Nathaniel Bryan

I will re-phrase:

What would it take to cause a Western Kentucky voter (and there plenty of them) to vote for a small-school kid with no major college offers nor a lot of hype for Mr. Football?

This isn't about most deserving or best stats (Nick Bohn set the national record for a big school and a strength of schedule that dwarfs ones played this year and was a mere afterthought).

It's about who the voters are and where they come from.

Given that, how would you sway these voters who you desperately need on your side?

As I have said before, Mr. Football voting is done by the statewide Associated Press members and not by coaches or a panel.

Northern Kentucky has 2 total votes that I know of -- and there's zero guarantee NKY voters promote/nominate Hergott over Jacob.

Mayer was a different beast last year. Two-way star. Bigger school. D1 offers galore.

If I had to guess some of the votes:

*Elizabethtown (Wright then Games)
*Somerset (Sharon first, Sloan a second-place vote; maybe Tristan Cox)
*Frankfort (Broyles)
*KPG (Long)
*Lexington (Burton or Crowdus)
*Danville (Gillis)
*Ashland (Pittman, Preston, Cline)
*Louisville (McElroy, Jack Dingle, Eli Blakey, Charlie Ely)
*Bowling Green (Jordan Dingle or Dunn)
*Hopkinsville (Reece Jesse)
*Owensboro (Parker Bates or Treyvon Tinsley; Wimsatt is 2022 class)

I'm not sure who lists Hergott second or if he could carry undecided Western Kentucky. I think Burton or Sharon takes some of the WKY votes. 

Mayfield/Fulton County is canceled.

28 minutes ago, colonel-fan said:

Agreed. It's odd that they would announce the district seedings already with Manual and X being virtually tied in RPI. 

One could argue that Scott County benefitted by not playing Douglass in the regular season by being rewarded with a district win and home field advantage in the playoffs.

They haven't announced the seedings.

RPI could change.

They are showing virtual outcomes based on latest RPI

Most districts' playoff seedings aren't completely listed or finalized:

https://khsaa.org/2020-football-district-standings/

So this link just went up:

https://khsaa.org/tie-breaking-game-results-non-played-2020-district-football-contests/

It uses up-to-date RPI for virtual games to be applied to district seedings/standings.

For example, Scott County and Douglass did not play. Scott County currently has higher RPI. So for their scheduled meeting, Scott County will get a win in district standings and Douglass will get a loss.

Notes:

1) Non-played virtual RPI outcomes do NOT count toward KHSAA scoreboard or overall final record

2) RPIs could change based on this week's games (and removal of games toward strength of schedule)

3) There were 61 non-played district games which would use this method to determine winners and losers for district standings

Notable "virtual outcomes":

*Shawnee would get a "virtual district seeding" win over Owen.
*Manual would be credited with win over St. Xavier
*Scott County would be credited with win over Frederick Douglass
*DeSales would be credited with losses to both CAL and Mercer
*Knox Central would be credited with a win over Wayne

Outside of Kentucky Enquirer (who could nominate and vote for Jacob), who among this group votes for Hergott:

The Daily Independent, Ashland
Daily News, Bowling Green
Kentucky Enquirer, Cincinnati
Times-Tribune, Corbin
The News-Enterprise, Elizabethtown
KPG Football, Owensboro
Daily Enterprise, Harlan
The Gleaner, Henderson
Lexington Herald-Leader, Lexington
Courier-Journal, Louisville
The Mayfield Messenger, Mayfield
The Ledger Independent, Maysville
Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer, Owensboro
The Paducah Sun, Paducah
WKYX, Paducah

Do people forget the same people who vote on the AP poll they rip on are also the Mr. Football selectors?

12 minutes ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

#1 vs #1 nice. My gut tells me LCA but I wouldn't be shocked with a Pikeville win. Pikeville has homefield so that's an advantage.

Game is AT Lexington Christian,  so home field for LCA.

14 minutes ago, ATLCat said:

Big week at the top of 3A... will really have big effects potentially on seedings.

- Etown plays a very good 5A North Bullitt team. If they win it will be a huge RPI bump.

- Belfry plays an undefeated 4A Johnson Central. Belfry will probably be an underdog in this but it would once again be a massive RPI boost if they won.

- Ashland plays a really tough Spring Valley, WV team. This one may not give Ashland the appropriate boost if they win, but with the way the RPi is calculated a loss could be massive for seeding (especially if the other mentioned teams win)  **EDIT** This one just got canceled.

- Russell has a tough 2A West Carter. Russell obviously still has to go to Ashland in the playoffs for the re-match, but they need a win to avoid further road games.

 

Elizabethtown also has larger John Hardin next week.
Winning record plus larger-class bonus.

HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL 🏈 

Elizabethtown leads at Bardstown midway thru 3Q, 33-0.

EHS QB Clay Games has passed for 3 TDs, ran for 1 TD.

E'town's Camden Williams has 2 INTs.

E'town's Cam McNeil has 1 rushing TD and 1 receiving TD

5 hours ago, Tigerpride94 said:

Yeah, first thing I thought when saw rescheduled. St.X options on 10/30 decreasing. Hope they find someone.

Henderson is open 10.30.

They're solid.

8 hours ago, gbballfan21 said:

One question before I even consider wasting my time answering any of this mess -- Have YOU seen him play? 

I've seen video.

Good player.

Should make a college very happy.

You do realize most of the voters are NOT going to have seen him play, right? Because Beechwood has made so many trips to Louisville or the mountains or Lexington or the Purchase.

99 percent of high school players are NOT the elite of the elite. 

And no small feat being a very good high school player -- which he definitely is.

I just have yet to see how he is pulling away when we have kids from bigger schools with better records with similar stats and better offers.

How is he "pulling away" and would you convince a non NKY person of that?

4 hours ago, Tigerpride94 said:

I’m hoping St.X will pick up North Hardin since NH was supposed to play PRP.

Would be a heck of a schedule switch in 2020 for North Hardin.

Add Frederick Douglass, Belfry, South Warren and X? Yeesh.

2 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

 Look at the list and rank the candidates for us. I'm interested in seeing how you think this year's candidates stack up versus reading your comments trying to knock down one kid.

I'm trying to figure out why we're pushing him.

He has the accuracy going for him.

Not the most mobile QB (see Belfry or Henderson).

Not the most TDs or best TD/Int (see Brady Clark of Bardstown, whose numbers are nuts for an unbeaten team from a bigger school).

Not the most passing yards per game (Broyles of Franklin would dwarf him if played same amount of games).

Not the best record or biggest school or toughest schedule (Another QB close by, Jacob, has him beat in all 3).

As far as SOS? You all didn't seem to think that highly of Ryle or Dixie Heights when 1-3 and just blasted by 30 Fern Creek jumped them in 6A rankings.

Not the best college offers, even if just limited to senior QBs.

Yet, somehow his combination is a frontrunner and pulling away? You think anyone West of 75 believes that?

I have no problem with him getting all-state votes.

I have no problem with him being KFCA Class Mr. Football.

But elite of the elite? Sorry, can't get there.

10 hours ago, ImJustHere said:

Sounds to me like Hergott played the better game when they’ve gone head to head this year. Hergott also can’t help his strength of schedule in regards to his district. Outside of it he has played phenomenal. Regardless I think this will be a popularity contest more than a stats driven award. Usually we see every year a front runner then everyone else a step or two back. This year seems very up in the open on who can take this award home. 

So a kid from a multiple-loss small school who is not in top 10 in QB rating, has a SOS rating over 40 and doesn't have many major offers is the Mr. Football FRONTRUNNER?

And he is pulling away?

This is the only site that is championing this possibility.

You all really need to look up Nick Bohn and see how Hergott stacks up. And Bohn had no shot at Mr. Football.

You all think Hergott is accurate? Bohn set the freaking national record. And did it against a schedule that blows Beechwood to oblivion. And again, he had no shot.

16 hours ago, laketime85 said:

Start the playoffs now. Take the top 8 RPI and play a three game playoff.  Everyone else can play another game if they choose.   It’s not ideal, but it makes sense. I’m not sure if you looked at RPI today you could find a contender outside of the top 8 from each class.  It would give us a chance to determine a champion and give the kids closure on a season.  Finals would be on the weekend of 11/14.  

Seeding based on RPI is horrible.

North Hardin had a better RPI than Trinity last season.

Guess Trinity upset North Hardin?

And KHSAA RPI for volleyball has Sacred Heart at ... 27th.

Sure. Sounds realistic.

2 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

Who should be ranked ahead of them?

I find it interesting that BluegrassPreps has the same 8 teams that are in the top 8 of CalPreps.com, just in different orders.

BGP 9 and 10 is where it gets whacky. Oldham is 15th in Cal and Fern Creek is 16th.

So I think you could consider 9 Dixie Heights (3-3), 10 Ryle (3-3), 11 Dunbar (3-1), 12 Simon Kenton (3-3), 13 Henderson (3-1), 14 PRP (2-2).

Dixie Heights (2 in Beechwood and Simon Kenton) and Ryle (2 in Dixie Heights and Campbell County) both have better wins than Fern Creek's best/only win.

CalPreps says Dunbar's win over Henry Clay is comparable to Fern Creek beating Bullitt East, but CalPreps says Lexington Christian (Dunbar's loss) is better than Fern Creek's losses to Oldham and Ballard ... when Fern Creek scored a whopping 1 combined TD.

Fern Creek lost by 30 and went up?!

On 10/21/2020 at 11:15 AM, colonel-fan said:

It would be interesting to add the CalPreps Strength of Schedule for each team to the writeup.

CalPreps/MaxPreps says Jacob has played a tougher schedule than Hergott, 2.3-1.8

http://calpreps.com/2020/ratings/Kentucky_all.htm

Beechwood's overall SOS is 41st in the state.

There are several players on this list with tougher schedules.

There are unlisted players with tougher schedules and better SOS.

According to MaxPreps' computer, Ashland played the weakest schedule of the top 19 teams in the final MaxPreps computer ratings released:

https://www.maxpreps.com/m/rankings/basketball/1/state/kentucky.htm

Also, *IF* Zek Montgomery and Darrius Washington are both gone from Fern Creek, I don't see Tigers as top five still:

On 10/13/2020 at 11:17 AM, Voice of Reason said:

The numbers make a great case for Cam and he has compiled those numbers against high quality opponents. He absolutely should be getting strong consideration.

I ran the numbers. Other than completion percentage, I'm not sure he is among the state's elite in anything.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EkTlvpcWoAI5sX3.jpg

Correction to original post:

North Hardin lost at Breathitt County in 2002, 48-12.

So North Hardin's third trip to the mountains in 20-ish seasons.

https://scoreboard.12dt.com/scoreboard/khsaa/kyfb2/12899

Here is Frederick Douglass' updated schedule (now showing the St. X home game on Nov. 6th) which was posted to twitter earlier this morning. I'm gonna guess fans will be able to watch on PrepSpin.

HIGH SCHOOL GIRLS BASKETBALL
COLLEGE OFFERS FOR CURRENT KENTUCKY PLAYERS | COMPILED BY @NATEINSPORTS
AT LEAST ONE (1) NCAA DIVISION-I OFFER
PLAYER	SCHOOL	YEAR	OFFERS	OFFERS FROM

Harley Paynter	Boyd County	2021	13	Charleston Southern, Evansville, Fairfield, Fresno St, Jacksonville St, Morehead St, Murray St, Navy, Samford, Southern Utah, Tennessee Tech, Toledo, WKU
Mya Meredith	Scott (NKY)	2021	10	EKU, FIU, Indiana St, Lipscomb, Middle Tennessee, Morehead St, Murray St, NKU, Syracuse, WKU
Mace Blevins	Wayne County	2021	9	Austin Peay, Chattanooga, Dayton, EKU, Indiana St, Marshall, NKU, Samford, WKU
Brooklyn Miles	Franklin County	2021	6	Cincinnati, Kentucky, Miami, NC State, Purdue, TENNESSEE
Amiya Jenkins	Anderson County	2022	6	+6
Cassidy Rowe	Shelby Valley	2021	5	Dayton, KENTUCKY, Murray St, Morehead St, NKU
Tiarra East	Butler	2021	5	Alabama A&M, Indiana St, Marshall, Murray St, SIU
Brie Crittendon	Ryle	2021	4	Austin Peay, Bellarmine, Chattanooga, EKU
Zakiyah Johnson	Shelby County	2025	3	Kentucky, Louisville, Northern Kentucky
Jaya McClure	Christian Academy-Louisville	2022	3	Arkansas-Pine Pluff, Bellarmine, Lipscomb
Haven Ford	Rowan County	2023	3	Marshall, Morehead State, NKU
Hayden Barrier	Montgomery County	2024	2	Eastern Kentucky, Morehead State
Shaelyn Steele	Russell Independent (NEKY)	2024	2	Eastern Kentucky, Marshall
Macy Runner	Nelson County	2023	2	Western Kentucky, +1
Whitney Lind	Cooper	2023	2	Charleston, NKU
Sydney Lockard	Dixie Heights	2021	3	Alabama A&M, Claflin, Thomas More
Elise Ellison-Coons	Paul Dunbar	2021	2	Charleston Southern, Pikeville
Rachel Presley	South Laurel	2022	2	Murray State, Pikeville
Trinity Rowe	Pikeville	2024	2	Eastern Kentucky, Pikeville
Leslie Baxter	Butler	2021	1	Alabama A&M
Emma Egan	Bullitt East	2022	1	Bellarmine
JaKayla Thompson	DuPont Manual	2023	1	Eastern Kentucky
Audrey Biggs	Boyd County	2024	1	Marshall
Kennedy Lee	DuPont Manual	2022	1	Niagara
Marie Kiefer	Bishop Brossart	2021	1	Northern Kentucky
Macey Feldman	Notre Dame	2022	1	Northern Kentucky
Jaileyah Cotton	Bardstown	2022	1	Northern Kentucky
Destiny Thomas	McCracken County	2023	1	Northern Kentucky
Timberlynn Yeast	Mercer County	2023	1	Northern Kentucky
Kay Freihofer	Cooper	2023	1	Northern Kentucky
Jacqueline Jackson	Greenwood	2021	1	Western Kentucky
Abby Holtman	Ryle	2023	1	Wright State

OTHER (NON-NCAA D1) OFFERS
PLAYER	SCHOOL	YEAR	OFFERS	OFFERS FROM
Laci Reinhart	Dixie Heights	2021	11	Bethel (KS), Crowley's Ridge, Georgetown, IU-Southeast, Johnson, Ky Christian, Oakland City, Ohio Christian, Rochester, Thomas More, Union
Morgan Marie Flanagan	St. Henry	2021	5	Grace Christian, Johnson, Lincoln Christian, St. Louis Pharmacy, Union
Rory O'Hara	Highlands	2021	5	Crowley's Ridge, Florida Southern, Oakland City, Rochester, Union
Kaeli Ross	Russell Independent (NEKY)	2021	4	Georgetown. Pikeville, Point Park, Rio Grande
Kenzie Herald	Owsley County	2021	4	Barclay, Dyersburg St, Southwestern Illinois, Union
Selena Granado	Bullitt East	2021	4	Georgetown, IU-East, IU-Southeast, Union
Sofia Allen	Scott (NKY)	2021	3	Georgetown, Tampa, Thomas More
Kenzie Maynard	Belfry	2021	3	Alice Lloyd, Lindsey Wilson, Pikeville
Alyssa Elswick	Shelby Valley	2022	2	Kentucky Christian, Pikeville
Bailey Rucker	Boyd County	2021	2	Gordon, Pikeville
Chelsey Napier	Perry County Central	2021	2	CUMBERLANDS, Union
Jaiden Cox	Union County	2021	2	Cumberlands, Pikeville
Katie Moore	Floyd Central	2021	2	Alice Lloyd, Rio Grande
Mia Hale	Estill County	2022	2	Kentucky Christian, Union
Sophie Smith	Anderson County	2021	2	Campbellsville, Georgetown
Shelby Stewart	Corbin	2021	1	Alice Lloyd
Braylee McMath	Great Crossing	2021	1	Christian Brothers
Kylie Jackson	Green County	2021	1	Columbia International
Whitney Caldwell	Pineville	2021	1	CUMBERLANDS
Casey Coleman	Rockcastle County	2021	1	CUMBERLANDS
Amelia Hodges	Bethlehem	2021	1	Lindsey Wilson
Camryn Preston	Danville	2021	1	Lindsey Wilson
Kyera Thornsbury	Belfry	2024	1	Pikeville
Sammi Sites	Johnson Central//Martin Co	2021	1	Pikeville
Alexa Smith	Southwestern	2021	1	TREVECCA NAZARENE
Brianna (Bree) Howard	South Laurel	2021	1	Union
Jenna Gallimore	Meade County	2021	1	WEST FLORIDA
Clara Collins	South Laurel	2023	NA	NA
Marissa Gasaway	Eastern	2021	NA	NA
Halle Collins	North Laurel	2025	NA	NA

Foreign exchange is excluded from the parental move.

Getting basketball players from all over America and multi-year players from Africa (instead of single-season, like foreign exchange) is different though.

Louisville Holy Cross has dorms.

The players at Aspire attend Holy Cross and play for Aspire.

They would never be eligible at Holy Cross.

Cordia is not the same type of school as Oneida Baptist. Cordia is part of the Knott County school district. OBI is a private religious based school and has dorms on their campus. I think over half of their students, probably more, are form outside Clay County. Many are international students.

Doesn't matter.

Kids can go to school there if they want.

If basketball kids start transferring in and their parents aren't buying new houses (cutting ties to old location completely) or not getting jobs in the Knott County area, red flags are gonna go up.

Dorms don't make a darn bit of difference.

It's where the parents and family live and where the parents work in order to drop the transfer sitout rule.

OBI is a difficult place to build team continuity in their programs because they never know from one year to the next who will be on campus playing sports for the school. They are a parochial school with dorms and many of their teams have a different look every year.

I know one thing though, if the school wanted to they could build a basketball powerhouse. The way their school is set up with on campus dorms and all they could be a mini version of Oak Hill Academy if they so chose, and had a coach with free reign to ‘entice‘ skilled players to come there. And I believe it would all be within KSHAA rules and regulations.

Cordia already tried it.

Becoming another Oak Hill is hard with KHSAA enrollment and transfer criteria. Mainly the parents having to change jobs or buy a new house (monthly leases don't count) and give up all ties to former residence.