A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located about 100 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean through early next week. Enhanced rainfall is possible across the Cabo Verde Islands through early Friday as the disturbance moves through the region.

 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

 

The system can be seen in the bottom right of this GOES image. Just off the coast of Africa.

 

Here is the next system that may affect parts of the U. S.

 

 

A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos and extending

northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds while the system moves very slowly west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and

across Florida by late Friday and continuing into the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located along a sharp surface trough from near eastern Cuba through the southeastern Bahamas into the southwestern Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend.

 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

 

The chances for the formation of a tropical system has increased. A trough of low pressure is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms that extend from the southeastern Bahamas northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although limited development of this system is anticipated today, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph across the Florida Straits and southern Florida, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

The 8 am NHC forecast shows #1 tightening up. Percentage of cyclone formation has increased to 70% in the next 48 hours and 80% in the next 5 days. Looks like the Bahamas will be getting soaked and blown, again, the next few days.

Satellite-derived winds and surface observations indicate that the disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed

circulation and that the winds are not strong at this time. However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions

are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest

at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be

needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and northwestern Bahamas, as well as Florida, should monitor the progress

of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas

through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

 

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. The system is expected to move toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is

forecast to continue during the next 2 days. On this track, the system is anticipated to move across the northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over the east coast of central Florida on Saturday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so.

 

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two.

 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

 

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for parts of the east coast of Florida.

 

 

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the poorly defined center of the disturbance was located by satellite and surface observations near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 74.9 West. The disturbance is moving

northwestward at about 3 mph (5 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forwarding speed through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or over the east coast of Florida on Saturday.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so.

 

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two.

 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

 

 

 

 

That high over the southeast pushed this thing eastward.

 

That high over the southeast pushed this thing eastward.

 

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There are two more behind this one to watch.

 

There are two more behind this one to watch.

 

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Oh, I am. However, they aren't going to affect the football game tomorrow. This one still may, but the chance of high wind is much less. Makes tailgating much better. Canopies tend not to like 30 mph winds, too much.

Much ado about nothing for the US mainland. However, the northwestern Bahama's are under assault, again.

 

There are two more behind this one to watch.

 

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The 2 disturbances out in the Atlantic kind of fizzled out.

 

Now we have all of these things.

 

 

#4 is the one I'm worried about. Those that appear in the Gulf are the ones that can turn into another Michael.