2021 Severe Weather Outlook (Supercharged?)

[nWo]

I've been reading what some of the experts are expecting this year. The year mentioned that this year could be like is 2011. There was a moderate La Nina that year similar to what we have this year. This has them worried about a possible repeat of that year. The past few months have seen the strongest La Nina signals since 2011. They are saying that the probability of the ingredients coming together for severe weather events is higher than normal. The tornado season of 2011 was the deadliest of modern times with over 550 deaths. Second only 1925's 794 deaths. Some may remember the super outbreak of April that year. April 27th was the Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornadoes. Then a few weeks later the Joplin, MO. tornado. Which was an EF-5 tornado. 

 

In Kentucky, we saw 24 tornadoes in three hours April 19-20,2011. The time they hit was between 11:22 pm and 2:30 am EDT. All but two of those tornadoes were north of I-64. All though the outbreak was at night when many were sleeping there wasn't a single injury. In June that was the Churchill Downs/Louisville tornadoes. Jefferson County saw four tornadoes, two of which attained EF-2. One of the EF-2's damaged apartments and horse barns at Churchill Downs and a large industrial building near U of L's football stadium. In February of 2011 was EF3- Eminence tornado. 

[nWo]

Here is how we covered those events. Some of the maps I uploaded are not working like they did back in 2011.

I couldn't find the Churchill Downs Tornado thread.

[nWo]

At the moment I'm watching the end of March and the first weekend of April for possible severe weather. From Kentucky down to Alabama. 

[TheDeuce]

In those 2011 storms in Louisville, I saw the lowering that would be one of the tornadoes that touched down in NE Jefferson County. On the same day, my girlfriend saw the Churchill Downs tornado. 
 

[TheDeuce]

This is a video someone took of the same storm I was “chasing” that day. The video starts on I-65 North (Male High School can be seen on the right), then onto I-264 East, ending on the off ramp to Newburgh Road. 
 

There is a little bit of language.

 

[nWo]

 

[nWo]

This map shows the total confirmed tornadoes for 2011. Every expert forecast that I've seen have predicted that this upcoming severe weather season could mirror 2011. I've looked at about 10 so far. They are also saying that the concentration of tornadoes around Mississippi and Alabama (circled) could shift northward towards Kentucky.

Many are saying people should start preparing for periods of possible long power outages. It still remains to be see if it will happen like they are predicting but I think it says something that everyone of them is predicating just about the same thing. As of now sections of Kentucky west of I-65 is in an area of moderate to extreme chance for severe weather outbreaks. East of I-65 is in an elevated chance. 

 

 

 

[TheDeuce]

“Tornado Alley” definitely seems to have shifted to Dixie Alley over the last decade or so.