their last seven games - all their games since their last loss to Warren Central, have seen a marked improvement in their play.  They went 3-4 in those games, but the losses were by a combined 9 points to the #3, #5, #6, and #7 teams in the region.  They are still extremely unlikely to pull the upset here, but they have definitely closed strong.  Meanwhile the other semifinal may be the most intriguing in the entire region.  2 seed Bowling Green notched their tenth consecutive season with 20+ wins, and they enter the postseason having made the region finals for nine years in a row.  They face a South Warren squad that they've never lost to - they're 31-0 against them - and who has also never advanced to the region tournament.  Bowling Green had multiple selections to the all-region team with MJ Wardlow (17.0 PPG) a first team selection, with Mason Ritter (12.1 PPG, 10.2 PPG) a second-team choice.  Most things on paper point to Bowling Green as a solid favorite, though they did stumble to the finish line against tough competition, losing to BGP ranked Evangel Christian and Trinity in a pair of games this last week.  The Purples were outscored 102-61 in their final six quarters of the season.  We'll see how they respond against a hungry South Warren team.  Speaking of the Spartans, they notched their first 20 win season in school history, climbing to 21-6 under first year head coach Carlos Quarles.  The Spartans had one all-region selection, senior guard Brandon Rowe (14.3 PPG) made the second team.  South Warren closed strong, winning their final seven games.  That would match the longest winning streak in team history if not for the 11 game win streak this edition of South Warren had earlier this year - it does match the longest win streak they've ever had going into the postseason.  South's defense allowed the 4th fewest points per game in the region, but they must find a way to score better against Bowling Green than they did in their first two matchups, where they averaged a mere 43 PPG.  It seems a lot to ask of the Spartans that they win their first game ever against Bowling Green at the same time they win their first district semifinal ever, but that is what it is going to take for them to reach the goals for the team.  They're capable, but in all likelihood, this still isn't the year....

Predictions
Not Pictured - Foundation Christian Academy (Maybe someday they'll actually play in district)
Semifinal - Warren Central 72 Greenwood 48
Semifinal - Bowling Green 49 South Warren 41
Final - Warren Central 62 Bowling Green 54

15th District (at Warren East)

The 15th District got a makeover this year, with Monroe County shipping out to the 16th District and Warren East moving in from the 14th.  One thing that did not change, is that Barren County enters the postseason as the #1 seed.  Warren East started the season as the favorite in the district, but Barren County immediately announced their presence, going on the road and winning their fourth consecutive game against Warren East by a 72-63 score, allowing Isaiah Andrews to get his (30 points) but by and large holding the rest of the East offense down.  While they lost the return engagement with the Raiders, they swept Glasgow and Allen County-Scottsville by a combined 69 points, and East's December stumble against the Scotties allowed Barren County to claim the district's top spot outright at 5-1.  They were led in that win over East by the same player who led them this season - Eli Brooks.  Brooks had 26 in that win, and posted a dominating 20.9 PPG, earning a first team selection on the All-Region squad.  Brooks is a reliable wing with good size (6'7"), and hits 53.4% of his shots.  His running mate is Aiden Miller (13.9 PPG), who while shorter plays more like a post than his counterpart.  His 54.3% field goal percentage leads the team.  Barren enters the playoffs as losers of three of their last five after a stretch that saw them win nine of ten, but it's all but impossible to see them losing to this Allen County-Scottsville edition.  The Patriots are suffering through another rough year, and have lost 29 of their previous 38 games.  They do have a three game win streak going, but two of those wins were over hapless Foundation Christian Academy and Logan County, the two lowest ranked teams in the region.  ACS has the lowest scoring average in the region (just over 49 PPG), and didn't score more than 43 points in their first two meetings.  The other matchup contains all the real intrigue.  Warren East was immediately rewarded in their move with a much easier path out of districts, and homecourt advantage in the district tournament to boot.  The Raiders have not won a district semifinal since 1997, a year they advanced all the way to the state semifinals.  Their path has been stonewalled year after year by the likes of Bowling Green and Warren Central, but now they don't have that hanging over them.  They did find themselves with the slightly harder path when they dropped their first two district games of the year, with their 11 point OT loss to Glasgow ultimately costing them a chance at the #1 seed and what would have been an extremely likely advancement.  Instead they'll face the same Glasgow team that beat them, but there's tons of reason for optimism.  The Raiders won the most recent matchup by 20 points, hosting Glasgow on February 1st.  In addition to homecourt, they'll have the best player on the floor.  First team All-Region selection Isaiah Andrews is one of the top scorers in the region, averaging 23.7 PPG this year for the Raiders, the only one in double figures.  That does mean if you can stop Andrews you tend to stop the Raiders, but that is certainly easier said than done. Andrews shoots over 51% from the field and over 40% from three.  When they last matched up with Glasgow, Andrews dropped in thirty.  The Raiders have already won more district games this year than they did the final four years they competed in the 14th District combined, and have just their second winning record in district play since the 96/97 season.  Their 18 wins are the highest since the 2012/13 season, and tied for the second most the program has had since 96/97.  It's all there in front of them, and everyone's eyes will be on their game on February 22nd - no one else in the region plays on that night.  Looking to play the role of spoiler will be Glasgow.  The Scotties have had few high points this year, and the Warren East win was definitely the highest.  Glasgow entered that game winless, but won the game by simply scorching the nets and working the boards.  The Scotties shot 67% that game including a perfect 3 for 3 from behind the arc.  They were led by John Carter Walbert's 20 points, with Clay Pippen (17) and Javon Clark (13) also in double figures.  They were almost even on the boards (losing 37-36 on rebounds), but that was enough to get it done in overtime.  But there in lies the issue - they won in overtime shooting 67%.  That's a hard target to match.  And that game was at home, as opposed to the 20 point drubbing they took at East three weeks ago.  The Scotties do come in having won four of their last seven games.  They will have to find some way to slow Andrews if they want to win this one, but perhaps more importantly, just make sure no one else beats them. 

Predictions
Semifinal - Barren County 64 Allen County-Scottsville 37
Semifinal - Warren East 62 Glasgow 44
Final - Warren East 59 Barren County 54

16th District (at Metcalfe County)

As I made clear in my recaps as the year went on, no district was more fun to follow than the 16th District.  Monroe County moved over from the 15th District, giving the 16th five teams for the first time since 1985.  Unlike the 14th District's years with five teams this past decade+, the 16th District was truly wide, wide, WIDE open this season.  The #5 seed Russell County beat the top seed Metcalfe County in one of their regular season matchups.  #4 seed Cumberland County won games against both #2 Monroe County and #5 Russell County, and took both Metcalfe County and Clinton County to overtime.  Monroe County started district play 5-0 but could not get the win they needed over Metcalfe County or Clinton County that would have gotten them the #1 seed, allowing Metcalfe County to slip in and force a tie, winning the top spot on a tiebreaker.  13 games between the teams in this district were decided in over time and/or by six points or less.  No seed truly has a safe path - it's chaos.  It is glorious.  #1 Metcalfe County has had an uneven year and comes into the postseason on a five game losing streak.  Their last win was over Cumberland County in a game they came back to force overtime, and then outscored the Panthers 12-0 in the extra session to win.  That was the conclusion of a stretch that saw them win five of seven games, nearly half their wins on the season.  It's not good momentum coming in, but they have the advantage of the district tournament being played on their home floor, the luxury of playing a team that had played the previous day in either Cumberland County or Russell County, and they have the only two players in the district to make the all-region team, Jax Allen (21.1 PPG), and Wyatt Blythe (16.3 PPG).  Both players are seniors, who will provide strong leadership for a team looking to return to the region tournament after a stunning upset last year against one of their potential opponents - Cumberland County.  It is the Panthers that would probably give Metcalfe County greater pause.  In addition to that overtime game, Metcalfe County won by a tight 60-58 score in December.  In fact, despite winning six of seven from Cumberland County, all but one of those games was decided by single digits or in overtime.  It's not the comfortable feeling you usually get from being the #1 seed.  In addition to the confidence of having played Metcalfe County so closely, Cumberland County has the experience of having won that elimination game last year, and their run to the All "A" this year, when they won their first All "A" region title in history.  They haven't been nearly as good since that run, but did snap a four game losing streak with a 65-60 win over Campbellsville on the 16th.  Cumberland County is the 7th highest scoring team in the region, but they do struggle with stopping teams from time to time.  They split their meetings with Russell County this year, but that is somewhat deceptive as their first matchup was a road game at the Lakers as the third game in three days for Cumberland County, who had been riding the high of their win over Monroe County in the All "A" the night before.  They did win only by three at home three days later, but it does feel rather clear cut that the Panthers are favored here.  The Panthers are very balanced in scoring, with only Zachery Harwood in double figures with 11.8 PPG.  Their opponent Russell County has managed ten wins on the year, but went 2-8 in their final ten games of the year, but also entering off a victory, winning 73-64 over Rockcastle County on Friday.  The Lakers have the second worst scoring defense among teams participating in the region's postseason, allowing over 70 points on ten occasions this year.  They have a much narrower scoring tree, with four players averaging over 10 PPG, but no one else over 5.5.  Owen Loy leads the team with 13.4 PPG, with Mayes Gosser (12.9 PPG), Trace Stringer (10.4 PPG), and Braydon Cerrato (10.1 PPG) the others scoring in double figures.  Their loss to Cumberland County is a bit of a microcosm of their season - they shot 54.3% but gave up 68 points and therefore lost.  Should they manage to win, they split with Metcalfe County this year, but the most recent meeting came at Metcalfe County on February 1st - a 78-58 Hornet victory.  The Lakers haven't won at Metcalfe County since 2020, and seem unlikely to break through here.  The other semifinal matches #2 Monroe County and #3 Clinton County.  Monroe County asked for this, to be moved to the 16th District, but after failing to hold the #1 seed, put themselves in a tougher spot to return to the region tournament for the first time since 2018.  They did win two of three matchups with Clinton County this year, but both of their wins came at home.  Those two wins are the first Monroe had over Clinton County since the 2017/2018 season, and they haven't won against Clinton County away from home since 2014/2015.  These are two teams that play home and home games, so that encompasses a lot of chances the Falcons had.  Contrast that with Clinton County which has made 11 straight region tournaments - they're very used to playing in and winning these types of matchups.  Monroe County's play down the stretch is a recurring theme for the teams in this district - a lot of losses but a win in their last game.  Unlike the others, Monroe caught a real bona fide team - snapping a four game losing streak by defeating Warren East by 12.  It is likely the best win that Monroe County had all year, a strong building block.  It was a season high for points too, as they scored 84 in the victory.  Monroe County is in the top 13 of the region for all scoring metrics - #6 in PPG, #6 in PPG allowed, #6 in scoring margin.  They have two players who score in double figures, John Harlin (14.5 PPG) and Austen Arnett (11.5 PPG).  The Falcons aren't very deep, with 6-7 players usually seeing time.  Their three matchups with Clinton County this year were decided by a combined 11 points, and their All "A" meeting went to double overtime, won on a shot at the buzzer.  Clinton County is the antithesis of almost the entire district - it can easily be argued that they have played their best basketball of the year in the last month.  Their record is modest at 15-13, but they won six of their last nine games, which included the win over Monroe County.  The Bulldogs have been a bit more succeptible to giving up points this year.  They've long been known for their slower paced games and holding teams to low scores, and while 58 PPG allowed isn't the highest in the state by any means, it is an uptick from usual.  But they've dialed it in a bit in this last stretch.  Only Pulaski County and South Warren scored more than 61 points in the last nine games.  The Bulldogs have four players who score in double figures - they usually only play six total.  So they're balanced, but not deep at all.  Cannon Young (13.4 PPG) leads the team, with Steele Burchett (13.3 PPG), Cohen Davis (12.6 PPG), and Braden Stockton (10.7 PPG) the others in double figures.  Clinton County attempts just over 27% of their shots from behind the arc, so they are not a team that is going to bury you from three either.  That also means if they fall behind by a decent amount, they may have some trouble coming back.  It's been a long time since Clinton County has gotten knocked out in a district semifinal, so you can also bet they'll be ferocious in their fight.

Predictions
Quarterfinal - Cumberland County 59 Russell County 53
Semifinal - Metcalfe County 65 Cumberland County 60
Semifinal - Clinton County 60 Monroe County 58
Final - Clinton County 54 Metcalfe County 51

Per KHSAA scoreboard Franklin Simpson defeats Logan County 56-40 and Metcalfe County defeats Cumberland County 62-50. The Wildcats and the Hornets are the first 2 teams to punch their tickets to the 4th region tournament.  5 more teams will be in the field after tonight. 

 

#1 Warren Central vs #4 Greenwood (6:00 pm @ Greenwood High School) 14th District 

#1 Barren County vs #4 Allen County (6:00 pm @ Warren East High School) 15th District 

#2 Bowling Green vs #3 South Warren (7:30 pm @ Greenwood High School) 14th District 

#2 Todd County Central #3 Russellville (7:30 pm @ Todd County Central High School) 13th District 

#2 Monroe County vs #3 Clinton County (7:30 pm @ Metcalfe County High School) 16th District 

3-0 so far, though that Metcalfe/Cumberland County matchup was really the only one I was sweating.

All is still pretty chalky in the 4th Region.  Per KHSAA scoreboard from last night's action:

Todd County Central 63 Russellville 41.

Warren Central 76 Greenwood 45

Bowling Green 65 South Warren 50

Barren County 58 Allen County 33

Monroe County 65 Clinton County 54

 

A couple stats of note that I stole from @DragonFiretwitter handle.  Bowling Green improves their record over South Warren to 32-0 and the Spartans are still yet to make a regional tournament.  Last night's results also guarantee that either Bowling Green or Warren Central will win the 14th district tournament for the 27th consecutive season. 

I knew the 16th District would probably trip me up.  I felt Clinton County was riding higher at end of the regular season, so made my prediction for them, but it seemed to me Monroe County had control most of the night over the Bulldogs.  7-2 predicting so far, counting the "loss" of Clinton County as winner of the 16th. 

1 hour ago, Purple_Reign said:

All is still pretty chalky in the 4th Region.  Per KHSAA scoreboard from last night's action:

Todd County Central 63 Russellville 41.

Warren Central 76 Greenwood 45

Bowling Green 65 South Warren 50

Barren County 58 Allen County 33

Monroe County 65 Clinton County 54

 

A couple stats of note that I stole from @DragonFiretwitter handle.  Bowling Green improves their record over South Warren to 32-0 and the Spartans are still yet to make a regional tournament.  Last night's results also guarantee that either Bowling Green or Warren Central will win the 14th district tournament for the 27th consecutive season. 

Bowling Green's three longest winning streaks over a single opponent in school history (well, back to 1929, so close enough) are currently active.  They've beaten Grayson County 24 straight times - their last matchup coming in January last season - they haven't fallen to Grayson County since 1986.  South Warren is #2 at 32 in a row, and of course never losing to them unless you count the original South Warren that played in the 1940s.  And finally there's Warren East, who they've beaten 56 times in a row, a number so staggering that my eyes glaze over a bit every time I look at it.  They last lost to the Raiders in 1998, and this will be the first season ever for Warren East that they don't play each other if they don't find each other in the region tournament. 

In the case of South Warren, only ten of the 32 matchups have been decided by single digits.  This year felt like there was a chance for the Spartans, but they got absolutely dominated by Mason Ritter, who dropped 26 points on them.

The combined district streak by Bowling Green and Warren Central is staggering.  Twice during that span someone else from the 14th District won the region (Warren East in 1997 and Greenwood in 2008), but you have to go back to the last of Greenwood's three straight district titles in 1996 to find the last time Bowling Green or Warren Central didn't hold the trophy.  I'm a proponent of seeding, but it seems highly likely that fueled this change, as seeding started in 1999.  No one other than those two teams has ever won a seeded 14th District tournament - not even in 1987 when they seeded for that year only (Warren Central upset top seed Franklin-Simpson).  In the ten years during this streak that one of the other teams in the district at least made the finals (I.e. it wasn't Bowling Green vs. Warren Central in the finals), the average margin of victory was 18.1 points, with only three games in single digits.  How many more years will this continue? I would guess an almost certainty of several more years, because I do not think Bowling Green will be taken down by anyone in the district for at least the next 2-3.

The last district semifinal comes by way of the 15th district as #2 Warren East takes on #3 Glasgow at Warren East High School.  Tip set for 6:00 pm.  The Raiders are looking to advance to the 4th region tournament for the first time since 1997.  

The Warren East Raiders pulled off the big win last night taking down Glasgow 53-51.  All district tournament championship games are now set for tomorrow night:

 

Franklin Simpson vs. Todd County Central (7:00 pm @ Todd County Central) - 13th District

Warren Central vs. Bowling Green (6:00 pm @ Greenwood) - 14th District 

Barren County vs. Warren East (6:00 pm @ Warren East) - 15th District 

Metcalfe County vs. Monroe County (7:00 pm @ Metcalfe County) - 16th District 

Warren East of course in for first time since 1997.  Last time they were in a region tournament with the rest of the field:

1997 - Barren County, Metcalfe County, Warren Central
1994 - Monroe County
1992 - Franklin-Simpson, Todd County Central
1988 - Bowling Green