Technically, if Alabama and Oregon were to go to the national title game, the Rose doesn't have to pick a Pac-12 team and the Sugar doesn't have to pick an SEC team. But you can almost guarantee that they would. The only possible way they wouldn't (and this is about a 1% chance) would be if the Florida State/Clemson loser finished with only 1 loss and dominated all their opponents, but didn't win their division, while the SEC saw everyone beat everyone and they all had 2 or 3 losses. But even then, I'd still suspect the Sugar would pick an SEC team.

 

Yeah, sorry, should have been more specific. If the national championship shakes out like that, I don't see a situation in which the Rose doesn't take Stanford and the Sugar doesn't take another SEC team.

NIU finished the regular season with one loss. That was why it was such a joke they were invited to a BCS game. I am fine letting in a mid-major, but they have to be super impressive and certainly cannot lose a game en route to the bowl season.

 

And they only got in because the Big Ten and the Big East didn't have themselves together and both their champions finished behind NIU in the final BCS rankings.

There are a lot of variables at play here. NIU, they have no business going to any bowl outside of their conference tie-in. UL can make it if others have some bad losses and they must put up video game numbers the rest of the way. Can't have another UK game type performance. I think the best hope for teams looking to get in to the title game is for the SEC teams all having two losses.

 

Louisville definitely gets the nod because they beat Florida last year.

 

But based on this year only, UofL's body of work would be no better than UNI's. Their schedules are pretty even.

Louisville definitely gets the nod because they beat Florida last year.

 

But based on this year only, UofL's body of work would be no better than UNI's. Their schedules are pretty even.

 

One game against a lousy B1G team and the schedules are even?

 

Louisville's schedule isn't great, but the AAC is still much better than the MAC.

One game against a lousy B1G team and the schedules are even?

 

Louisville's schedule isn't great, but the AAC is still much better than the MAC.

 

2 lousy B1G teams. Iowa and Purdue.

 

Both conferences have 2 teams that lost to D-Iaa opponents.

 

Uconn just got the crap kicked out of them by a MAC school.

 

I agree the AAC is slightly better but it's not a huge gap.

Uconn just got the crap kicked out of them by a MAC school.

 

And UConn is arguably the worst team in the league -- though USF and Temple are making strong cases.

 

But the AAC doesn't have anyone nearly as bad as Miami. And the top of the league is miles better than the MAC. I'm fairly comfortable asserting that Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers and Central Florida would all win the MAC this season.

And UConn is arguably the worst team in the league -- though USF and Temple are making strong cases.

 

But the AAC doesn't have anyone nearly as bad as Miami. And the top of the league is miles better than the MAC. I'm fairly comfortable asserting that Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers and Central Florida would all win the MAC this season.

 

Louisville would.

 

I think Northern would beat UC and Rutgers. UCF would be a toss up. Don't forget, UC barely beat a bad Miami team.

So if the title game is Alabama-Oregon, then the conference-based automatic selections and replacement picks for the bowls that lost teams to the title are next on the list.

 

Orange gets the ACC champ.

Fiesta gets the Big XII champ.

Rose gets the B1G champ and the second selection from the PAC-12.

Sugar gets the SEC second selection.

 

So we're already in a situation where Louisville/NIU isn't likely to happen. The bowls will choose the remaining teams (unaffiliated AAC Champ plus two at-large selections) in the following order this year: Orange, Sugar, Fiesta.

So Louisville looks very likely to go to Orange or Fiesta IMO.....I'm cool with either...have a free place to stay in both locations.

So Louisville looks very likely to go to Orange or Fiesta IMO.....I'm cool with either...have a free place to stay in both locations.

 

If NIU goes unbeaten and sneaks into the BCS again, they're going to be the last pick, which this year would be the Fiesta. And somehow Oklahoma/NIU is even less appealing than FSU/NIU from last season.