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1st call for Snow 1/6/22


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The confidence is increasing that most if not all of Kentucky will receive accumulating snow on Thursday. There's still a little difference in the models. Plus they will jog the storm a little further south on one run. Then a little further north on the next run. It is still a very good bet that just about everyone will get snow. First, let's look at the Euro. It has the low passing just to the south of Kentucky before it heads towards the east coast. It has the heaviest snow band from just north of the Kentucky/Tennessee border down to the middle of Tennessee. Before I forget the period covered by all three models is 1 pm/12 central EST Thursday afternoon to 1 am/12 am central EST Friday.

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Now the GFS. It is starting to get a better read on the storm. It is coming in with a narrower snowfield than the Euro and NAM. It is coming in with heavy snow also but nothing for those along and near the Ohio River.

 

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The NAM is coming in with the heaviest possible snowfall. The difference between it and the other two it has the entire state getting heavy snow.

 

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Now let's look at what each model is showing for possible accumulations

 

EURO

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The GFS74610214_snku_acc.us_state_ky_tn(1).thumb.png.9d2ba55baaf68903b9f0a63bfafd3c17.png

 

The NAM

 

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So here is my first call for snow accumulations. 

 

1-3" Alone the Ohio River

3-5" through a large section in the middle of Kentucky

5-7" for a small section of southern and southeastern Kentucky.

 

A couple of things to note. These will more than likely change tomorrow as we'll be 24 hours away from the event. Also, the exact track from is still uncertain. If the storm takes a more northerly track these totals will go up. If it takes a more southerly track the totals will most likely come down. I expect at least a Winter Storm Watch to be issued sometime tomorrow.

I will update in the morning.

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Just a quick update. I'll post my second call later today. Both the GFS and NAM have to snow starting a little earlier than Than yesterday's runs in Western Kentucky. One change in the GFS. It has the low-pressure system that will bring accumulating to Kentucky on Thursday taking a much more southerly route. If this holds then the snow accumulations will be more on the light side. 

GFS(Global Forecast Model)

 

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The NAM(North American Mesoscale Forecast System)

The NAM has the snow starting earlier also in western Kentucky. But it has the low traveling through Tennessee. If the low takes this track it will bring heavy snow amounts for almost the entire state of Kentucky.  

 

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Everyone should prepare as they see fit.

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This will be a very quick update during my lunchtime here at work. The models are coming into pretty good agreement. I'm waiting until this afternoon runs before I make my second call but I might have to move the 5-7" line more north and westerly. The NWS-Louisville is having a conference call at around 2:45 pm EST this afternoon about the storm. I will post the information as quickly as I can. They'll send out the information right before the call so those on the call can ask questions. I think this call is significant because these usually don't take place unless a significant weather event is about the happen. 

Those in the orange area on the following Winter Storm Severity map should be preparing for a disruption in their area to the normal routine for a day or so. Wouldn't surprise me at all that at least Winter Weather Advisories start going up for the rest of Kentucky later today.

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