District 1 Seeding

1. Logan County

2. Calloway County

3. Hopkinsville

4. Hopkins County Central

 

District 1 Storylines

- The Calloway County 14-7 upset of Hopkinsville in late September was one of the more stunning results of the season, and the rematch in the first round is possible the best game in 4A this weekend.  Many still consider Hopkinsville to be the best team in the west, but they’ll have to prove it on the road.

- Logan County’s record isn’t quite as gaudy as some of the past few years, but they managed to navigate to the top seed for the first time since 2017, going 3-0 in district play. The Cougars have never advanced past the second round.  This is clearly going to be one of their best chances to do so.

 

District 1 Prediction

Calloway County gave the toughest game against Logan County, dropping a 14-6 result at home. But a rematch would be on the road, and Calloway hasn’t won a game in a month.  Hopkinsville fell by 24 at Logan County in mid-October. Look for Hopkinsville to get to a rematch, but for the Cougars to break through to the region final round for the first time ever.

 

District 2 Seeding

1. Russell County

2. Allen County-Scottsville

3. Franklin-Simpson

4. Warren East

 

District 2 Storylines

- District 2 along with District 6 is the most competitive district top to bottom in 4A.  Russell County handled Warren East by a 37 point margin, but won against the other two playoff squads by a combined nine points. Warren East enters their matchup off their most impressive performance of the year, taking down Logan County on the road by 11 points. Unbeaten Russell County is seeking their first playoff win since 2013, which was also the last time they hosted a playoff game.

- Allen County-Scottsville hosts Franklin-Simpson in a postseason matchup for the first time ever, falling in their previous two postseason matchups on the road by a combined 76 points.  Their 21 point win at Franklin in September snapped a six game losing streak in the series. Franklin-Simpson has not lost a first round game since 2012, but this will be their first road game in the round since that year. They have never won a road first round game since the playoff system began to allow four teams per district in 1991.

 

District 2 Prediction

While Warren East and Franklin-Simpson should make it competitive, expect Russell County and Allen County-Scottsville to have a rematch of their crazy 20-18 matchup in mid-October, won by Russell County. The game had seven first half turnovers, and the Patriots failed to convert a tying two point conversion with no time on the clock. Rain neutralized their passing attack in the first matchup – in dry weather, expect Allen County-Scottsville to reverse the result in an upset.

 

District 3 Seeding

1. John Hardin

2. Spencer County

3. Moore

 

District 3 Storylines

- John Hardin is back on top of their district for the first time since 2016, an almost unfathomably long time for a team that used to feast on their district. This season resembled those old times, with all four of their wins on the year coming in-district by an average of 48 PPG.  Only Spencer County stayed within shouting distance. John Hardin will get a bye into the second round.

- Spencer County was the clear #2 in district play, winning by 23, 28, and 30 in their non-John Hardin matchups. The Bears pounded the ball on the ground in their 34-6 victory over Moore, rushing 48 times for 329 yards, as is their typical gameplan. Just two years removed from missing the postseason altogether, Spencer County should advance to the second round for the first time since 2016.

 

District 3 Prediction

Spencer County was competitive in the second half of their first matchup with John Hardin, winning the half 13-9 after falling behind 20-0 at the break. They’ll need to channel that second half effort to have a shot, but John Hardin should get back to the region final round for the first time in four years.

 

District 4 Seeding

1. Central

2. Franklin County

3. Shelby County

4. Waggener

 

District 4 Storylines

- Central will have had almost a full month off by the time they take on Waggener, but the Wildcats will have the exact same timeframe off.  The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 5-0, and have allowed only 26 points all season long.  Central has not lost before the state semifinals since 2015, and have never lost in the first two rounds under the six class system. 

- Franklin County barely missed out on the top seed in the district and an unbeaten regular season, falling 18-16 to Central when Malachi Williams scored on a three yard TD with 8.9 seconds left.  That was the only game of the regular season that Franklin County scored fewer than 36 points. Shelby County and Franklin County did not meet in the regular season, with the Rockets securing the third seed with a 27-20 overtime victory over Waggener. 

 

District 4 Prediction

It’ll be Central and Franklin County in a rematch of their classic regular season matchup.  Last year Franklin County got the regular season matchup, but Central flipped the script in the postseason. Why not see history repeat? Franklin County led by ten entering the fourth quarter this year before it slipped away. This time, they get the better of Central, sending Central home in the second round for the first time in 15 years.

 

District 5 Seeding

1. Boyle County

2. Lexington Catholic

 

District 5 Storylines

- Only Boyle County and Lexington Catholic will be competing in the postseason, both receiving a bye to a second round matchup.

- Boyle County has won 46 of their previous 48 games.  They have allowed only 42 points all season, an average of five per game.  Their season low score was 40, against second round opponent Lexington Catholic, who they shut out 40-0.  They’re pretty big favorites.

- Lexington Catholic’s final bow of the season must be mentioned.  They pulled a stunning 29-28 victory over Covington Catholic, snapping their 22 game winning streak and handing them their first regular season loss in four years.  It at least gives some hope heading into this daunting matchup.

 

District 5 Prediction

Come on.  There’s only one team in 4A that Boyle County has to truly fear.

 

District 6 Seeding

1. Holmes

2. Rowan County

3. Harrison County

4. Boyd County

 

District 6 Storylines

- Holmes was one of the few teams in the state to get their full nine games in, being relatively untouched by the madness until the exact wrong time, the postseason.  They’re currently in a quarantine, but should be able to take on Boyd County in the first round. Their first matchup was very competitive, a 26-15 Holmes win. The Bulldogs led Boyd just 20-15 entering the final quarter.  Boyd County has lost three in a row, but by a combined 13 points, with two of those losses coming by a single point.  Boyd County lost a three-way tiebreak to fall to this spot.  This is a 1/4 matchup to watch.

-Rowan County will host a playoff game for the first time in a decade when they meet Harrison County, which was also the last time they advanced past the first round. The Vikings won a tight 41-34 contest the first time around, going on the road to beat Harrison County.  Cole Wallace rushed for 209 yards in that game for Rowan County.  Harrison County had just shy of 300 yards of offense in that contest, and LaDarius Conner is averaging over 100 yards per game on the ground.

 

District 6 Prediction

Holmes seems to be the most talented team in the district, but were pushed in their games against each district postseason team. They’re the tentative prediction for the district winner, with Rowan County the dark horse.

 

District 7 Seeding

1. Corbin

2. Wayne County

3. Knox Central

4. Lincoln County

 

District 7 Storylines

- The district features three of the top ten teams in the state, and Knox Central at Wayne County is the only top ten matchup in the entire first round.  The game carries extra intrigue as the two teams were unable to meet in the regular season.  The road team won this matchup each of the last two seasons.  Wayne County is the higher rated team, but Knox Central had less trouble in district play.  Each team lost to Southwestern by a combined three points, but Wayne County wiped Harlan County out 42-0 while Knox Central eked out a 14-13 win.

- Braedon Sloan of Wayne County deserves mention on his own.  Sloan has averaged, averaged, 235.8 yards per game on the ground through six games played on the year, scoring 25 times on just 125 attempts.  Just incredible.

- Corbin suffered a 20-14 setback to Beechwood to open the year, but has not lost since.  Ironically, their district result against Lincoln County was easily their closest result of district play, winning only 14-8.  But it’s an illusion – Corbin is the clear favorite in this district.

 

District 7 Prediction

Corbin has a lot of advantages coming in, not the least of which is that they don’t have to face Wayne County or Knox Central right away.  Their first year in 4A ended in a 14 point loss to Wayne County after falling by two in the regular season.  And while they did not have to face Wayne County with Sloan during the regular season – winning 43-6 with Sloan on the sidelines – this year they reverse the result and get to the third round.

 

District 8 Seeding

1. Johnson Central

2. Letcher County Central

3. Perry County Central

4. Harlan County

 

District 8 Storylines

- Johnson Central has won - *checks notes* - A LOT over the past decade.  They’ve won 22 in a row coming into the postseason, and are 95-10 in the last eight seasons. They haven’t lost a postseason game at home since 2014, falling to Covington Catholic who no longer plays in the class.  The last time they lost to a Kentucky team at home was in 2016. They are not going to have to go on the road this postseason before the state finals.  They did not score less than 35 points in any game this year and only Belfry got within 30 points of them. 

-Letcher County Central is 5-1, with only Johnson Central knocking them off in the regular season.  They defeated first round opponent Perry County Central 28-7 on the road in September.  Winless just three years ago, they appear poised to advance to the second round for the first time since 2014.

 

District 8 Prediction

Johnson Central will be vaguely aware that they played two playoff games by the end of November.

Class 4A ended up being possibly the wildest class this year in the first round, and certainly produced the biggest upsets, with not one, but TWO 4 seeds prevailing over 1 seeds.

-In District 1, we got the title game we anticipated, even though Calloway County was the higher seeded team in their matchup with Hopkinsville.  Hopkinsville pulled the mild 3/2 upset 21-17, advancing to play Logan County, who rocked the Tigers 31-7 in the first game post COVID layoff for Hopkinsville in October.  Logan County is seeking their first region final appearance ever.

-District 2 produced the first ground shattering 4/1 upset on Friday night, as Warren East flipped a 49-12 loss in mid-September for a 33-14 victory. The Raiders led most of the way, despite trailing 7-6 at halftime. It's the first playoff victory in six years for East, and their first road playoff win EVER. They meet Allen County-Scottsville, who defeated Franklin-Simpson 50-28, their first postseason win over Franklin. That earned them their first home playoff game in the second round in a decade. AC/S beat East 27-25 in the first round last year. AC/S is looking for their first region final since 2010, while East's last was in 2012.

-District 3 had only one game this weekend, with Spencer County advancing easily, 48-6 over overmatched Moore.  That sets up the rematch with John Hardin, who won 29-13 in their matchup on October 30th.  That will actually be John Hardin's last contest heading into this matchup - having four full weeks off.  We'll see if there is any rust there.

-District 4 will give us THE matchup in the state this week.  Neither Central or Franklin County had any difficulty with their opponents, with Central winning 34-7 over Waggener (increasing on their 24-7 regular season victory), while Franklin County won 41-12 over Shelby County in what was their first matchup of the season.  That sets up a huge rematch, with the winner not only taking the district, but guaranteed a homefield game in the region final round.  Franklin County led that first matchup most of the way, but Central scored late to win 18-16.  Last year, Central lost the regular season but won the postseason game.

-District 5 had the week off ahead of Boyle County/Lexington Catholic.  This is a big matchup by rankings, but despite LexCath's big upset of Covington Catholic, Boyle County is a heavy, heavy favorite.

-District 6 had only one game, but whoa did it produce an unexpected result.  Holmes went unbeaten in district play, but they didn't exactly dominate in terms of the scores, and had the unease of a quarantine heading right into the postseason.  They ran right into a buzzsaw, with Boyd County scoring over and over, gaining not only the 4/1 upset, but a running clock en route to a 55-14 drubbing.  The insult to injury is that the 2 seed, Rowan County, didn't even have to play as their opponent withdrew.  Holmes did all they were supposed to in the regular season, and fate dealt them a bad hand.  Boyd County and Rowan County did not meet in the regular season due to a COVID cancellation, so there isn't a lot to go on in predicting this matchup.

-District 7 saw Corbin advance, as expected, having an easier time with Lincoln County this time, taking a 38-14 decision (in contrast to their 14-8 regular season win).  The real story was in the 3/2 "upset", with Knox Central knocking off Wayne County 46-36.  Wayne County had a 22-8 lead late in the first half, but created an untimed down thanks to an unsportsmanlike penalty.  Knox Central took advantage with a 28 yard touchdown pass, which kicked off a 38-6 run for the Panthers.  Wayne County couldn't recover.  Braedon Sloan's Mr. Football campaign ends with 192 yards on 28 rushes, scoring twice.  He had 1,607 yards in only seven games.  For Knox Central, Brady Worley had the same amount of touchdown passes as incomplete passes (four).  His 357 yards on 20/24 passing led Knox to the second round.  They fell 34-7 to Corbin in their first matchup.

-Neither District 8 game was remotely competitive.  Johnson Central opened with a 46-8 win over Harlan County while Letcher County Central blanked Perry County Central 39-0.  Sadly, you can expect the same in the second round matchup.  Johnson Central won 62-0 when these teams met last month, accounting for the majority of points that Letcher County Central has given up the entire year (62 of 106 total).

Regional Finals:

Allen County-Scottsville (RPI # 19) at Franklin County (RPI #7)

John Hardin (RPI #14) at Hopkinsville (RPI #12)

Rowan County (RPI #18) at Boyle County (RPI #1)

Corbin (RPI #3) at Johnson Central (RPI #2)

 

 

 

MATCHUPS

Allen County-Scottsville at Franklin County – There may not have been a more shocking result this weekend than Franklin County’s wipeout of Central.  Franklin County had led much of their first matchup, falling behind in the final ten seconds to lose to Central the first time, but no one saw a 42-6 running clock beatdown of Central coming. That was the most points allowed by Central in three years.  Nick Broyles was surgical in the matchup, throwing only one incompletion on 15/16 passing for 206 yards and four touchdowns.  Fred Farrier had seven receptions for 112 yards and two touchdowns.  Their first matchup against Central remains the only time they’ve scored less than 36 points, and they’ll enter this matchup heavily favored.

 

 

 

Allen County-Scottsville advanced to the third round for the first time since they went to the state title game in 2010.  The Patriots have lost only three games on the year, by a combined five points.  That narrow margin was probably the difference between a home playoff game in the regional round and what they got – a road game at by far the best team they’ve seen this year. The offensive approach for the two teams is diametrically opposed – Franklin County has thrown for more than double the yardage they’ve rushed for, and Allen County has run for just under double their passing yardage.  Allen County will have to try to play ball control to have a chance in this one, but Franklin County will be too much. 

PREDICTION: Franklin County 43 Allen County-Scottsville 7

John Hardin at Hopkinsville – RPI was really good to Hopkinsville.  In the old playoff setup, Hopkinsville, the lone surviving team in 4A seeded lower than 2 in their district and a team from an odd district and (what would have been) an odd region, could never have hosted a game in the third round or beyond.  They narrowly edged John Hardin in the RPI ratings (.55315 to .53701), earning homefield.  Hopkinsville avenged both of their losses from the regular season in the postseason, most recently beating Logan County by a 42-20 margin after losing to them by 24 in the regular season.  The Tigers jumped out early and never let up, scoring the first 14 of the game and leading 35-7 entering the final quarter.  They were outgained 371-285 in the game, but had a pivotal 92 yard pick six just a few minutes into the third quarter, giving them a 28-7 lead and essentially putting the game away.  The Tigers will have the game’s best player in Reece Jesse, who entered the Logan County game with 523 yards on just 22 receptions.  The Tigers are very balanced in rushing and passing, with Jayden Dillard’s 467 yards leading on the ground.

Meanwhile, John Hardin started the year 0-2, but has won five in a row with three shutouts in their last four games.  Their district final win over Spencer County was their first game in a month – also against Spencer County.  The result this time was much more definitive, winning 29-13 in the regular season but gaining a 41-0 running clock result in the playoffs.  This is the deepest run in the postseason for John Hardin since 2016, similar to the three year absence from the region finals for Hopkinsville.  John Hardin is a team you can be almost certain will keep the ball on the ground the entire game.  They have three backs – Isaiah Harris, Dominik Hodges, and Keyandre Strand – who have individual run for more yards on the season than the team has thrown for.  That runs right into a weakness for Hopkinsville, who have allowed almost 160 yards per game rushing.  Still, it is undeniable that Hopkinsville has played the tougher teams and tougher schedule.  The Tigers will feature easily the best offense that John Hardin has encountered. 

PREDICTION: Hopkinsville 27 John Hardin 14

Rowan County at Boyle County – The score looks close, but Boyle County led comfortably most of the game against Lexington Catholic.  They held a 42-17 lead late, but Lexington Catholic kept pushing and the Rebels had to recover an onside kick to seal their 49-41 victory over LexCath.  The 41 points they allowed almost doubled their total allowed on the entire season of 42 entering the game.  The offensive effort kept up – Boyle County has yet to score fewer than 40 in a game.

Meanwhile, Rowan County advanced to their deepest point in the playoffs since 1982 by taking down 4 seed Boyd County 18-6 in their district title game.  The Vikings feature a 1,000 yard rusher in Cole Wallace, and are a sure bet to try to establish their ground attack and control the clock in their upset bid here.  That’s going to be a problem – Boyle County has allowed fewer than 40 yards per game on the ground this season.  This game appears to be a total mismatch on paper.

 

PREDICTION: Boyle County 42 Rowan County 0

 

Corbin at Johnson Central – Which brings us to the marquee game of the round.  The top three teams in RPI are on the “east” side of the bracket, with massive consequences for Johnson Central and Corbin in particular.  Boyle County edged Johnson Central’s RPI by a scant .66888 to .66724 margin, earning them the easier region final matchup.  Johnson Central was a little further ahead of Corbin’s .64899 RPI, but it’s really a bad beat for both teams when you consider Hopkinsville is hosting a game in the west with an RPI of .55315.  But the loss by these two teams is potentially our gain.

Johnson Central swatted aside their District 8 foes like gnats with a combined 96-8 margin in their two games.  It’s even more dramatic when you consider that Letcher County Central went 6-2 on the year, with both losses coming to Johnson Central, by a combined 112-0 score.  They’re pretty, pretty, good folks.  The Golden Eagles average over 300 yards per game on the ground, with Dylan Preston rushing for over 1,200 yards this season and over 20 touchdowns.  This is nothing new for Johnson Central – they’ll run early, late, and often.  Their win streak now sits at 24 games in a row, and as mentioned previously, they haven’t lost at home in the postseason in six years. 

Corbin has done a good job of limiting teams on the ground, holding teams to just a little over 110 yards per game on the ground, though this will be the best team and rushing attack they’ve seen.  They like to keep it on the ground too, but employ more of a balanced approach.  Cameron Combs has thrown for over 1,000 yards and three different players have rushed for over 170 yards this year.  They were incredibly impressive in clearing a tough District 7, absolutely demolishing Knox Central by a 41-0 result.  That followed a 34-7 result in the regular season.  The Redhounds have definitely been in good form.  But it won’t be enough.

PREDICTION: Johnson Central 42 Corbin 14

 

I think that Corbin JC game will be closer than that I realize JC may very well be the second best team in the state but I think Corbin has been improving all year and they think they put up a fight and lose by 14 or less.