I received the following in an email from the National Weather Service Office out of Louisville this morning. I will update on this later today.

 

Good morning,

The potential remains for wintry precipitation Sunday into Monday. Thinking has not changed much with this update except that we may have a bit later onset of precipitation Sunday early evening instead of Sunday afternoon. All winter precipitation modes (rain, freezing rain, snow, sleet) remain on the table for Sunday night into Monday morning before transitioning to all rain Monday. This could lead to some travel issues during this time. Confidence in precipitation type remains on the lower side at this time and the forecast will continue to be refined over the coming days.

I just received a text from the same NWS-Louisville about a conference call at 1:30 this afternoon. I will post an update as soon as possible afterwards.

Just a quick note from the briefing. Those mainly north of I-64 could be looking at snow and ice Sunday evening into the day on Monday before changing over to all rain. South of that people are looking at everything from snow, ice and rain. Along the Tennessee border some ice but mainly rain.

 

I'll post an update later today.

Just to let everyone know what may be in store for some late Sunday evening into the day on Monday. We could be looking at a mixed bag of winter precipitation. With the persistent very cold weather we have been having the ground is already very cold. Freezing rain looks to be the main concern as the precipitation moves through Kentucky before the temps rise above freezing on Monday. Little or no snow accumulations are expected at this time. Travel late Sunday into the morning hours on Monday could be problematic for some.

 

Here is the NAM simulated radar from late Sunday night into Monday afternoon.

 

 

This is the freezing rain accumulation map. An update will come in the morning unless information warrants it.

 

Saturday morning update.

 

The precipitation is expected to begin late Sunday evening as a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Sunday night into Monday morning a wintry mix could be ongoing in northern Kentucky. Parts of south-central Kentucky should transition to a cold rain as the temperature warms up above freezing. The precipitation should come to an end late Monday night until early Tuesday morning but some freezing rain may occur as it ends.

 

The greatest ice and snow accumulations look to be north of the Bluegrass Parkways. Remember we could see more snow than ice if colder temperatures occur.

 

Here are a couple of maps to show possible snow and ice accumulations from the NAM model as of this morning.

 

I'll update later today. Everyone can also follow our Twitter page for information throughout the day.

 

 

Saturday evening update.

 

My confidence is growing that we are looking for at a freezing rain than a snow event. The commute Monday morning could be a difficult one. As of this evening, any snow accumulations look to be light and mainly confined to above the I-64 corridor. The modeling data shows that freezing rain could fall across most of Kentucky Sunday night into Monday morning. High temps on Monday look to range from the mid-30s to the low to mid-40s.

 

Here are the latest modeling data. The Candian and NAM are pretty close. These maps are showing possible accumulations through Monday before the wintry precipitation turns over to a cold rain,

 

NAM Freezing rain accumulations

 

 

Snow Accumulations

 

 

The Canadian Model

 

Freezing rain

 

 

Snow

 

 

The GFS is showing a little more snow

 

Freezing Rain

 

 

Snow

 

 

 

We'll just have to wait and see which one is the closest. I fully expect Winter Weather Advisories to be issued by Sunday morning. I'll update in the morning.

As expected a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for parts of Kentucky. Some could see the whole range of wintry weather. It looks like possible snow accumulations will be north of I-64 where some could possibly see upwards of an inch of snow on the ground before the switch over to freezing rain. Those in the area with the possible snow accumulations can also expect around a .10 inch accumulation of freezing rain.

 

 

 

As of this morning, the areas that could receive the most freezing rain accumulation looks to be from around Madison County eastward to parts of eastern Kentucky. The area could receive .15-.20 inches of freezing rain before the change over to a cold rain on Monday. The timing looks to be after midnight ET and continue during the morning on Monday.

 

Here's a look at the NAM simulated radar.

 

 

Here's a chart to show everyone what they could expect from the freezing rain accumulations.

 

Here is the very latest modeling data. This looks more like a freezing rain event that a snow event. That's accumulation wise. The possible freezing rain accumulation totals have seemed to rise since this morning. For now, it looks like most if not all of any possible snow will be around the Ohio River northward. Parts of NKY may see a dusting to around 1/2 inch.

 

 

The freezing rain looks like it will reach the I-75 corridor around 4-5 am ET. It should be ending by around 10 am EDT. Once the temps rise above freezing the snow/freezing rain will change over to all rain. I need to caution everyone that because the air temps rise above freezing the ground temps will take a little while longer to get above freezing. I saw a report from the NWS said that the ground is frozen down to a depth of around 4.5 inches. So travel early on Monday will have its challenges.

 

Here are the latest freezing rain totals from the NAM.

 

 

Here is the latest radar simulation

 

 

I will update later this evening.

I’ve already mentally prepared for a snow day. Dangerous game for teachers.

I’ve already mentally prepared for a snow day. Dangerous game for teachers.

 

Early Monday morning update.

 

One good thing of note is that the freezing rain accumulation totals have come down a bit. Also, the snow seems to have moved further north as the maps below will show. I will try and give one more update before I have to leave for work. Even with the totals coming down the roads could become slippery and hazardous for the morning commute. Everyone, please be careful if you have to travel this morning.

 

 

 

Here are the very latest maps for today. I'm getting ready to head to work. Be safe driving this morning.

 

There's a system that looks like it may affect Kentucky this weekend. I'll post something about it later today.

 

 

Ice days just don’t have the same cool feel as snow days.

 

Be carful out there. I went out to walk the pup and almost busted my hump on the ice here in Louisville.