9th Region Preview

[The Double Deuce]

Well, we are finally here, the 9th Region Boys' Soccer Tournament commences on Tuesday at 4 sites around Northern KY.  The prize, a trip to the 10th Region Winner (likely Montgomery County) and then hopefully a trip to Henry Clay for the Quarters, the Semis, and ultimately, the State Championship Game!  Without further ado....

*  Beechwood at Dixie, Tuesday the 12th, 7:00 PM.  Beechwood enters as 35th Runner-Up, losing a hard fought game to CovCath where the Tigers didn't muster much offense, but remained stingy and tough defensively.  Dixie enters as 34th Champion, and therefore hosting this game, but coming off a closer than expected game vs St. Henry that was delayed by lightning.  Both teams are stout in the pipes, both have really solid back lines and good skill up the flanks, but both have struggled this year to score against equal or better competition.  In 18 games (13-3-2), Dixie has 50 goals for and 23 against (half of their goals coming in 4 games).  Beechwood (10-10-1) has 34 for and 46 against (17 of their goals against in the first 4 games).  Dixie beat Beechwood in the regular season 3-0, and while I think the winner is the same, I think it is even closer this time around.  Prediction:  Dixie 2, Beechwood 0.

*  NewCath at Ryle, Tuesday the 12th, 7:00 PM.  NewCath enters as 36th Runner-Up, a two-team district, losing a one-sided affair to Highlands.  Ryle, the 33rd Champions, enters off a win over Cooper that wasn't as competitive as I'd have hoped it would have been.  In spite of Ryle's forfeit losses, and their impacted Maher Rankings because of it, they remain a Top 5 team in KY, and haven't been beaten on the pitch all year, against a VERY tough schedule.  Ryle enters with an adjusted record of 12-5-2 after the 5 forfeit losses due to using an ineligible player, and an adjusted goals for and against of 44 and 13.  Make no mistake, those numbers do not tell the story of the Raiders.  NewCath (9-11-1) have struggled to find their footing against quality competition this year, and while they have identical 51 for and 51 against goal numbers, they have gaudy wins and losses depending on the opposing side.  This game will be whatever Coach Collins and the Raiders want it to be, and with no head-to-head match-up this year, I think Ryle puts their foot on the gas hard in the first half to jump-start what they hope is a deep run.  Prediction:  Ryle 5, NewCath 0.

*  St. Henry at CovCath, Tuesday the 12th, 7:00 PM.  St. Henry enters as 34th District Runner-Up, losing a much closer-than-expected 0-1 Championship game to Dixie.  CovCath enters as 35th Champions, and thus hosting here, blanking Holmes and Beechwood in the District Tourney.  CovCath, in spite of a brutally tough schedule, has still never fully found their footing as the season has unfolded, they have a couple of very good wins, a couple of head-scratching defeats (the margin more than the result), and a slew of ties.  They are tough to score against, but haven't had consistent goal scoring, and haven't fielded the eleven they thought they'd field more than a handful of times (and won't again the rest of the year).  Their midfield has been a work in progress, and it is there I think they are knocked off moving forward...but not in this game.  St. Henry has a few high quality players, Jayson LItzler is terrific, Matthew Resing has great size and athleticism and is dangerous, and Cam Montgomery is maybe the most under-rated player in the region, but beyond those 3, the Cru are at a talent and depth disadvantage in this one.  CovCath enters 8-8-5 against that schedule that was probably too much for this version of the Colonels, with 47 goals for and 34 against.  St. Henry, against a more typical NKY schedule, enters 7-12-0 with 34 for and 51 against.  They played this year at St. Henry and the Colonels got their first win of the season that night, 3-1.  I don't think this one is quite that close.  Prediction:  CovCath 4, St. Henry 0.

*  Cooper at Highlands, Tuesday the 12th, 7:00 PM.  WOW!  This could have easily been a semi-final game, and if the draw had fallen differently, would have been worthy of a 9th Region Finals.  Unfortunately, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the 9th have to play in the opening round after a Saturday afternoon draw that left neither the Jags nor the Birds very happy.  Some really funny, yet frustrated, texts were flying around on Saturday as both sides bemoaned the fact that this is their opening game while the other 3 should be more one-sided.  Highlands has GREAT play up top with Pieper, Gesenhues is one of the Region's best, and they have terrific depth.  Cooper has great players in the back, including their outstanding GK, Mason Pemberton, but they have consistently struggled to find their way scoring goals, but some late season line-up shuffling has led to better results lately.  Cooper played Ryle in the 33rd District Championship, and if they are going to earn a 3rd date with the Raiders, they have to be a lot better in this game than they were against Ryle on Thursday.  Highlands has been a little inconsistent, with some really odd results (both up and down), so you have to wonder if they're able to get up and play together each game, and now that it is win-or-go-home, that inconsistency has to leave those in the Fort a little nervous.  Without question, both of these teams are capable of pushing Ryle to the brink, and both of them could be capable of a couple of wins in the State Tournament, but one of them will go home at about 9:00 PM on Tuesday.  Highlands enters 17-4-1 against a very solid schedule, with 72 for and 28 against.  Cooper comes into this one 13-5-3, with 46 for and 23 against.  Highlands won the head-to-head match-up 2-1 in Union.  This one, thankfully for the Birds, is back in the friendly confines of Tower Park.  Certainly the best game of this opening round, and a shame that all of NKY can't be there to watch this one unfold.  Prediction:  Highlands 2, Cooper 1. 

*1st Semi-Final:  Dixie vs Ryle, October 14th, 5:00 PM, at St. Henry.  I know I've talked all year about the long grass, and the narrow pitch, at St. Henry, but believe me, Coach Collins is awfully happy not to have CovCath, Cooper, or Highlands as the opponent on this pitch for the semis.  Ryle is MUCH better on a full-width pitch, or closer to it, and this narrow field will certainly help Dixie clog things up and slow down the Raiders.  Ryle has so many options up top and in the middle, they are creative, have great size, and terrific team speed.  Dixie has an ascending leader in the pipes, Braden Blackburn, and a solid back 4, but they just don't have the horses to keep up with Ryle when on the attack.  At the other end, Landon Barth is the area's best GK, Ryle's back line is the best (or, 2nd best) in the area, and Dixie just doesn't have enough weapons up top to threaten the Raider defense consistently.  Surprisingly, these two did not meet in the regular season.  Even on the narrow pitch, Ryle has too much, and while Dixie plays so hard and so together, they ultimately won't create enough chances to score with the Raiders, and they won't be able to hold down Ryle forever.  Prediction:  Ryle 4, Dixie 0.

*  2nd Semi-Final:  CovCath vs Highlands, October 14th, 7:30 PM, at St. Henry.  The Jeremy Robertson Classic (yes, I hear the same rumors everyone else hears about Jeremy's former, and maybe future, club vs his current one).  These two classic rivals, regardless of the sport, met at CovCath on September 7th and the Birds prevailed 1-0.  I don't know what SHDHS holds in that stadium, but I know they could fill it 3x for this one if they had the space.  This isn't an historically great Colonel team, but they play hard, play tough, and make things very hard to score against.  However, Highlands is nearly as good defensively, and much better offensively, and that ultimately will be the difference.  I think the game is a draw at halftime, 0-0, but Highlands gets one soon after the break, CovCath gets out-of-whack trying to get a desperate equalizer, and Highlands ends up pocketing one more at that point.  The large CovCath senior class won't go down easy, but their run does end here, in the semis, against the hated Birds.  Highlands is probably favored by the long grass, they have more skill and, I think, a little less team speed in the back vs CovCath's attackers, but either way, I think the Birds prevail and move on for the game we all wanted in the Finals.  Prediction:  Highlands 2, CovCath 0.  

*  9th Region Final:  Highlands vs Ryle, Saturday, October 16th, 4:00, at Boone County. The top two teams in the 9th from Soccerama up until now (where they met, by the way, in what turns out to be a 9th Region Final preview), meet with it all on the line in Florence.  No one will be happier the final is here and not at SHDHS than the Raiders, except maybe the neutrals that will all be able to turn out and watch what should be a classic Region Final.  Highlands won that game at Soccerama, although neither team was nearly itself, especially with the KHA Red 05 Boys just having returned from their National Championship, plus Ryle's super midfielder, Cole Marsh, sitting up in the Brossart bleachers awaiting word on his transfer paperwork from Boone.  If not for the issue with a different Boone Co transfer and the subsequent forfeited games, Ryle would have no losses on their record heading into the Region Final with Highlands.  I expect the crowd in Florence for this late-afternoon classic to be monstrous, in spite of the early forecast being rain and temps around 60.  The winner of this game will have a great chance to go to the 10th Region Champion and get a win, and certainly will be well-equipped and well-tested enough to try and make some noise down at Henry Clay in the quarters and beyond.  All those in attendance, wearing royal blue or black and orange, should be in for a fantastic high school soccer game and a worthy regional final.  Prediction:  Ryle 3, Highlands 1.

Enjoy the games this week, let's see how close (or NOT close) I turn out to be, and I hope all of the seniors from the 8 teams leave their last game (except for one of the 8 who will be moving on) with their heads-high, and proud of the work they put in all year.  I also pray that no one is injured throughout the tourney.  I may have a result wrong along the way, and certainly will have some scores wrong, but I do believe when all is said and done that the Ryle Raiders will win the 9th and represent the region in the State Tournament.

Thanks for following along all year, albeit quietly.  😁

 

[Voice of Reason]

Well done @The Double Deuce

For those who don't follow soccer closely, why is St. Henry's field not full size? That field is purely a soccer field. For the quality of teams they have and the soccer focus (no football), I would expect a very high quality soccer field there.

[The Double Deuce]

5 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Well done @The Double Deuce

For those who don't follow soccer closely, why is St. Henry's field not full size? 

There is a neighborhood just on the other side of the field, so a row of trees and then apartments, limit the space available.   I'm not a civil engineer, nor an architect, but they have a ton of room on the southeast side of their new Theater / Auditorium / Expansion, if the whole school building would have been built further SE, you'd have more room in that west side of the campus.