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I just received this email from the National Weather Service-Louisville office. I will look over the models after I get off work and post an update. 

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Good Afternoon Folks,

In light of the recent historic tornado event, we did want to make you aware of some chances for storms moving into the region this week and weekend.  At this point, it looks like any isolated storms this week should be sub-severe across central Kentucky, but as we get into New Year's Day, there's an outside shot at some severe weather over southern Kentucky. We want to message here that we are NOT looking at a repeat of that historic event with these storms on Saturday.  

Please pass that information onto the people you communicate with, as there are a lot of frightened Kentuckians out there.  Always keep track of the forecast through trusted local sources, such as NWS Louisville and your local TV media.  As with any information on the internet and social media, know where your information is coming from before you trust it completely!

One last thing...another threat to watch for will be the chances for flooding, especially as we get to this weekend for areas that see multiple rounds of heavier rainfall through the week.  

We will send out updates as needed this week.

NWS Louisville

 

 

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The possible severe weather is depending on a surface low tracking along the Ohio River. The Storm Prediction Center has a 15 percent contour with the greatest confidence for thunderstorm coverage in an unstable and strongly sheared environment. Some of the cities in the possible area are Hopkinsville, Bowling Green, Russellville, Scottsville, and Glasgow.

day6prob.gif.1020427933f88b549200eb9e57e68ac6.gif

 

This shows the possible conditions for strong to severe storm development on Saturday. For now, it is not real strong.

 

floop-gfs-2021122718.ehi03.us_ov.thumb.gif.174cf81d5eeb30880757a9844b26fdb1.gif

 

I will be updating as we get closer to Saturday.

floop-gfs-2021122718.prateptype_cat.us_ov.gif

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This morning's update will be brief. 

 

 

All guidance shows conditions could be favorable to foster an environment favorable for all severe weather types. The greatest uncertainties are related to the northward extent of the risk and the surface low track. Given the widespread convection, The track and intensity of this surface-low will have some impact on the storm evolution and intensity, especially as it relates to storm mode and the tornado threat. The Storm Prediction has continued the 15% area for possible storm development. One thing I  neglected to mention yesterday is that it is very rare for the Storm Prediction Center to issue a 15% area six days out. Also, the area has been expanded to include almost all of the Kentucky/Tennessee border area. This situation will bear watching. 

 

day6prob.gif.a288c79478f7706846a6e455868e41bb.gif

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Wednesday morning update: I just received this email from the National Weather Service-Louisville.

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Good Morning,

This Evening's Threat

There will be another round of showers and storms expected across the region later this evening into the overnight. A few of the storms along the KY/TN border could be strong with gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall being the main threats. A few minor flooding concerns could arise with any repeated storms. See graphic 1 attached.

New Year's Eve/Day Threat

The bigger concern will be the late New Year's Eve into New Year's Day threat of heavy rainfall, and perhaps a severe weather threat. Waves of precipitation are expected to ride along a stalled frontal boundary, where 1 to 3 inches of rainfall could occur through late Saturday. We will have a bit of a dry period ahead of this round of rain, but amounts toward the higher end of the range would likely lead to some flooding concerns. In addition, there could be a severe weather threat Friday night into early Saturday, although confidence remains low in that potential for now. The main threats would be damaging winds or an isolated tornado if the threat does materialize.

We'll keep you updated over the coming days as confidence/details evolve.

NWS Louisville, KY

 

graphic2.thumb.jpg.b0fb9125cf50cb92409ae9b2a0617968.jpg

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3 hours ago, DragonFire said:

Let’s just hope that slight risk doesn’t come to anything. Talk about areas that cannot take anything else…

I hope you are right. I was just looking at the NAM model because Saturday is just now coming into range of it. The NAM only goes out to 90 hours into the future. I'm not liking what it is showing. I want to see a couple of more runs before I post an update.

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