I'm issuing a BGP Severe Weather Alert Day for Wednesday evening. Also a Tornado Threat Index of 1. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of Kentucky west of I-75 in a category 3 Enhanced Risk Area while east of I-75 there is a category 2 Slight Risk Area.

 

 

 

 

Convection is forecast to initiate early this evening southwestward along the front across south-central Illinois, southeast Missouri, and northeast Arkansas. These thunderstorms may remain discrete( individual storms not connected with a line of storms), moving east-southeastward into the southern Ohio Valley. The environment should also be strongly sheared, favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominate storms. As the evening progresses on squall line formation appears likely. This squall line should be accompanied by numerous damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado threat. The soundings for western Kentucky is showing the possible strength of these possible tornadoes upward to EF-3.

 

 

Here are some simulations from the NAM 3km model. The time period covered is from 8 pm EDT tonight to 8 am EDT Thursday morning. You can see on the radar some discrete cell development in western Kentucky around the 9 pm CDT time slot. Of course, exactly where these possible supercells will develop can't be exactly pinpointed.

 

Radar

 

 

EHI

 

 

Supercells

 

 

Significant Tornadoes

 

 

I will be monitoring this situation throughout the day and post updates whenever possible.

Thank you.

Latest update from the Storm Prediction Center. It has expanded the category 3 Enhanced Risk Area to include almost the entire state of Kentucky. Also southern Indiana and the Cincinnati area. A very small section of northeastern and eastern Kentucky is in a category 2 Slight Risk Area.

 

 

Conditions along with moisture moving in from the Gulf coast to the lower Ohio Valley. A cold front will surge southeastward in the lower Ohio Valley. The overall scenario appears supportive of increasingly widespread convection from late afternoon across Missouri/Illinois to the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight, in an environment supportive of fairly widespread large hail and damaging winds. Like the initial convection farther north in IL, upscale growth into an extensive squall line appears likely this evening into tonight across Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley regions, with an increasing threat for fairly widespread damaging winds. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with the initial discrete cells.

Confidence in the corridor of greatest hail/wind threat is still a bit uncertain this morning, but an upgrade to higher probabilities/Moderate Risk is possible in later updates.

 

I will continue to monitor this throughout the day and will post updates whenever possible. Everyone should be going over their emergency plans now. The severe threat appears to be increasing.

This is the HRRR Radar it is refreshed every hour. So each sequential frame is 1 hour later than the first one. The time period is from 9 pm EDT to 4 am EDT Thursday morning. Don't let your guard down if you see scattered storms in your area early this evening. The real threat is coming later tonight into tomorrow morning.

 

Another severe weather watch may be issued soon.