Subtropical Storm Alberto

[nWo]

Those with interests around the Gulf of Mexico should start paying attention to the weather. There is a possibility of a system developing in the next few days.

 

[swamprat]

Thanks, nWo.

 

It's been raining pretty much constantly since Saturday. Typical Florida summer drive home from work, today. Hard rain. Sunshine. Hard Rain. Sunshine. Rinse and repeat. I only live 7 miles from work.

[nWo]

The chance of development is on the increase. Now it is between 40-60% in the 5-outlook.

 

 

 

This simulation is from the Canadian GDPS model. If this holds true Memorial Day will be a day to watch the weather.

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by nWo

[nWo]

Chances now up to 50% for possible cyclonic formation.

 

[nWo]

The chances for tropical development have increased to around 60% with the mornings NHC outlook. If a tropical storm develops its name will be Alberto. I will update later today.

 

[nWo]

Latest simulated radar from the Candian Model. The time is from 8 pm Saturday night to 2 pm Monday afternoon.

 

 

 

[nWo]

formation chance now up to 70%. Too early to tell if it will form into a tropical storm or hurricane.

 

[nWo]

The National Hurricane Center says there's still a 70% chance that a tropical depression will form within 5 days in the Gulf of Mexico. Whether it forms into one or not this system is forecasted to drop heavy rain totals in parts of Flordia and Georgia and Mississippi. This is contingent on where the system makes landfall. The exact track is still up in the air. The following is the 48-hour rainfall totals ending Monday night at 8 pm EDT.

 

 

 

The Canadian model has been showing this system for sometime. Here is the latest simulated radar.

 

 

The GFS is now onboard showing the system.

 

 

Remember we are still a few days away and the track will most likely change. So those with interests in these areas should pay attention to the subsequent updates. Take care and I'll update later today.

[nWo]

Chances now up to 90%. National Hurricane Center may send a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate this system on Friday. If they do then this system will become Invest90L.

 

[nWo]

This system as of this morning still has a 90% chance of forming into at least a tropical storm. The Canadian model has it strengthing to winds up to 40kts(46 mph). A system becomes a tropical storm when winds reach 34 to 63 knots. We are still a few days away so things could change. For now, landfall looks like it could occur Monday afternoon in the panhandle of Florida.

 

 

Some could receive upwards of 5+ inches of rain.

 

 

Updates later today.

[nWo]

This system is now named Subtropical Storm Alberto. Updates later.

[nWo]

 

 

 

[nWo]

Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum

amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and

southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect

the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on

Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves

northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with

maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto

from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western

Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3

to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches possible from the

southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast.

 

 

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the

Florida west coast on Sunday, and along the northern Gulf Coast

by Sunday night or early Monday.

 

 

Possible rainfall totals through Thursday Morning 8 am EDT.

 

 

[nWo]

I'm closing this thread because the situation is changing with Alberto. I've started a new one because the tropical storm watch has been upgraded to a warning.