Syria - the reason it's in conflict - natural gas pipeline?

[Bluegrasscard]

This turned out to be a much longer than normal post so I have listed it as an article. I hope those who have serious interest in understanding the apparent source of the 'Syrian conflict' will be able to read the excerpts and conclusions in an objective manner. For months I have wondered why there is so much focus on Syria by so many nations - beyond the 'ISIS issue'. This may provide a reason why Syria is now the hotbed of global conflict.

 

 

 

The scenario is this:

- There is lots of natural gas in the Middle East.

- Russia is almost the sole supplier of natural gas to Europe.

- Europe is very dependent on Russia but does not want to be. So Europe wants the pipelines directly from from ME and reducing Russian influence in Europe. Russia wants neither pipeline built and pressured Assad for years to not accept either projects - both go right through Syria.

- Two major pipelines projects have been in play - The Qatar/Turkey pipeline and Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline.

- Turkey strongly supports the Qatar pipeline as it will connect to existing Turkey pipelines. Turkey strongly objects to the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline as it will bypass Turkey and leverage Mediterranean pipeline or using Lebanon deep water ports for shipping. So Turkey does not want this option.

- Syria did sign up for the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline in 2011.

- 'Civil war' broke out two months later.

 

Links with background:

 

Armed Forces Journal (2014):

Pipeline politics in Syria

 

"In 2009, Qatar proposed to run a natural gas pipeline through Syria and Turkey to Europe. Instead, Assad forged a pact with Iraq and Iran to run a pipeline eastward, allowing those Shia-dominated countries access to the European natural gas market while denying access to Sunni Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The latter states, it appears, are now attempting to remove Assad so they can control Syria and run their own pipeline through Turkey."

 

Aljazeera op-ed from 2012:

 

Syria's Pipelineistan war - Al Jazeera EnglishMore than a year ago, a $10 billion Pipelineistan deal was clinched between Iran, Iraq and Syria for a natural gas pipeline to be built by 2016 from Iran's giant South Pars field, traversing Iraq and Syria, with a possible extension to Lebanon. Key export target market: Europe.

 

During the past 12 months, with Syria plunged into civil war, there was no pipeline talk. Up until now. The European Union's supreme paranoia is to become a hostage of Russia's Gazprom. The Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline would be essential to diversify Europe's energy supplies away from Russia.

 

 

It gets more complicated. Turkey happens to be Gazprom's second-largest customer. The whole Turkish energy security architecture depends on gas from Russia - and Iran. Turkey dreams of becoming the new China, configuring Anatolia as the ultimate Pipelineistan strategic crossroads for the export of Russian, Caspian-Central Asian, Iraqi and Iranian oil and gas to Europe.

 

Try to bypass Ankara (added note - Turkey capital) in this game, and you're in trouble. Until virtually yesterday, Ankara was advising Damascus to reform - and fast. Turkey did not want chaos in Syria. Now Turkey is feeding chaos in Syria. Let's examine one of the key possible reasons.

 

 

Emphasis added above.

 

CNBC article 2013 - on Russia and its interest related to Syria:

 

How Vladimir Putin and Russia Hope to Win Big?In Syria

 

The hardened positions of both sides leaves little hope for a negotiated settlement; and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has made it clear that only by an agreement among the Syrians will Russia accept the removal of Al-Assad. Neither do they see a settlement through a battlefield victory which leaves only a partitioning that will allow the civil war to just wind down as all sides are exhausted.

...

The Russians are troubled by what they see as a growing trend among the Western Powers to remove disapproved administrations in other sovereign countries and a program to isolate Russia.

...

Again, Russia is seeing Washington's hand in Syria in the conflict with Iran. The United States is directing military operations in Syria with Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia at a control center in Adana about 60 miles from the Syrian border, which is also home to the American air base in Incirlik. The Program by President Obama to have the CIA acquire heavy weapons at a facility in Benghazi to be sent to Turkey and onward to Syria is the newest challenge that Putin cannot allow to go unanswered. It was the involvement of Ambassador Chris Stevens in the arms trade that may have contributed to his murder; and the Russians are not hesitating to remind the United States and Europeans that their dealings with the various Moslem extremists is a very dangerous game.

 

Emphasis added above. And note - this is a 'mainstream' outlet.Wikis on pipelines:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq-Syria_pipelinehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar-Turkey_pipelineSo who wants what out of this conflict?

 

Russia

No new pipeline. This is done by keeping Assad in power and controlling him. The holding action after the 2011 agreement to go forward with the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline was to allow the civil war rage. But regime change and a western-allied leader, along with a stable Syria will allow the pipleline to go forward. The initial, limited civil war served Russia in two ways. It delayed the pipeline and drove Assad back to his only superpower ally. If Assad stays he certainly reverse the approval of the pipeline. Or he will drag it out for years or decades.

 

United States

Further diminishing of Russian influence by ensuring Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline is built. This is likely the primary reason to make peace with Iran since the IIS pipeline is approved by all the major parties. The US probably backed the 2011 agreement with Iran and Iraq that Assad entered into. This also is why the US had to settle things with Iran. All of this done to isolate Russian influence.

 

Turkey

Turkey was the Qatar-Turkey pipeline. Period. The Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline bypasses Turkey and completely unacceptable to Turkey. This explains why Turkey turned so harshly against Assad when he signed the agreement on the IIS pipoline in 2011.

 

Saudi Arabia

The Saudis want the Qatar-Turkey pipeline for two reasons. They are allied with Qatar and will financially benefit from it. They get no financial benefit from the current planned IIS pipeline. But they also do not want this to benefit Iran. Keeping Iran bottled up and keep Iran influence in the region is a key factor for the Saudis. So they want only the Qatar-Turkey pipeline.

 

Israel

Its hard to determine what they want in the end. Likely they want a diminished Iran. Hence why they and the Saudis are noted to be partnering up in various areas.

 

ISIS

ISIS seems to have benefited from all the power-struggles. They started as a US-trained anti-Assad group. But then went into Iraq and acquired their own arms - abandoned by the US in Iraq - and are now a fighting force of their own. Are they under control or influenced or helped by any of the above powers or are they truly independent ? Hard to say. But they now get all the press - and keep the media from focusing on the pipeline issue.

 

Over the last few months I have posted that:

- Russia will not allow Assad to go down (but was not sure why)

- The US and Russia were in a proxy war in Syria (but did not know why)

- Benghazi was related to Turkey and Syria (but did not know why)

 

It seems this entire episode is driven at its core by old-fashioned cold-war tactics with new twists. Certainly the mainstream media is not focusing on the underlying reason Syria such a linchpin and why it has been the focus of so many regional and global powers. ISIS provides better headlines it seems.

[PepRock01]

I feel like I just read an excerpt from a Tom Clancy novel.

[Habib]

It's interesting.

 

But, as the catalyst and driver of the conflicts there requires a proclivity for the conspiratorial, which is why I assume "civil war" is in scare quotes and ISIS is dismissed as a media front.

 

First, if Russia's overarching concern is with this pipeline through Syria, then why did Russia only now get involved and not earlier when Assad's power could have been more easily preserved? Second, if Assad is unable to reclaim sovereignty over Syria, the likelihood of a stable government to replace it (which would be needed for such a pipeline; who would rely on a pipeline running through a failed state?) is nearly nonexistent.

 

Russia's intervention doesn't seem to benefit them in this regard: Assad signed the agreement for the pipeline, the US wanted the pipeline but supports the rebels against Assad, Russia opposes the pipeline but are going to fight to keep Assad in power, and the only way a pipeline will work is with stability in Syria yet only Assad provides any hope in that regard. Everything is backwards.

 

There's undoubtedly a Cold War-esque proxy war going on between Russia and the West now, but I think it's just that. I don't think there's an underlying conspiracy about a pipeline we are being duped into ignoring.

[Bluegrasscard]

It's interesting.

 

But, as the catalyst and driver of the conflicts there requires a proclivity for the conspiratorial, which is why I assume "civil war" is in scare quotes and ISIS is dismissed as a media front.

 

First, if Russia's overarching concern is with this pipeline through Syria, then why did Russia only now get involved and not earlier when Assad's power could have been more easily preserved? Second, if Assad is unable to reclaim sovereignty over Syria, the likelihood of a stable government to replace it (which would be needed for such a pipeline; who would rely on a pipeline running through a failed state?) is nearly nonexistent.

 

Russia's intervention doesn't seem to benefit them in this regard: Assad signed the agreement for the pipeline, the US wanted the pipeline but supports the rebels against Assad, Russia opposes the pipeline but are going to fight to keep Assad in power, and the only way a pipeline will work is with stability in Syria yet only Assad provides any hope in that regard. Everything is backwards.

 

There's undoubtedly a Cold War-esque proxy war going on between Russia and the West now, but I think it's just that. I don't think there's an underlying conspiracy about a pipeline we are being duped into ignoring.

 

If the root issue is the root issue is it still the root issue of its ignored in the media? It should not be the nightly news element. And at this point ISIS is now a real problem - not the JV team - thus deserving of air-time.

 

The conficliting interests here need a matrix to keep track of. And it probably would need to be 3D to be complete.

 

The usual CIA enemy of my enemy does not work so well with all the conflicting objectives by so many countries. At the end of the day - no pipeline, no "civil war". Ruthless dictators can take care of a real civil war that has no outside help.

 

 

Another very good link from 2014 with the background fairlw well packaged:

 

https://iakal.wordpress.com/2014/11/02/the-crisis-in-the-american-turkish-relations-and-the-creation-of-an-independent-kurdistan/

[Habib]

At the end of the day - no pipeline, no "civil war". Ruthless dictators can take care of a real civil war that has no outside help.

 

I don't agree at all with that. Plenty of dictators have been toppled by their own people (off the top of my head: the Shah, the Tsar, Ceausescu, Amin, various coups in Latin America, etc.; and to include the Arab Spring: Ben Ali, Mubarak, and save for intervention Qadaffi would likely be in a similar place as Assad). And that the revolution has descended into a civil war suggests that Assad has had enough muscle to stay in power.

 

There's plenty of geopolitical wrangling going on here, but the Syrian civil war is easily explained in the context of the Arab Spring and Assad's response to the protests (Assad beckoned the protesters to arm themselves so he could justify killing them, half of his army turned against him, arms were prevalent through the desertion of his bases and the Iraq war next door, etc.).

[NKY Bandit]

Sounds like a plot twist from The Blacklist. Those guys in the Cabal are really bad.