April 6, 201610 yr Are Bernies odds better than 20% of winning? Tough to tell. In states where Bernie has done well, he outperforms the polls and he moves the polls very quickly. The latest poll in NY has him down 10. For example, Wisconsin. Three days before the primary, 538 website had Clinton winning. Bernie's best poll in Wisconsin was him up 8 percent points. He finished up 13. But as of 3/20, two weeks prior, Bernie was losing in the polls. And Wisconsin is a fairly moderate example of the swings possible, in other states the swing has been even more dramatic. Again, in the states where he does well. In some states, this doesn't happen at all. Given the record of doing better than the polls suggest, and moving the needle quickly, and the time he has, I don't think anyone can say with any true confidence. I think he confounds the polls somewhat due to him getting so many young first time voters and independent voters (NY is a closed primary though). I think his chance is better than 20%, but I would not bet money on him winning. I hope he does.
April 6, 201610 yr Are Bernies odds better than 20% of winning? Today...no. If he wins New York that percentage shoots up.
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