December 29, 20214 yr I'm starting a new thread for the possible severe weather event for this coming Saturday. This is the second NAM run that I've seen that is showing the and it is causing me to have some concern for Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. I have to say that as of now the setup is starting to look close to what happened on December 10-11. Now let me say this I'm not saying this will be the same but the setup is close. We could have the same conditions but not the same outcome. I hate to say it but it is setting up for portions of Kentucky west of I-65. My main concern will once again be western and southcentral Kentucky. The period I will be discussing with this update is from 1 pm/12 central Saturday afternoon to 1 am/12 central. First, let's look at the setup. A low-pressure system will move northeastward along the Ohio River. The counter-clockwise spin will cause moist air to move into Kentucky ahead of a cold front. Dewpoints could reach upwards to the mid 60's. Now the following couple of maps is what has caused the most concern for me. First is the Vertical Velocity map. It shows the lift in the atmosphere. Everyone can see it increases as the storms move eastward across western and central Kentucky. You can see the dark purples and blues. This means the spin on a vertical axis causes a change in wind direction or wind speed with height is increasing as the system traverse across Kentucky. Next is the Significant Tornado Parameter Map. It shows the possibility of EF-2 or above tornadoes. Everyone can see that the darker blues increases also. The following is the NAM Radar for the same period. I may be jumping the gun on this but I'm not liking what I've seen on the last two NAM runs. So I will be watching this very closely as we get closer.
December 30, 20214 yr Author I forgot about the temperature map. It shows the temps increasing from the high 60s to low 70s. Look at the temperature difference from the cold air mass behind the cold front!
December 30, 20214 yr Author I just wanted to give a quick update during my lunch break. If the latest data holds I fully expect the Storm Prediction Center to expand the Slight Risk Area for Saturday. This system is growing and could affect those not only in western and southcentral Kentucky but a large portion of Kentucky. Even those in Louisville and the Cincinnati/NKY area and other points south and east of these areas. Everyone should pay attention to this possible severe weather event. I hope things change but for now it's not looking like it. I will post a full detailed forecast later this evening.
December 30, 20214 yr Author Thursday evening update: As expected there is some difference from the last NAM model run to now. As we are still a couple of days away. We are still looking at a possible significant severe weather event for New Year's Day. The Storm Prediction Center has most of the southern part of Kentucky in a category 2 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms. Most of the rest of Kentucky is under a category 1 Marginal Risk Area. Things are still looking favorable for strong storms that could produce damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes which a couple could be strong. After the morning storms clear out Saturday morning temperatures will reach the mid-60s for most of Kentucky. Those in southern Kentucky could see temps rise to the low 70s. The skies will be mostly cloudy but some could see some breaks in the clouds. The areas that see the breaks could become more unstable and help any possible storm be stronger. One change from yesterday is that the best chance for storms will be in western Kentucky but the threat looks to move up along the Ohio River into southern Indiana and southwestern Ohio. The EHI and the other severe weather models show this. The timing, for now, is from 1 pm/12 central Saturday afternoon to 7 am/6 central Sunday. I will more than likely go into Severe Weather Alert Day tomorrow morning and have it last until Sunday Morning.
December 31, 20214 yr 1 hour ago, nWo said: Thursday evening update: As expected there is some difference from the last NAM model run to now. As we are still a couple of days away. We are still looking at a possible significant severe weather event for New Year's Day. The Storm Prediction Center has most of the southern part of Kentucky in a category 2 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms. Most of the rest of Kentucky is under a category 1 Marginal Risk Area. Things are still looking favorable for strong storms that could produce damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes which a couple could be strong. After the morning storms clear out Saturday morning temperatures will reach the mid-60s for most of Kentucky. Those in southern Kentucky could see temps rise to the low 70s. The skies will be mostly cloudy but some could see some breaks in the clouds. The areas that see the breaks could become more unstable and help any possible storm be stronger. One change from yesterday is that the best chance for storms will be in western Kentucky but the threat looks to move up along the Ohio River into southern Indiana and southwestern Ohio. The EHI and the other severe weather models show this. The timing, for now, is from 1 pm/12 central Saturday afternoon to 7 am/6 central Sunday. I will more than likely go into Severe Weather Alert Day tomorrow morning and have it last until Sunday Morning. Any system moving up or almost parallel to the Ohio River Valley out of the South always seems likely. Just based on my observations anyways.
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