April 1, 201511 yr As expected last night, I'm going to go ahead and go into a Severe Weather Threat Mode. This means that we have to potential of seeing severe weather in the near future. It looks this maybe a multi day event. On Thursday the possible severe thunderstorms look to be centered around WKY and then along the Ohio River. As of now damaging winds and hail look to be the main threat. I thing we have a chance of seeing an isolated tornado or two. The severe weather threat grows for Friday. This is the day of most concern for me. The areas of the state that will have to best chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms are from around the I-75 corridor back to the west. Once again damaging winds and hail are the main threats. Also a tornado or two can't be ruled out. I'm a bit concerned especially for WKY. I think this is the area where we may see the best chance for a tornado or two. This is why I'm a little concerned for WKY on Friday afternoon. This map the EHI from the NAM weather model shows where the shear and rotation in the atmosphere is strong enough to tornado formation. A value of 1-2 is a typical thunderstorm. A value of 3 indicates the potential for a severe thunderstorm. a value of 4 means the potential of tornado formation in those storms. As you can see right now WKY is around a 3. Look at the bottom right hand panel. That is for Friday. I will be back later this afternoon with and update. Everyone have a blessed day and stay weather aware for the next couple of days.
April 1, 201511 yr Author Everyone can track the possible severe storms here. http://bluegrasspreps.com/bluegrasspreps-coms-break/severe-weather-tracker-302245.html
April 1, 201511 yr Author some may see some thunderstorms around or after midnight tonight. These should be scattered in nature not looking for any severe storms. We may see multiple rounds of storms on Thursday the strong to severe storms could occur around mid afternoon and go into the evening hours. This is mainly for those west of the I-65 corridor. I'll update in the morning.
April 2, 201511 yr Author As expected the severe threat chance has increased. Especially for WKY. Today some parts of the state will could see scattered thunderstorms. The greatest threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will be later in the afternoon. As I said earlier the best chance seems to be in WKY. That part of the state is now in a enhanced area. The ingredients should come together for the formation of supercell and bowing thunderstorms. Large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible. These storms could last into the overnight hours. Day 1 Outlook Hail Outlook Damaging Wind Outlook Tornado Outlook
April 2, 201511 yr Author The severe threat should last into Friday. The area within the Enhanced area will be around the Bowling Green area. I will update as soon as I can throughout the day when the information warrants it. I have alert areas set up across the state so as soon as I get any information on a watch or warning issued I will post the info. Take care and stay weather aware the next couple of days.
April 2, 201511 yr Author Here's the thunderstorm outlook map. According to it the time frame for the best chance of strong to severe storms is from 3pm to midnight EDT.
April 2, 201511 yr Thanks for the update, especially the timing. Hopefully I can avoid the worst this afternoon.
April 2, 201511 yr Author From the NWS-Louisville office. We can expect some very heavy rain and with than flash flooding.
April 2, 201511 yr Author This looks to be an overnight into Friday morning event. Then it looks to fire up again on Friday afternoon. 8 pm to midnight midnight to 4 am 4 am to 8 am
April 2, 201511 yr Excellent timing for me! I'll garage the car when I get home, and I work from home tomorrow, so barring a tornado event, I should come out just fine!
April 2, 201511 yr Author Excellent timing for me! I'll garage the car when I get home, and I work from home tomorrow, so barring a tornado event, I should come out just fine! Now don't forget we'll be going through this again tomorrow afternoon. Maybe worst then. I was listening to a meterologist out of the NWS office a little while ago. He's saying we are going to see a huge amount of rain. He said tomorrow afternoon maybe the worst weather for Kentucky.
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