There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon for most of Kentucky west of I-75. East of I-75 most of Kentucky is in a Category 1 Marginal Risk Area for strong to severe storms. At the moment the main threats look to be damaging winds and hail. A tornado or two may also be possible. Timing looks to be for afternoon into the evening hours. I will update later today.

Any word on the timing of the severe threat? Planning on a trip to Keeneland. May have to make it another day.

Any word on the timing of the severe threat? Planning on a trip to Keeneland. May have to make it another day.

There looks to be some showers in the Lexington Area Sunday morning. The strong to severe storms may hold off till late afternoon early evening.

There looks to be some showers in the Lexington Area Sunday morning. The strong to severe storms may hold off till late afternoon early evening.

 

Thanks! Appreciate all you do.

 

The Category 2 Slight Risk Area has been expanded eastward past I-75 to around Mt. Sterling. A warm front will move northward into the Ohio Valley during the day. In the wake of early storms, pockets of heating and a moistening boundary layer should destabilize the atmosphere across portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Mixed storm modes including a few supercells, clusters and line segments are possible with damaging wind and hail the main threats, but with a tornado or two can't be ruled out, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Check back for updates as we get closer to Sunday.

Just wanted to update everyone on the possible severe weather on during the day on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center still has most of Kentucky in a Category 2 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms. This covers all of Kentucky from around the I-75 corridor back westward. East of I-75 the rest of Kentucky is in a Category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

 

 

 

Here is a reminder of what the categories mean.

 

 

It doesn't appear for now that this will be a widespread event. The strong to severe storms looked to be scattered in nature. Also, they seem to be confined mainly around the I-64 corridor. A word of caution. This is not exactly where the stronger storms will develop just what the models are showing now. The NAM 4km radar time period is from around 10 am to 8 pm EST.

 

 

The NAM for the same time period shows the rain field covering more of Kentucky.

 

 

The conditions are forecast to be favorable to support severe thunderstorm development. Multicells with wind damage potential and a supercell or two could develop during the mid to late afternoon. Supercells would also have an isolated tornado and hail threat. Update in the morning.

Really no change in my forecast. The possible strong to severe storms look to be scattered in nature. Mainly start from around I-65 then they look to move northeastward through Kentucky. I will be keeping an eye on the situation and post updates when possible.

 

 

 

The severe threat has lessened some. The only part of the state that is still in a Category 2 Slight Risk Area is in and around the Bowling Green area. There is still a chance for some scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon. Some of which could produce damaging winds and some hail.