January 1, 201610 yr •Now we come to the fun that is the race for the AFC South crown. The Texans could have clinched a strength of victory (SOV) tiebreaker over the Colts with a Bengals win on Monday night, but it was not to be. The AFC South champion will be the No. 4 seed and will host either the Chiefs, Jets or Broncos (in that likelihood order) on Wild Card Weekend. •If Houston loses and Indianapolis wins, they will tie on overall record, split head-to-head and tie on conference record (6-6 each) and record against common opponents (6-6 each). Next tiebreaker is strength of victory (SOV) or better described as the combined records of the teams you've beaten. In the case of the Texans and Colts, they have three teams each that are non-common wins between them ... the Texans have the Bengals, Jets and Saints (27 total wins now) and the Colts have the Broncos, Falcons and Dolphins (24 total wins). •With only three total games left for the Colts to catch the Texans for SOV and being behind three wins, you can see why the Bengals win on Monday Night would have clinched the tiebreaker for the Texans. So to try and get to a tie in SOV, Indy needs all games to go their way (Bengals, Jets and Saints losses (a Saints loss is also a Falcons win) and Broncos and Dolphins wins. But that just gets them to a tie in SOV and moves to next tiebreaker step which is Strength of Schedule (SOS). •The only non-common games between Houston and Indy are Houston's games against Kansas City and Cincinnati (21 total wins) and Indy's games against Denver and Pittsburgh (20 total wins). AND ... since the Bengals loss and Broncos win are already needed to gain the SOV tie, that puts the SOS tiebreaker in a 21 total wins tie with the only outcomes left to help the Colts being a Chiefs loss and a Steelers win. If both happen and Kansas City loses and Pittsburgh wins, Indy would win the SOS tiebreaker and complete a monumental tiebreaker comeback. They could also win with one of those games tying and the other result ending in the Colts favor. •If none of those two results happen or if one game ties and they other result doesn't happen, Houston would clinch the SOS tiebreaker and win the division. •HOWEVER, if only one of a Kansas City loss or a Pittsburgh win occur, we have an SOS tie and the NEXT TIEBREAKER is best combined ranking among AFC teams in total points scored and total points allowed. Currently, Houston leads at 17 (11th in points scored and tied for 6th in points allowed) and Indianapolis is at 25 (12th in points scored and 13th in points allowed). Due to the nature of relatively unlimited points scored in games, clinching scenarios to lock this tiebreaker up are quite convoluted but let's just say the Colts have an uphill battle in this scenario, but it's not impossible. •If best combined conference ranking were to tie, it moves to best combined league ranking in points scored and points allowed and the Texans currently enjoy a fairly comfortable 35 to 51 edge there over the Colts. •BOTTOM LINE: Colts have an incredible challenge in front of them to win the AFC South...and the Texans just need one of the Colts many challenges to go their way to win the crown. It should be fun to watch (unless you're a Texans fan) if some of these games start going the Colts way on Sunday.
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